The Market 2022

dscher

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Might have some limit downs in our near future. Volatility getting above my 35 level might trigger the massive unwind I've been speculating on.
 

dscher

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Recaptured my sloppy head and shoulders pattern posted a few weeks ago on the Dow...

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Sloppy head and shoulders pattern played out. Crazy.

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@elindholm, Kellogg announced it will be splitting into 3 separate companies separated into cereal, snack, and health/vegetarian brands. I guess they wanted to separate their slow growing cereal business from other faster growing segments. There's speculation the smaller entities will be acquisition targets by other competitors.
 

elindholm

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@elindholm, Kellogg announced it will be splitting into 3 separate companies separated into cereal, snack, and health/vegetarian brands. I guess they wanted to separate their slow growing cereal business from other faster growing segments. There's speculation the smaller entities will be acquisition targets by other competitors.

Hmm, thanks, I hadn't heard that yet. That might be my cue to get out. I'm okay with uncertainty, but that's not why I hold consumer staples. Not sure where to move next, though -- I held both KHC and UL a while ago, and lost patience with both.
 
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I'm barely positive today but underperforming the Nasdaq and S&P 500 enough to make me raise an eyebrow. It looks like energy and materials are down but MO is down a whopping 9% today on news/rumor that FDA will order the sale of Juul e-cigarettes to be ceased in the US. I'm reading that much of the Juul business has been written off already. Rumors that there might be a ban on nicotine in cigarettes down the line as well. Not good for shareholders like myself, but likely good for the health of Americans; although, obesity will likely rise even more without the appetite suppression from addictive cigarettes.

Next up caffeine? That'll bring on the end of the world.
 

BigRedRage

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I do not understand at all the attack on nicotine.

You have things like banning flavors, yet you can buy birthday cake vodka just fine.

Then you have the government trying to regulate the crap out of "tobacco derived nicotine" in vapes and essentially forcing companies to not have flavored vapes.

Now you have vape companies using 4x as expensive "tobacco free nicotine" that is developed in a lab to keep using flavored juices. The tobacco free nicotine, IMO, is trash.

I am currently gobbling up all the tobacco derived nicotine vape juice I can while it still exists and it is few and far between.

Nicotine itself, in moderation, is not really all that dangerous, especially when comparing vs alcohol. I don't really understand this push unless it all falls back onto big tobacco is lining their pockets trying to get rid of vapes to push actual cigarettes more effectively.
 

BigRedRage

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I do see now they are trying to regulate the level of nicotine in tobacco cigarettes, which, I dont fully understand how it is possible to lower the level of nicotine in a plant.

Cigarettes absolutely have massive amounts of dangers on them as many people are smoking 20+ cigarettes a day, inhaling massive amounts of smoke.

I quit smoking something like 6 years ago and switched to vaping super low level nicotine juice. The health benefits I have gained from the switch are outstanding.

While nicotine is addictive, absolutely, vaping seems so much healthier by eliminating all the smoke and carcinogens and I am super disappointed that vaping is in the FDA crosshairs while people still drink and drive every night. It is just as silly as prohibiting marijuana in my opinion.
 
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I do see now they are trying to regulate the level of nicotine in tobacco cigarettes, which, I dont fully understand how it is possible to lower the level of nicotine in a plant.

Cigarettes absolutely have massive amounts of dangers on them as many people are smoking 20+ cigarettes a day, inhaling massive amounts of smoke.

I quit smoking something like 6 years ago and switched to vaping super low level nicotine juice. The health benefits I have gained from the switch are outstanding.

While nicotine is addictive, absolutely, vaping seems so much healthier by eliminating all the smoke and carcinogens and I am super disappointed that vaping is in the FDA crosshairs while people still drink and drive every night. It is just as silly as prohibiting marijuana in my opinion.

I have a good buddy with a similar story. He quit smoking by vaping and reduced his nicotine down to the lowest level. Although he seemed to suggest there was still a decent jump between the lowest level and zero. He has yet to be able to get to zero and quit vaping despite him having that as a goal at one point.

