The Market 2022-2023-2024

elindholm

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Damn! T down big today after earnings.
I held T for quite a while, finally gave up on it, and don't miss it. Below 20, wow, that's brutal! I'll probably be saying the same thing about PARA, if I can ever get out from under it.

NFLX up 22.7% since I bought it on June 10. It's now my best-performing stock of the year.
 

elindholm

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MMM is spinning off its health care business, which I guess is supposed to make New 3M leaner and meaner. It's up 7% today and presumably we'll get a small stake in the new health care stock, imaginatively called Health Care, once everything settles out. But that could take more than a year. Patience will be required!

 
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MMM is spinning off its health care business, which I guess is supposed to make New 3M leaner and meaner. It's up 7% today and presumably we'll get a small stake in the new health care stock, imaginatively called Health Care, once everything settles out. But that could take more than a year. Patience will be required!


I saw this morning. Not sure what to think of it. Hopefully it will unlock some value and trade at a higher multiple. I'll have to read some analyst opinions and take another look at their 10K to get a better sense of what the health care division is/does.
 

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Nasdaq up big today after Powell. Post fed and GDP print tomorrow should make for a potentially more interesting day than today.. Most fed meetings are the initial jump reaction followed by the next day to digest. I'll have the clowns of CNBC on all day to watch the spin.
 
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dscher

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Annotated this chart just a couple days...and voila. Right back up to the trend line on NDX. We have a decision to make here soon....or it's new lows. Likely, very low new lows. JMO.


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BigRedRage

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Nasdaq up big today after Powell. Post fed and GDP print tomorrow should make for a potentially more interesting day than today.. Most fed meetings are the initial jump reaction followed by the next day to digest. I'll have the clowns of CNBC on all day to watch the spin.
I was just coming to post if today was buy the rumor and tomorrow is sell the news
 

dscher

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I was just coming to post if today was buy the rumor and tomorrow is sell the news
Funny thing is, it was a hawkish tone overall IMO and the market still jumped. So even the news sucked. Lol. Odd, but not unexpected. The rest of this week could decide what happens for weeks to come moving forward.
 
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Devilmaycare

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Funny thing is, it was a hawkish tone overall IMO and the market still jumped. So even the rumor sucked. Lol. Odd, but not unexpected. The rest of this week could decide what happens for weeks to come moving forward.
It'll be interesting to see AAPL earnings tomorrow and what their guidance is. That could set the market off in either direction too.
 

dscher

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It'll be interesting to see AAPL earnings tomorrow and what their guidance is. That could set the market off in either direction too.
Yep. We have fireworks the rest of the week IMO. Everyone always preps for fed day, but strangely, it's always the days that follow that things get pretty interesting.
 
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TDOC down 23% after hours. Cathie Wood has a 5% exposure to it. Ouch!

It's advisable to stay away from any of her top holdings.

The more I see, the more I'm convinced this bear market ends with a total crypto meltdown and Tesla collapse.
 

dscher

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TDOC down 23% after hours. Cathie Wood has a 5% exposure to it. Ouch!

It's advisable to stay away from any of her top holdings.

The more I see, the more I'm convinced this bear market ends with a total crypto meltdown and Tesla collapse.
It has to. IMO.

The amount of EXCESS is something we've never seen in markets. Whether thats from the fed or retail, or both....matters not. Excess creates bubbles. Bubbles pop. Simple physics.
 

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TDOC down 23% after hours. Cathie Wood has a 5% exposure to it. Ouch!

It's advisable to stay away from any of her top holdings.

The more I see, the more I'm convinced this bear market ends with a total crypto meltdown and Tesla collapse.
Crypto I agree with. You think TSLA is going to crash too though? I'm still holding 25 shares of it right now in my play account. I've been trying to decide on holding a bit longer or cashing out after this last run.
 

elindholm

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TDOC down 23% after hours. Cathie Wood has a 5% exposure to it. Ouch!

