The Rosen Problem

Chris_Sanders

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So the more I am forced to analyze Kyler Murray, the more I have to look at Rosen.

Do we have a franchise QB already?


Here is where he ranked last year. It's dreadful btw...

Kliff Kingsbury will have to be a miracle worker to get to league average.


https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/josh-rosen/

Josh's rankings last year:

28th in air yards
25th in pass attempt distance
23rd in money throws
19th in interceptable passes
16 in danger plays (where QB took unnecessary risks)
30 in expected pass TDs
36 in adjusted yards per attempt
36 in true completion percentage
36 in Play action passes
51(!!) in Red Zone completion
30 in Deep Ball percentage
22 in Pressured Completion Percentage
36 in Production Premium
35 in True Passer Rating
34 in Accuracy Rating

Not a single advanced stat above league average. Not a one.

The inaccuracy is staggering.
 

BW52

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So the more I am forced to analyze Kyler Murray, the more I have to look at Rosen.

Do we have a franchise QB already?


Here is where he ranked last year. It's dreadful btw...

Kliff Kingsbury will have to be a miracle worker to get to league average.


https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/josh-rosen/

Josh's rankings last year:

28th in air yards
25th in pass attempt distance
23rd in money throws
19th in interceptable passes
16 in danger plays (where QB took unnecessary risks)
30 in expected pass TDs
36 in adjusted yards per attempt
36 in true completion percentage
36 in Play action passes
51(!!) in Red Zone completion
30 in Deep Ball percentage
22 in Pressured Completion Percentage
36 in Production Premium
35 in True Passer Rating
34 in Accuracy Rating

Not a single advanced stat above league average. Not a one.

The inaccuracy is staggering.

And making a judgement without considering the situation/circumstances etc is premature and pure folly.Giving up on Rosen after one year in the possibly worst situation in the NFl last year and then turning around and drafting a historically short /small QB would be beyond stupid.
 

Shane

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Really less an indictment of Rosen and more of the team around him and the miserable coaching staff.

No rookie would flourish under those conditions. Not ONE! The most pressured QB in the league. I think you know that too. Thats why so many compare him to Goff and his rookie year (which was worse) and under miserable coaching and player conditions under jeff Fisher. Even Todd Gurley was made to look pedestrian. (remind you of last years David Johnson)

Yet as people like Chopper and others have said you saw some bright moments in there even under those conditions with elite NFL throws.

He has everything you need. Just need a staff that and players around him that will allow him to succeed.
 
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Chris_Sanders

Chris_Sanders

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You understand advanced analytics looks at the situation right?

That is these stats:


23rd in money throws
19th in interceptable passes
16 in danger plays (where QB took unnecessary risks)
30 in expected pass TDs
36 in Production Premium


His situation was definitely poor. Rosen's accuracy was also poor.

How much do you really believe he is going to improve here?
 

Shane

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You understand advanced analytics looks at the situation right?

That is these stats:


23rd in money throws
19th in interceptable passes
16 in danger plays (where QB took unnecessary risks)
30 in expected pass TDs
36 in Production Premium


His situation was definitely poor. Rosen's accuracy was also poor.

How much do you really believe he is going to improve here?

A lot.. When you are constantly under pressure and you get happy feet to no fault of your own your accuracy will be affected. BIG PICTURE.
 

GuernseyCard

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You understand advanced analytics looks at the situation right?

That is these stats:


23rd in money throws
19th in interceptable passes
16 in danger plays (where QB took unnecessary risks)
30 in expected pass TDs
36 in Production Premium


His situation was definitely poor. Rosen's accuracy was also poor.

How much do you really believe he is going to improve here?

Now give us the sack and pressure stats and reduce them by half and you'll have an answer to his improvement.
 

Solar7

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I'm not going to spend a lot of time stumping for Rosen. I felt I saw some good throws and good moments, and that the entire team was a wreck.

But that doesn't make me believe in Kyler as the alternative. If we were talking about Haskins, I might be more prone to listen. Plus I see it this way...

If Rosen sucks this year, we'll be all but last again next year. Then we can draft Tua. If Kyler fails? We have no option but to continue to roll with him.
 

BW52

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You understand advanced analytics looks at the situation right?

That is these stats:


23rd in money throws
19th in interceptable passes
16 in danger plays (where QB took unnecessary risks)
30 in expected pass TDs
36 in Production Premium


His situation was definitely poor. Rosen's accuracy was also poor.

How much do you really believe he is going to improve here?


So in your opinion he isn`t going to improve enough to be the QBOF? You think Murray will come in and do that?Seems like you have given up on Rosen after one season.
 

