The Market 2022

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10 year treasury yields are up 15 basis points since the start of the year. 3 to 4 rate hikes are projected for 2020. If you recall, the market threw a fit in Q4 when the 10 year hit 3% and the NASDAQ had a big sell off. Trump also whined and the Fed ultimately capitulated to him and the market.

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10 year treasury yields are up 15 basis points since the start of the year. 3 to 4 rate hikes are projected for 2020. If you recall, the market threw a fit in Q4 when the 10 year hit 3% and the NASDAQ had a big sell off. Trump also whined and the Fed ultimately capitulated to him and the market.

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We're in a weird spot with yields and the curve right now. The fed can control the short end but not the long end. If the economic conditions that we've seen persist, the bond market will scream lower rates because the weakness in the overall consumer IMO. Then any increase by the fed will cause another potential inversion of the curve which will spook investors once again. Damn if they do or don't. We all know they walk that tight rope of not upsetting the markets. I just think they are getting shoved into a corner with no way out. Time will tell.
 
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We're in a weird spot with yields and the curve right now. The fed can control the short end but not the long end. If the economic conditions that we've seen persist, the bond market will scream lower rates because the weakness in the overall consumer IMO. Then any increase by the fed will cause another potential inversion of the curve which will spook investors once again. Damn if they do or don't. We all know they walk that tight rope of not upsetting the markets. I just think they are getting shoved into a corner with no way out. Time will tell.

I really think the fed is intent on stopping QE and getting to at least 1% for the fed funds rate so they have a tiny bit of ammo for a slow economy/recession in the next couple years.

Imagine hitting an economic downturn with rates at zero and the fed already pumping the economy with $120B every month? Negative rates?
 

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I really think the fed is intent on stopping QE and getting to at least 1% for the fed funds rate so they have a tiny bit of ammo for a slow economy/recession in the next couple years.

Imagine hitting an economic downturn with rates at zero and the fed already pumping the economy with $120B every month? Negative rates?
One word. Japanification.
 
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Pretty sizeable sell-off today led by the NASDAQ.
 
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10 year jumped a whopping 10 basis points from Friday. 1.78 to 1.875.
 

dscher

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10 year jumped a whopping 10 basis points from Friday. 1.78 to 1.875.
Yep. I'm holding pure TLT in my retirement account. I still think yields are heading much lower... eventually. But the ride is going to be 'hold onto your seat' crazy. IMO.
 
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Yep. I'm holding pure TLT in my retirement account. I still think yields are heading much lower... eventually. But the ride is going to be 'hold onto your seat' crazy. IMO.
I'm holding a very small position in TTT. Up 4.5% today.
 
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This is not meant to be political or directed at a particular party as both are responsible; it's more of a commentary on how some of the media narratives have changed surrounding inflation. Obviously the headlines were cherry-picked to portray the narrative in the worst light, but I thought it was funny regardless.

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