While we don't have decades of data, I have to think vaping is less dangerous than smoking, but any chemicals/vapor you are continuously forcing into your lungs are likely to have long term negative effects in my opinion.

Just the elimination of the smell of smoke with vaping has been massive. I remember going to bars in the early 2000's or pool halls in high school. Your clothes and hair would reek after.
 

BigRedRage

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I have a good buddy with a similar story. He quit smoking by vaping and reduced his nicotine down to the lowest level. Although he seemed to suggest there was still a decent jump between the lowest level and zero. He has yet to be able to get to zero and quit vaping despite him having that as a goal at one point.

While we don't have decades of data, I have to think vaping is less dangerous than smoking, but any chemicals/vapor you are continuously forcing into your lungs are likely to have long term negative effects in my opinion.

Just the elimination of the smell of smoke with vaping has been massive. I remember going to bars in the early 2000's or pool halls in high school. Your clothes and hair would reek after.
There can still be potential of harm from inhaling vapor and nicotine, sure.

But, that's my decision to make, IMO.

I have never actually had a goal of actually quitting, personally.

I vape 3mg nicotine, which is the first jump up from 0. I would not call it a sizeable jump at all. Most people are vaping what is essentially 12-15mg nicotine (it gets complicated if we start talking salts) and all the Juuls are super high nicotine.

Those high levels are important when trying to quit actual cigarettes, but, I hate them. its way too high.

The fact that no one cares if I knock back a handle of vodka daily but they do care how much nicotine I intake is rather infuriating.

My personal addiction is more of smoking than the nicotine itself but I enjoy the combo. Even if I use a patch, I'll still want to smoke the whole time.
 
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There can still be potential of harm from inhaling vapor and nicotine, sure.

But, that's my decision to make, IMO.

I have never actually had a goal of actually quitting, personally.

I vape 3mg nicotine, which is the first jump up from 0. I would not call it a sizeable jump at all. Most people are vaping what is essentially 12-15mg nicotine (it gets complicated if we start talking salts) and all the Juuls are super high nicotine.

Those high levels are important when trying to quit actual cigarettes, but, I hate them. its way too high.

The fact that no one cares if I knock back a handle of vodka daily but they do care how much nicotine I intake is rather infuriating.

My personal addiction is more of smoking than the nicotine itself but I enjoy the combo. Even if I use a patch, I'll still want to smoke the whole time.

I'm for personal freedoms for adults, but there is definitely and ethical issue in play with the introduction of a chemically addictive ingredient coupled with a hazardous product. But the larger problem that has vaping in the crosshairs of regulators is the popularity of vaping amongst teenagers. The same could be said with alcohol, but prohibition for alcohol has already been tried.
 

BigRedRage

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I'm for personal freedoms for adults, but there is definitely and ethical issue in play with the introduction of a chemically addictive ingredient coupled with a hazardous product. But the larger problem that has vaping in the crosshairs of regulators is the popularity of vaping amongst teenagers. The same could be said with alcohol, but prohibition for alcohol has already been tried.
Yea, I hate the "teenagers are doing it" argument. That's always been going on. I started smoking cigarettes in 8th grade.
 

Dr. Jones

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I have a good buddy with a similar story. He quit smoking by vaping and reduced his nicotine down to the lowest level. Although he seemed to suggest there was still a decent jump between the lowest level and zero. He has yet to be able to get to zero and quit vaping despite him having that as a goal at one point.

While we don't have decades of data, I have to think vaping is less dangerous than smoking, but any chemicals/vapor you are continuously forcing into your lungs are likely to have long term negative effects in my opinion.

Just the elimination of the smell of smoke with vaping has been massive. I remember going to bars in the early 2000's or pool halls in high school. Your clothes and hair would reek after.
I have a friend that has done it all. Hard stuff, Cigarettes, Vaping, and dip.

He said the hardest by far was quitting the Vape. Coke, acid, weed, etc....... Vaping still gives him the worst trauma. No idea how strong the stuff was that he was on.
 

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