Wow! TDOC used to be a Morningstar favorite, until they finally admitted that they didn't have a clue what its value was and dropped coverage of it. I was tempted several times to take the plunge, but stayed away. But I knew it was high on Wood's list, in more than one of her funds (if I recall correctly). And some other healthcare/tech ETF I looked at just a few days ago was big in TDOC also.


It's advisable to stay away from any of her top holdings.

Sure looks that way.

The more I see, the more I'm convinced this bear market ends with a total crypto meltdown and Tesla collapse.

I'm not willing to bet on a total crypto meltdown, although if Bitcoin finishes the week strong, I may take a stab at BITI. As for TSLA, Musk is such a wildcard that it's impossible to predict anything with confidence. One way or another, it's a leader in its space, and demand for electric cars isn't going away. My guess is that TSLA has a hard floor around 400.
 
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Wow! TDOC used to be a Morningstar favorite, until they finally admitted that they didn't have a clue what its value was and dropped coverage of it. I was tempted several times to take the plunge, but stayed away. But I knew it was high on Wood's list, in more than one of her funds (if I recall correctly). And some other healthcare/tech ETF I looked at just a few days ago was big in TDOC also.

It's funny to see supposed analysts downgrading companies after the stocks are already down 20%+. Too much career risk for these industry analysts for me to put much faith in their price targets. They all had higher price targets on all of these high fliers at the peak and now they downgrade them.
 
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Crypto I agree with. You think TSLA is going to crash too though? I'm still holding 25 shares of it right now in my play account. I've been trying to decide on holding a bit longer or cashing out after this last run.
TSLA will eventually hit a wall or at least slow considerably and valuation will have to come back to reality. Recessions aren't great for auto manufacturers. I would never bet against a hype machine like TSLA though. I'm willing to miss out on any gains TSLA may offer investors outside of my exposure to them in my ETFs.
 

elindholm

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It's funny to see supposed analysts downgrading companies after the stocks are already down 20%+. Too much career risk for these industry analysts for me to put much faith in their price targets. They all had higher price targets on all of these high fliers at the peak and now they downgrade them.
True in general, but Morningstar (which is the one I pay most attention to) has been saying all along that some of the trendy stocks were way overpriced, TSLA among them (until recently).
 

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TSLA will eventually hit a wall or at least slow considerably and valuation will have to come back to reality. Recessions aren't great for auto manufacturers. I would never bet against a hype machine like TSLA though. I'm willing to miss out on any gains TSLA may offer investors outside of my exposure to them in my ETFs.
It's the TSLA fanbois and Elon hype that gives me pause on dumping it. Everything I have I bought in summer of 2020. So I've done well with it. I've slowly trimmed my position since at one point it was 35% of of my play account due to the way it shot up in fall of 2020 after their last split. I've never been super comfortable though with them because I don't trust it not to be very volatile. I'm not surprised by $100 swing either way on it in a day.

The other thing that has me curious on it is the upcoming split. The last one worked out well since it let retail in cheaper. I'm not sure though if that was the fanboi affect, stimulus driven, or a combo of them. If we get a good run here it might be smart to sell off and then buy back in before the split if it looks like it might be fanboi affect.
 
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It's the TSLA fanbois and Elon hype that gives me pause on dumping it. Everything I have I bought in summer of 2020. So I've done well with it. I've slowly trimmed my position since at one point it was 35% of of my play account due to the way it shot up in fall of 2020 after their last split. I've never been super comfortable though with them because I don't trust it not to be very volatile. I'm not surprised by $100 swing either way on it in a day.

The other thing that has me curious on it is the upcoming split. The last one worked out well since it let retail in cheaper. I'm not sure though if that was the fanboi affect, stimulus driven, or a combo of them. If we get a good run here it might be smart to sell off and then buy back in before the split if it looks like it might be fanboi affect.

I think the dramatic split effect we saw was just a function of the speculative bubble. Making options contracts more affordable without a doubt allowed more retail investors to jump in. But the days of making easy money buying calls is over. We've seen heavy hitters like AMZN and GOOG split recently with seemingly very little benefit as it should be.
 
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