The Market 2022

Yuma

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Can I ask why you believe you are stuck?
I bought SP 500 index in my 401K. I consolidated funds into one 401K and that was mostly when the market was super low. So I want to wait for those stocks to return to normal levels before making moves. I should have some upside.
 

dscher

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I bought SP 500 index in my 401K. I consolidated funds into one 401K and that was mostly when the market was super low. So I want to wait for those stocks to return to normal levels before making moves. I should have some upside.
Gotcha. Good luck. :thumbup:
 

Devilmaycare

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He's saying what I've been thinking. We have another leg down to go. I'm still mostly on the sidelines waiting for it. VIX < 19 has been a sign to sell the last few years and it was at that on Thursday. I still think that there's a good chance that SPX gets down to the 3-3.1k range.
 

dscher

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He's saying what I've been thinking. We have another leg down to go. I'm still mostly on the sidelines waiting for it. VIX < 19 has been a sign to sell the last few years and it was at that on Thursday. I still think that there's a good chance that SPX gets down to the 3-3.1k range.
Agree. That level would at least generate a capitulatory like move in the VIX. Where we go from there, who knows? There will be a secular bear market at that point that will have plenty of resistance to the upside IMHO.
 

dscher

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For anyone interested in some different insight that you won't hear on CNBC.. ;)

 

Yuma

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For anyone interested in some different insight that you won't hear on CNBC.. ;)

It's funny. During the Trump Presidency, not a week went by where I read about signals that always predicted a market crash occurring, yet no market crash ever occurred. I know China is the dog that wags the tail. Their economy goes to **** so does ours. I have just become immune to all these market signals not working.
 

Zalixar

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It's funny. During the Trump Presidency, not a week went by where I read about signals that always predicted a market crash occurring, yet no market crash ever occurred. I know China is the dog that wags the tail. Their economy goes to **** so does ours. I have just become immune to all these market signals not working.
Banks were given trillions of dollars to kick the can
 

Devilmaycare

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It's funny. During the Trump Presidency, not a week went by where I read about signals that always predicted a market crash occurring, yet no market crash ever occurred. I know China is the dog that wags the tail. Their economy goes to **** so does ours. I have just become immune to all these market signals not working.
Since 2008 the markets have been artificially propped up by QE and the Fed Rate. Washington and the Fed kept it going on way to long and didn't let the economy go through it's natural cycles for the last 14 years. Now that QT is starting and they've been forced to raise rates the correction that should have been happening are now starting.

We saw the first of it last year with the tech bubble bursting a bit. That correction caused the SPX drop from 4600 to 3900. Now it almost time for the housing and auto market corrections which I think will be the catalyst for the next leg down.

So this time is a little different than those market signals that made you immune. Businesses not having access to essentially free money like they have for the last decade makes for a huge difference with them.
 

Yuma

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I also wonder about all the money by Boomers in the market for retirement, coupled with millennials (who are a bigger group than Boomers) like my son who are putting money into 401Ks and adding more money into the stock market. There's a LOT of retirement money in and entering the market.
 

elindholm

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It's funny. During the Trump Presidency, not a week went by where I read about signals that always predicted a market crash occurring, yet no market crash ever occurred. I know China is the dog that wags the tail. Their economy goes to **** so does ours. I have just become immune to all these market signals not working.

It's never possible to guarantee that the market won't go down. So there is a cottage industry of naysayers always predicting the next big crash. They are like the proverbial stopped clock that is right twice a day.

Investing in the stock market is not for the risk-averse. As bad as 2022 was, it was no worse than a once-per-decade swoon. And 2023 or 2024 could be even worse. The naysayers are afraid to take on the risk, so they just wring their hands as an excuse to stay out, then hope to get validated by anyone who will listen to them.

I always ask these guys, if you're so confident that the market will tank, why aren't you cleaning up by shorting it? And they never answer.
 

Yuma

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It's never possible to guarantee that the market won't go down. So there is a cottage industry of naysayers always predicting the next big crash. They are like the proverbial stopped clock that is right twice a day.

Investing in the stock market is not for the risk-averse. As bad as 2022 was, it was no worse than a once-per-decade swoon. And 2023 or 2024 could be even worse. The naysayers are afraid to take on the risk, so they just wring their hands as an excuse to stay out, then hope to get validated by anyone who will listen to them.

I always ask these guys, if you're so confident that the market will tank, why aren't you cleaning up by shorting it? And they never answer.
Exactly! I have to learn to short stocks.
 

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