The Market 2022-2023-2024

BigRedRage

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It's the TSLA fanbois and Elon hype that gives me pause on dumping it. Everything I have I bought in summer of 2020. So I've done well with it. I've slowly trimmed my position since at one point it was 35% of of my play account due to the way it shot up in fall of 2020 after their last split. I've never been super comfortable though with them because I don't trust it not to be very volatile. I'm not surprised by $100 swing either way on it in a day.

The other thing that has me curious on it is the upcoming split. The last one worked out well since it let retail in cheaper. I'm not sure though if that was the fanboi affect, stimulus driven, or a combo of them. If we get a good run here it might be smart to sell off and then buy back in before the split if it looks like it might be fanboi affect.
This split is only 3-1 so I dont see the same action happening.

The company is only getting better and better every quarter though and the truck/semi will be massive IMO.

Then, you also have to not just look at auto manufacturing. The megapacks alone are massive future products. Hawaii just said they will be shutting down all coal and switching to megapacks for the whole island.
 
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Roku is down 25% after hours. Cathie Wood has 8% exposure across her funds. Ouch again! I believe she just added to the position after selling COIN as well.
 

Devilmaycare

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Maybe there's hope. Apple's numbers were good with revenue $83B vs $82.7 expected and EPS at $1.20 vs $1.16. Some of their segments were down a little year over year but that's not too surprising with what's going on. Let's see what their guidance looks like now on the call.

So far I'm relieved a bit because I think if they had bad numbers it would tanked everything.
 
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Cathie has some company from me. INTC down pretty big after a huge drop in revenue. I will need to dig in.
 
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Cathie has some company from me. INTC down pretty big after a huge drop in revenue. I will need to dig in.

I guess I am Even Steven because AMZN is up over 12% after hours. I needed that.
 

82CardsGrad

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I guess I am Even Steven because AMZN is up over 12% after hours. I needed that.
I think with Intel, the question lingers... is it a great value (with a less than 7 PE), or is it a value trap? I really, REALLY like Gelsinger, so I'm rooting for the guy. And with that PE, it's hard to fight the urge to jump all over this stock...
 

elindholm

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Cathie has some company from me. INTC down pretty big after a huge drop in revenue. I will need to dig in.
I've completely lost faith in INTC. It seems like a tech stock has to have buzz in order to have any upside, and INTC's buzz is gone. It may still be decent value, but only as a boring defensive stock, a poor man's IBM.
 
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I've completely lost faith in INTC. It seems like a tech stock has to have buzz in order to have any upside, and INTC's buzz is gone. It may still be decent value, but only as a boring defensive stock, a poor man's IBM.
This was the same sentiment surrounding MSFT in the mid to late 00's.
 

elindholm

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This was the same sentiment surrounding MSFT in the mid to late 00's.
We'll have to see. Microsoft never left the world top ten and was only very briefly out of the top five. Intel is already a full generation past its peak.

Edit: This is a fun graphic if you haven't seen it:
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elindholm

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I couldn't stand PARA anymore, so I swapped it out for EWY, a South Korea ETF that has Samsung as its dominant holding. I haven't done well in foreign markets, but this one seems less speculative than most, and adquately liquid from what I can tell.
 

Russ Smith

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Reading a story now that says the big electric trucks that TSLA etc are coming out with will get up to 40K in incentives from the government.
 
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Reading a story now that says the big electric trucks that TSLA etc are coming out with will get up to 40K in incentives from the government.
Another reason why I won't bet against TSLA or EVs. The government has their finger on the scale. But the same is happening with chips so I can't really complain.
 

Russ Smith

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Another reason why I won't bet against TSLA or EVs. The government has their finger on the scale. But the same is happening with chips so I can't really complain.

I should clarify I mean the big rig trucks. But yes that was how TSLA made money in the beginning all the credits they sold for having emission free cars. They sold them to other car manufacturers who didn't.

But yes I would assume those subsidies will make them more attractive to buyers
 

elindholm

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But yes I would assume those subsidies will make them more attractive to buyers

Maybe, but I think that's a scam. Prices are always calibrated to what the consumer is willing to pay. We invested in solar panels for the house about 15 years ago, because California (and maybe also the federal government?) was doing a big push will all sorts of tax rebates. But guess what -- all the vendors did was account for those discounts in their own pricing. It looked like the incentive money was coming to the consumer, but really it wasn't; it was just getting routed via the consumer to the vendor, because the vendor now knew that they could charge a lot more and still get buyers.
 
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We meet again...

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I get moving averages to smooth out volatility, but what is special about that line and why is the slope more significant than the infinite other slopes that could have be drawn?

And what does it tell us about the future to help an investor? I'm guessing it tells us it will either test and break through or test and fall back down. So it will either go up or down. Weeks from now you'll be able to look back and say see it tested this line and broke out or retreated or the slope of the line will be changed.
 

dscher

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I get moving averages to smooth out volatility, but what is special about that line and why is the slope more significant than the infinite other slopes that could have be drawn?

And what does it tell us about the future to help an investor? I'm guessing it tells us it will either test and break through or test and fall back down. So it will either go up or down. Weeks from now you'll be able to look back and say see it tested this line and broke out or retreated or the slope of the line will be changed.
Technicals, yes, are like a windsock. It's not a crystal ball. For the same reasons many fundamental investors can fail. It's an art form and a science at the same time. It's why I'm a proponent of both if ones so inclined. If you become well versed in both it increases your probabilities to make money and make sound decisions. IMO.

The thing with the specific line I have mentioned here is that price has had many reactions off of it. From the upside and downside. That becomes and makes it more relevant. More tags in certain technical analysis patterns and trend lines, the more useful. That's the general idea based on decades of research. Second, it's a downward slopping trend line with a head and shoulders pattern that signals distribution. What can this do for someone who incorporates both? Many things. If you respect that trend line, then you probably don't put new money to work. If you don't, then you potentially put money to work into these precarious spots and we reject hard off this level. MSM will state it was this, or that.. instead it will be what it always has been. A game of supply and demand. That's what moving averages and well respected trend lines show.

Technicals aren't for everyone. I get it. But, neither are fundamentals.
 

BigRedRage

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The market is so boring right now. I like it a lot more than the falling knives
 

Devilmaycare

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This isn't good and why I think we might get a double dip recession. My gut says that consumer debt is going to hit bad in the middle of the first dip.

 

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