Tick tock... tick tock

[BillsCarnage]

Buried way down in the news over the last few days is that the Feds have pumped $128B into the financial markets.

Dodd-Frank doing what it do.

 

[Absolute Zero]

Buried way down in the news over the last few days is that the Feds have pumped $128B into the financial markets.

Dodd-Frank doing what it do.

Crazy how many times the fed has acted to keep the economy above water. How do you see this playing out?

 

[dscher]

Crazy how many times the fed has acted to keep the economy above water. How do you see this playing out?

Like part of his name implies.. Carnage.... unfortunately.

 

[BillsCarnage]

Crazy how many times the fed has acted to keep the economy above water. How do you see this playing out?

Like part of his name implies.. Carnage.... unfortunately.

Yeah, the proverbial ice will break at some point. The Feds haven't pumped that much into the market since 2008/09ish.

 

[Jersey Girl]

So, I guess this might be a good time to move some of my investments into more conservative accounts????

 

[dscher]

So, I guess this might be a good time to move some of my investments into more conservative accounts????

Imo, it would be wise right about now.. I could go into detail, but long story short is.. the risk reward profile of the overall market is extremely not worth it currently. Jmo though..

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Imo, it would be wise right about now.. I could go into detail, but long story short is.. the risk reward profile of the overall market is extremely not worth it currently. Jmo though..

Eh I’d take that statement with a grain of salt. It depends upon your time horizon. Market timing is a dangerous game.

 

[dscher]

Eh I’d take that statement with a grain of salt. It depends upon your time horizon. Market timing is a dangerous game.

Completely agree. But she asked if it was time to be more conservative...and imo, based on my ability to market time was to take that approach. But if you don't think technical analysis is worth your time in general, I tell most people to allocate a good portion to both stocks and bonds and call it a day.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Completely agree. But she asked if it was time to be more conservative...and imo, based on my ability to market time was to take that approach. But if you don't think technical analysis is worth your time in general, I tell most people to allocate a good portion to both stocks and bonds and call it a day.

Technical analysis sure. But she posed a pretty broad question. Without knowing how aggressive or conservative she’s currently invested I think it’s difficult to answer her question with a “yes.”

 

[dscher]

Technical analysis sure. But she posed a pretty broad question. Without knowing how aggressive or conservative she’s currently invested I think it’s difficult to answer her question with a “yes.”

We all have our opinions. Mine answer would be a yes based on what I see currently. I would assume the average investor has a decent percentage of their portfolios exposed to the stock market... If her question was based on reallocation to prepare for a downturn, then I would strongly consider it, based on my opinion of course.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

We all have our opinions. Mine answer would be a yes based on what I see currently. I would assume the average investor has a decent percentage of their portfolios exposed to the stock market... If her question was based on reallocation to prepare for a downturn, then I would strongly consider it, based on my opinion of course.

I suppose as an investment advisor I shudder at generalized recommendations that don’t take an individual’s actual set of facts into consideration or fail to undertake a suitability analysis. When it comes to investing there are, frankly imo, too many variables for generalizations.

 

[dscher]

I suppose as an investment advisor I shudder at generalized recommendations that don’t take an individual’s actual set of facts into consideration or fail to undertake a suitability analysis. When it comes to investing there are, frankly imo, too many variables for generalizations.

Lol.. I hear ya man. Im pretty well educated on the markets and investments in general.. so I don't take this lightly .. Now, tax consequences and such are a different ballgame and in that sense everyone should consult a tax pro with such decisions. Once again, this is a message board.. opinions abound.. Every one here is capable of making their own decisions for their individual circumstances. All I was doing was offering an opinion of mine to a question of hers... but we can agree to disagree though.. no problemo.

 

[Dr. Jones]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/o...ar-market-2019-12-18?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Stanley Druckenmiller, one of Wall Street’s most successful investors, acknowledges that the markets are riding high and that investors may be able to finally breathe freely in the short term after a number of shocks, but says investors should be wary of three events that could knock assets into a bear market.

“One of the reasons I’m pretty sanguine right now is I think we’re close enough to the election, at least we can breathe for a few months,” he told Bloomberg Television during a recent interview.

 

[Folster]

Imo, it would be wise right about now.. I could go into detail, but long story short is.. the risk reward profile of the overall market is extremely not worth it currently. Jmo though..

I remember a conversation we had this spring in which you stated you pulled out of the market in November 2018 and missed the correction in December. I'm curious, did you ever get back in or have you missed out on the US market's nearly 30% return this year?

 

[dscher]

I remember a conversation we had this spring in which you stated you pulled out of the market in November 2018 and missed the correction in December. I'm curious, did you ever get back in or have you missed out on the US market's nearly 30% return this year?

I'm actually short the market and long gold miners since October for the foreseeable future. Went long treasury bonds since November of 2018 and was part of that huge run-up. Consolidating now before the next big move up imo along with gold.

 

[Folster]

I'm actually short the market and long gold miners since October for the foreseeable future. Went long treasury bonds since November of 2018 and was part of that huge run-up. Consolidating now before the next big move up imo along with gold.

YTD, have you outperformed the US market?

 

[dscher]

YTD, have you outperformed the US market?

Not for this year. But being out of the December decline along with being in t bonds allowed me to sleep well at night , personally. But I'm positioning for the future and don't care about small drawdowns at the moment for any continued upside we might have.

 

[Folster]

Not for this year. But being out of the December decline along with being in t bonds allowed me to sleep well at night , personally. But I'm positioning for the future and don't care about small drawdowns at the moment for any continued upside we might have.

Best of luck to you.

 

[dscher]

Best of luck to you.

Thanks. Likewise.

 

[dscher]

Sorry to bump a thread here.. but just felt I had to come back with a final warning. I'm not trying to sound dire or strike fear, but more of an awareness to all my fellow ASFNers...

I have leading sentiment indicators that have diverged strongly from the stock market to the likes I have never seen..in charts dating back to the great depression! Charting and ta are fractal by nature, so these long term conditions can't be discounted imo. Of course this MAY not play out how I think...but as I said, just having awareness of both scenarios is of utmost importance, especially in the new set of economic conditions we are in with a global pandemic. Take care everyone and good luck.

 

[Superbone]

Way to feed the panic. I'm not doing a thing. This will just be a blip on the radar in a few years.

 

[dscher]

Way to feed the panic. I'm not doing a thing. This will just be a blip on the radar in a few years.

Awareness is not panic in my book. I'm just sharing my own personal insights and opinions because I like trying to help people with some of the things I have learned over the years. But to each their own. We all obviously need to do what's best for our own personal situations. Take care.

 

[BigRedRage]

Way to feed the panic. I'm not doing a thing. This will just be a blip on the radar in a few years.

things are already tipping upward and during an emotional sell off you should never sell off with everyone. In fact, I started buying and its already paying off. Maybe if the market had turned for a real reason. This market turn was pure emotion.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

And this is why trying to time the market is so stupid. Know how many people likely were still selling early today? Missed run up of close to 1300 points. If you’ve got time horizon, do not panic.

 

[Absolute Zero]

So now what?