The Market 2022-2023-2024

[dscher]

He's just the only one stupid enough to say it, but I think most share the same opinion.

Yuuup

 

[Folster]

BofA calling for oil to hit $117 in June! I'll be hanging on to XOM.

 

[dscher]

BofA calling for oil to hit $117 in June! I'll be hanging on to XOM.

Energy sector is going bonkers on a parabolic move.. if we see another massive thrust in wtic it could actually have a negative effect on stocks because of current economic conditions. You can't have gas hit 5 bucks a gallon again with the consumer sentiment where it currently stands. IMO.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Ouch, so glad I don't own $FB right now...

 

[dscher]

Ouch, so glad I don't own $FB right now...

Trillion dollar company taking a quarter value hit right now... Time to be alert and ready for anything in this market.

 

[Folster]

Trillion dollar company taking a quarter value hit right now... Time to be alert and ready for anything in this market.

Yeah, tomorrow may be a wild ride. People are expecting a drop for AMZN too. That may hurt.

 

[dscher]

Yeah, tomorrow may be a wild ride. People are expecting a drop for AMZN too. That may hurt.

Another AMZN drop will not be helpful at all...

 

[Devilmaycare]

Yeah, tomorrow may be a wild ride. People are expecting a drop for AMZN too. That may hurt.

Could be a buying opportunity too. I started the roll over on my 401k today. Just got the text that the request is complete and I'll have it in 3-7 days. I'm almost tempted to park it in the account's settlement money market fund and see if things crater soon. It would suck for everyone else but a March 2020 drop would sure be nice to buy into again.

 

[Folster]

I just did a DCF on FB with its new 2021 numbers. It looks really appealing if it does drop to the $250 range even when I nerfed their future growth rate and estimates. I halved the estimated 5 year annual growth rate and reduced the 2022 revenue estimate and I am still getting $276. If I nerf cash flow as a percentage of revenue as well, I'm getting sub $220.

 

[BigRedRage]

Could be a buying opportunity too. I started the roll over on my 401k today. