This game will be a treatise of KK's offensive "genius".

Discussion in 'Arizona Cardinals' started by phillycard, Oct 16, 2020.

  1. BritCard

    BritCard Registered

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    They conveniently left out Ryan Fitzpatrick is #4 and that in 2018 Mitch Trubisky was #3 on the season.

    QBR heavily favours running QBs. I don't feel its an accurate barometer.
     
  2. football karma

    football karma Happy in the pretense of knowledge

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    its useful because passer rating doesnt give him credit for his running -- 300 yards at 7 ypc and 5 tds ought to go into the mix
     
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  3. Solar7

    Solar7 Also Skeptical

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    But not in evaluation as a quarterback. That's an overall player evaluation. It also doesn't have a set baseline against other QBs. It's based off of a mostly qualitative analysis of what the potential opportunity is on a play.

    I mean, again, it's the same basic equivalent as a PFF grade. It's not a true, raw statistic.

    This is a good breakdown:

    https://www.hogshaven.com/2018/3/13...rback-rating-redskins-alex-smith-kirk-cousins
     
  4. football karma

    football karma Happy in the pretense of knowledge

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    i might buy that for one game -- where, out of character, a QB runs for 50 yards and a td. QBR in that situation likely makes the QB look better than what can be expected.

    but running is an integral part of K1s game. he consistently adds yardage with his legs -- and that has to be considered.
     
  5. BritCard

    BritCard Registered

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    QBR is better than passer rating for running QBs obviously but neither are particularly good for ranking a QBs ability. There are lots of examples of good ratings in bad games and vice versa. Heck Kyler's best passer rating is in his worst game.
     
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  6. slanidrac16

    slanidrac16 Registered User Contributor

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    If Elliot goes off for 150 yards we cooked.
    Here’s what worries me. We receive the kickoff and go 3 and out. Dallas gets the ball and has a 10 play 7 minute drive. We get the ball go no huddle 3 and out and put this defense right back on the field in under a minute.

    Our defense is not going to stop Dallas. We need a couple of time consuming drives to help our defense.
    I also think we are going to need 38 points to win this game.
     
  7. Solar7

    Solar7 Also Skeptical

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    The problem is that QBR literally is impacted by gameflow and down and distance. Going for it on 4th down early in the game might have different weight than going for it in the 4th quarter... an excerpt from the above site:

    "EPA is calculated based on the down, distance, and the yard line at snap, with each combination having its own point value. The point values are the average net point advantage the team on offense can expect given the particular down, distance, and field position. For example, a 1st and goal chance on the opponent’s’ 1 yard line heavily favors the offense, yielding a positive point value. On the other hand, a 3rd and 9 on the team’s own 3 yard line is heavily negative because it drastically favors the opponent.

    The value of each play’s outcome is measured by the snap-to-snap change in expected points. This is called Expected Points Added. The Expected Points Added (or lost) in each play are divided among the contributing players on the field based on the role of each player and the type of play. Deeper throws give a higher share of credit to the QB, while screen passes give relatively less credit to the QB and more to the receiver.

    Plays that occur in “trash time” are discounted by as much as 30%. Trash time is measured based on the leverage of each play which is primarily a function of score, time, and field position. Important, critical plays that are likely to change the outcome have high leverage, while plays that occur after the game has largely been already decided have low leverage. QBR discounts low leverage plays, but does not boost credit for “clutch” plays."

    Who is arbitrarily defining "trash time?" When does that begin? If the team is down by 30 but comes back just to lose by 3, is that all "trash time?" Does Kyler's QBR in his first game against the Lions take a 20 point swing depending on if they tie it up or not? Expected points added? So a player's QBR takes a hit if the OC calls a screen pass?

    It's just not statistically clean. As someone who works with data analytics, this is the kind of metric for success that drives me wild. (Sorry for the long post! Too much coffee.)
     
  8. GuernseyCard

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    It's not a theory, it's a fact spoken to by QB's and Coordinators in the past. And there are verbal instructions, word, a number that can be used to move from play one to two. What does "Omaha" mean or "Omaha, Omaha", or "Omaha, Omaha, Omaha"?
     
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  9. WisconsinCard

    WisconsinCard Herfin BIg Time Contributor

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    No going to argue with you, but you're wrong to think is not a way of calling an audible. I mean the only way it works as a ruse is if you only have one play called in the huddle. So you cant kill the only play you have called.

    https://www.viqtorysports.com/what-does-kill-kill-mean-in-football/


    The complexity has made it’s way into play-calling. Offensive coordinators will now call 2 plays in the huddle. The quarterback will then get to the line of scrimmage and determine which play should be run. A few variables that go into switching the play…

    • Defensive Front
    • Linebacker Alignment
    • Coverage
    • Blitzing Threat
    • Mismatch
    The term “Kill Kill” refers to the quarterback checking to the second play. They will yell the word kill to tell the entire offense that the first play is no longer live, and that he’s switching it to the second play. It’s important for the quarterback to signal both physically and verbally to his teammates that he’s changing the play, or defensive players may be left unblocked.
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2020
  10. WisconsinCard

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  11. phillycard

    phillycard Registered

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    This....
     
  12. PACardsFan

    PACardsFan Registered User

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    I'm not sure 38 will be enough. I would venture to say 42-45 may be necessary. The Cowboys will be aggressive coming after KK. KK will need to make them pay with his legs. It'll be a tough game. Dallas will be playing for Dak & the officiating will be horrendous. You can count on that.
     
  13. BritCard

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    Kliff's offense has never scored more that 32 points. It's too slow and methodical to score more on it's own, especially with the number of stalled drives we have from penalties.

    Without a defensive or ST touchdown to help (which we haven't had in how long?) then I can't see us breaking 32. Not without a considerable change in how deep we throw.
     
  14. New Mexico

    New Mexico Fan since 1976ish

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    I think this is going to be a brutal game to watch because we're not going to get any pressure on AD, and that WR core is going to run wild on our secondary. And I just don't trust our offense to put up enough points to win the game.
     
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  15. FB94

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    The last sentence says it all for me. We have got to throw the ball deep more, less sideways. Take a shot or two or three. Let Hop go up and get it.
     
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