TJ

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I saw Rosen make enough big boy throws to convince me that the analytics are dogshit. Dude had a number of passes that looked like Carson Palmer, where he threaded the needle. Oddly, most of those were to Ricky Seals-Jones, who dropped or misplayed most of those passes
 

Shane

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I saw Rosen make enough big boy throws to convince me that the analytics are dogshit. Dude had a number of passes that looked like Carson Palmer, where he threaded the needle. Oddly, most of those were to Ricky Seals-Jones, who dropped or misplayed most of those passes

Yea the sheer # of dropped balls last year was mind boggling bad.
 
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Chris_Sanders

Chris_Sanders

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Really less an indictment of Rosen and more of the team around him and the miserable coaching staff.

No rookie would flourish under those conditions. Not ONE! The most pressured QB in the league. I think you know that too. Thats why so many compare him to Goff and his rookie year (which was worse) and under miserable coaching and player conditions under jeff Fisher. Even Todd Gurley was made to look pedestrian. (remind you of last years David Johnson)

Yet as people like Chopper and others have said you saw some bright moments in there even under those conditions with elite NFL throws.

He has everything you need. Just need a staff that and players around him that will allow him to succeed.

Except he doesn't. He is really inaccurate. The numbers and the game film back it up.

He had a bad completion percentage even in a clean pocket. His decision making beyond questionable.

Ready for these advanced stats?

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RoseJo01.htm#all_passing_advanced

100 is league average.

Yards Per Attempt 72
Net Yards Per Attempt 67
Adjusted Yards Per Attempt 66
Completion Percentage 70
TD% 82
INT 80
Sack% 74
Rate 69

Every single measurable stat WELL below league average.

There is nothing to point to and say "Well look here is what he did well and that gives us hope"

QBR: 25.9 33rd in the league
 

Jetstream Green

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The Rosen problem is called the Murray hype. It's called the rest of the nation and media which really do not have a interest in the Cardinals and seem to be forced to irritation when we do do well but would rather ignore us even then. This is about everyone else finding reasons to be entertained by the Cardinals and actually not caring if they win. If Murray was not in this draft, we would not be having all these critical observations of doom and gloom about the rookie QB and we would see him in the context of our other players who were all part of the Wilks debacle
 

BW52

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I guess "wonderboy Murray' will just come in and take the NFL by storm,wrecking,pillaging and leaving the league in awe of his mighty arm and supernatural athletic ability.Never get sacked or pressured and his receivers never drop passes while stampeding over the rest of the league.:biglaugh::sarcasm:
 

Shane

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Except he doesn't. He is really inaccurate. The numbers and the game film back it up.

He had a bad completion percentage even in a clean pocket. His decision making beyond questionable.

Ready for these advanced stats?

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RoseJo01.htm#all_passing_advanced

100 is league average.

Yards Per Attempt 72
Net Yards Per Attempt 67
Adjusted Yards Per Attempt 66
Completion Percentage 70
TD% 82
INT 80
Sack% 74
Rate 69

Every single measurable stat WELL below league average.

There is nothing to point to and say "Well look here is what he did well and that gives us hope"

QBR: 25.9 33rd in the league

Are you relying too much on stats if you can’t look at the big picture there’s no point in discussing with you… Go pull up the same stats for Jared Goff in his first year tell me what you come back with?
 
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Chris_Sanders

Chris_Sanders

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When I watched the PFF review of Rosen they basically said his ceiling is around QB 15.

Seemed crazy right? Best he can do...is that right?

That is an across the board in every measurable stat 20 QB improvement.

They are absolutely correct.
 

Arz101

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Those stats are depressing. Rosen has a big year coming up. It's get better or go home time for Rosen.
 
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Chris_Sanders

Chris_Sanders

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Are you relying too much on stats if you can’t look at the big picture there’s no point in discussing with you… Go pull up the same stats for Jared Goff in his first year tell me what you come back with?

I am certainly not relying on my fandom and bias.

That is literally all we have with Rosen. Fandom, Bias, and Hope.
 

Jetstream Green

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Except he doesn't. He is really inaccurate. The numbers and the game film back it up.

He had a bad completion percentage even in a clean pocket. His decision making beyond questionable.

Ready for these advanced stats?

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RoseJo01.htm#all_passing_advanced

100 is league average.

Yards Per Attempt 72
Net Yards Per Attempt 67
Adjusted Yards Per Attempt 66
Completion Percentage 70
TD% 82
INT 80
Sack% 74
Rate 69

Every single measurable stat WELL below league average.

There is nothing to point to and say "Well look here is what he did well and that gives us hope"

QBR: 25.9 33rd in the league

How many times do you think our myriad of late round, took too early in the draft, and undrafted inexperienced WRs ran the right route or did anything to come back to help their QB under pressure (that drove me nuts, they would run some kind of route and then just stand there while Rosen was under duress just looking at him). You do not know the plays and the routes, so it's hard to say it's all on Rosen. I mean other than Fitz and Kirk who was still a rookie, our WRs where trash and seemed like our OL who had to play would not even be on some teams' depth chart... then throw in Wilks and you really have the perfect storm
 

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