The Market 2022

BigRedRage

Reckless
Supporting Member
Joined
Mar 25, 2005
Posts
47,583
Reaction score
11,844
Location
SE valley
LCID delivery estimates went from something like 20k this year to 10k and now less than 10k. They are struggling mightily in production.

this is to be expected, but it matters.
 
OP
OP
Folster

Folster

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jun 23, 2005
Posts
14,795
Reaction score
4,620
Cathie Wood sold COIN on 7/26. It's up 81% since. Jesus, she is just burning money. Apparently there's been an announced partnership with BlackRock or something.

You must be registered for see images attach
 

elindholm

edited for content
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
25,228
Reaction score
5,225
Location
L.A. area
Cathie Wood sold COIN on 7/26. It's up 81% since. Jesus, she is just burning money. Apparently there's been an announced partnership with BlackRock or something.

You must be registered for see images attach

She sold it? That's hilarious. Here I was being impressed that she'd made a good call and might be getting back on track.

I have to believe there's a massive group of investors going against everything she does just to spite her.
 
OP
OP
Folster

Folster

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jun 23, 2005
Posts
14,795
Reaction score
4,620
She sold it? That's hilarious. Here I was being impressed that she'd made a good call and might be getting back on track.

I have to believe there's a massive group of investors going against everything she does just to spite her.

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

Apparently she still has 5 million shares and has a 3% position now. But selling 1.4 million shares literally right before it pops has got to hurt.
 
Last edited:

Yuma

Working from home. Missing my free coffee!
Joined
Jan 3, 2003
Posts
13,549
Reaction score
2,546
Location
Laveen, AZ
xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

Apparently she still has 5 million shares and has a 3% position now. But selling 1.4 million shares literally right before it pops has got to hurt.
Did it pop because she sold. Someone in here was teasing they were going to do the opposite of her to make money. I wonder if others thought that, too?
 

dscher

ASFN Icon
Banned from P+R
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
10,017
Reaction score
5,001
Location
Mesa, AZ
BTW @Folster, we still got my Dow trend line in play... we'll see if my freaky deaky patterns work out here. ;)
 

dscher

ASFN Icon
Banned from P+R
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
10,017
Reaction score
5,001
Location
Mesa, AZ
xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media


The idea of government controlling inflation:

You must be registered for see images attach
 

elindholm

edited for content
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
25,228
Reaction score
5,225
Location
L.A. area
Folster, did you sort out everything that's supposed to happen with MMM at the end of the month? We get an opportunity to buy (or exchange into?) shares of some other thing at a discount, but then, if not all of the new holding sells, MMM owners who sat tight will get their slice of what's left over. I read it only once, didn't understand it, and planned to come back to it, but now I can't find it.
 

dscher

ASFN Icon
Banned from P+R
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
10,017
Reaction score
5,001
Location
Mesa, AZ
Watch for some volatility pops coming soon.. IMO. The play out in the options world seems a bit skewed at the moment. Not a lot of hedging going on.
 
OP
OP
Folster

Folster

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jun 23, 2005
Posts
14,795
Reaction score
4,620
Folster, did you sort out everything that's supposed to happen with MMM at the end of the month? We get an opportunity to buy (or exchange into?) shares of some other thing at a discount, but then, if not all of the new holding sells, MMM owners who sat tight will get their slice of what's left over. I read it only once, didn't understand it, and planned to come back to it, but now I can't find it.

Is this the Spinco and Neogen spin-off/merger? I didn't see a corporate action for it. I'll have to take a closer look, but I don't plan to exchange shares of MMM for the spin-off that is being acquired by Neogen.
 

elindholm

edited for content
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
25,228
Reaction score
5,225
Location
L.A. area
Is this the Spinco and Neogen spin-off/merger? I didn't see a corporate action for it. I'll have to take a closer look, but I don't plan to exchange shares of MMM for the spin-off that is being acquired by Neogen.
Yeah, here it is, for (my) future reference:


So, if I understand correctly:

* On the final days of August, MMM shareholders will have the option of exchanging their MMM for SpinCo, which is destined to become (get absorbed by) Neogen. MMM shareholders will get a 7% discount on any SpinCo/Neogen shares they acquire through this transaction, the discount being figured with respect to Neogen's market-weighted average price over the three trading days 25, 26, and 29 August.

* 108.3M shares of SpinCo/Neogen will be available, which works out to $2.33B worth. Since MMM's market cap is $83.6B, only a small percentage of MMM shares can be exchanged. In the event that the exchange order is oversubscribed, everyone's allowable exchange will be prorated.

* If the exchange is undersubscribed, the remaining shares of SpinCo/Neogen will be distributed pro rata to all MMM shareholders. If no one accepts the exchange offer, leaving all of the SpinCo/Neogen up for grabs, then each $100 of MMM will be entitled to $2.79 of SpinCo/Neogen.

Neogen is down 52.8% YTD, so if you think it can bounce back, this could be a useful opportunity to get in at an even steeper discount than the market price. If you could freeze the prices, you'd hop over quickly to NEOG, cash out at face value, and then move back into MMM. But I'm probably not the only one who has thought of that, so I expect the prices of NEOG (and maybe also MMM) to go haywire right around the time of the merger.
 
OP
OP
Folster

Folster

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jun 23, 2005
Posts
14,795
Reaction score
4,620
Yeah, here it is, for (my) future reference:


So, if I understand correctly:

* On the final days of August, MMM shareholders will have the option of exchanging their MMM for SpinCo, which is destined to become (get absorbed by) Neogen. MMM shareholders will get a 7% discount on any SpinCo/Neogen shares they acquire through this transaction, the discount being figured with respect to Neogen's market-weighted average price over the three trading days 25, 26, and 29 August.

* 108.3M shares of SpinCo/Neogen will be available, which works out to $2.33B worth. Since MMM's market cap is $83.6B, only a small percentage of MMM shares can be exchanged. In the event that the exchange order is oversubscribed, everyone's allowable exchange will be prorated.

* If the exchange is undersubscribed, the remaining shares of SpinCo/Neogen will be distributed pro rata to all MMM shareholders. If no one accepts the exchange offer, leaving all of the SpinCo/Neogen up for grabs, then each $100 of MMM will be entitled to $2.79 of SpinCo/Neogen.

Neogen is down 52.8% YTD, so if you think it can bounce back, this could be a useful opportunity to get in at an even steeper discount than the market price. If you could freeze the prices, you'd hop over quickly to NEOG, cash out at face value, and then move back into MMM. But I'm probably not the only one who has thought of that, so I expect the prices of NEOG (and maybe also MMM) to go haywire right around the time of the merger.

The market seems to be reacting pretty positively with MMM's announced spin off of their health care division and other restructuring. AA They have doubled up the S&P 500 performance over the last month which is welcomed outperformance in my portfolio.

NEOG appears to be a solid company with revenue increasing at 6.22% a year over the last 5 years. However, net profit margins have been decreasing steadily over the past 5 years from 15.67% down to 9.11% in 2022. Free cash flow as a percentage of revenue has been consistently pegged at 11-12% over the past 5 years except for 2022 they are down to 8.35%. The balance sheet is looking really strong as they have no long term debt and great liquidity ratios.

The problem I have with projections is I have no idea how this Spinco merger/acquisition will affect top line revenue going forward for NEOG which is what I use for the my cash flow projections. If I used the analyst projections in Yahoo I'm getting a target price of $10.50 to $13.00 with my required return of 10% which is quite the range and well below the current price of $21.51.

I'm going to sit this one out. I'm not confident I could execute the arbitrage on the discount on my trading platform even if I wanted to. Despite getting in a little early to MMM, it has been holding up well for me and is now performing like I expected when I initially purchased it.
 

Devilmaycare

Moderator
Moderator
Joined
Jan 5, 2019
Posts
2,544
Reaction score
2,671
Location
Scottsdale
Saw that. They felt the need to come out weeks ahead of earnings to brace investors for a miss. That's not good.
It's crazy too considering their products have been the best scaling items for the last couple years. The market was bonkers for awhile. It's most likely tied to the crypto crash and China cracking down on the mining operations there.
 
OP
OP
Folster

Folster

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jun 23, 2005
Posts
14,795
Reaction score
4,620
It's crazy too considering their products have been the best scaling items for the last couple years. The market was bonkers for awhile. It's most likely tied to the crypto crash and China cracking down on the mining operations there.

Likely a lot of pull forward of demand during the pandemic for gaming too.
 

BigRedRage

Reckless
Supporting Member
Joined
Mar 25, 2005
Posts
47,583
Reaction score
11,844
Location
SE valley
It's crazy too considering their products have been the best scaling items for the last couple years. The market was bonkers for awhile. It's most likely tied to the crypto crash and China cracking down on the mining operations there.
I saw them also blame a slow gaming quarter. Their CEO is legit and their grip on the industries speaks for itself so I'm still confident regardless
 

elindholm

edited for content
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
25,228
Reaction score
5,225
Location
L.A. area
Likely a lot of pull forward of demand during the pandemic for gaming too.
Yeah, I fell for that with the HERO video gaming ETF, which I'm now trying to move on from. I have that (approximate) space adequately covered with U, EMQQ, and EWY.
 

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
478,163
Posts
4,783,358
Members
6,158
Latest member
SECTION 12
Top