The Market 2022

dscher

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Still have fervent buy the dippers in the TSLA and BTC. I think we hit bottom when even those bulls have given up.
My brother is going to silly hodl BTC with big money till it bottoms out. Told him today while doing some analysis that I found a level I hadn't seen previously of 6k to be an extreme but potential level if ish really hits the fan like my volatility measures show could be on the docket. He brushed it off and said he saw a tech guy online point to 12k. Once again, told him even that's 60 percent off current levels with a 150 percent break even. No response. Lol. Some people man...even worse, family. Lol. I'm going to have to witness a ton of pain with family members and their portfolios. But, I've given my two cents many, many times... It's their path they have to travel now. I've already prepared myself for their phone calls. Ugh.
 

Finito

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My brother is going to silly hodl BTC with big money till it bottoms out. Told him today while doing some analysis that I found a level I hadn't seen previously of 6k to be an extreme but potential level if ish really hits the fan like my volatility measures show could be on the docket. He brushed it off and said he saw a tech guy online point to 12k. Once again, told him even that's 60 percent off current levels with a 150 percent break even. No response. Lol. Some people man...even worse, family. Lol. I'm going to have to witness a ton of pain with family members and their portfolios. But, I've given my two cents many, many times... It's their path they have to travel now. I've already prepared myself for their phone calls. Ugh.

I don’t see anything wrong with holding for the long term. It’s been proven time and time again the people who have the most success are the ones who just buy and leave it.

Goes up goes down but overtime it goes up.
 

Devilmaycare

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I don’t see anything wrong with holding for the long term. It’s been proven time and time again the people who have the most success are the ones who just buy and leave it.

Goes up goes down but overtime it goes up.
For stocks that's true but I don't know if it'll hold true for BTC. And really with stocks that's only true when looking at index funds. Individual stocks can crater and die over time. BTC is more like a individual stock but IMO has more of a chance of not recovering. There's nothing backing the price. It's been purely speculation driving it.

I've been pondering this morning if shorting MSTR might be a good play due to it. If BTC drops enough to trigger their margin calls then we might see a cascade effect between them and the price of BTC. With the price they're at I could probably only buy one contract through and I'm still not big on spending too much on calls and puts. I'll do a hundred or two here and there but they still feel like gambling to me.
 

Finito

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For stocks that's true but I don't know if it'll hold true for BTC. And really with stocks that's only true when looking at index funds. Individual stocks can crater and die over time. BTC is more like a individual stock but IMO has more of a chance of not recovering. There's nothing backing the price. It's been purely speculation driving it.

I've been pondering this morning if shorting MSTR might be a good play due to it. If BTC drops enough to trigger their margin calls then we might see a cascade effect between them and the price of BTC. With the price they're at I could probably only buy one contract through and I'm still not big on spending too much on calls and puts. I'll do a hundred or two here and there but they still feel like gambling to me.

I think Bitcoin is one giant gamble. I don’t think anyone really knows what it’s future is.
 

elindholm

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I think Bitcoin is one giant gamble. I don’t think anyone really knows what it’s future is.
The problem is that it will never be tied to anything of real value, the perception of its value is entirely circular, like a perpetual-motion machine. That simply isn't a model for long-term durability.

No matter how speculative a stock is, its value is propped up by the belief that the company will eventually be worth something. It's not just a shiny piece of paper. Crypto can never be anything but a shiny piece of paper. Lose faith in the paper, and there's no backstop.

The best-case scenario for bitcoin is that it becomes widely established and settles at a fairly stable price point, the way a precious metal does. Then I could see people owning bitcoin the way they do gold, as a stabilizing influence among all of their assets and the proverbial "hedge against inflation." Even then, though, the focus will be on how the price relates back to the dollar. People don't buy cars or houses or art with gold -- they sell the gold and buy the stuff with dollars, because ultimately dollars are what people want.
 

dscher

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The problem is that it will never be tied to anything of real value, the perception of its value is entirely circular, like a perpetual-motion machine. That simply isn't a model for long-term durability.

No matter how speculative a stock is, its value is propped up by the belief that the company will eventually be worth something. It's not just a shiny piece of paper. Crypto can never be anything but a shiny piece of paper. Lose faith in the paper, and there's no backstop.

The best-case scenario for bitcoin is that it becomes widely established and settles at a fairly stable price point, the way a precious metal does. Then I could see people owning bitcoin the way they do gold, as a stabilizing influence among all of their assets and the proverbial "hedge against inflation." Even then, though, the focus will be on how the price relates back to the dollar. People don't buy cars or houses or art with gold -- they sell the gold and buy the stuff with dollars, because ultimately dollars are what people want.
Tulips would have been worth trillions by now!


 

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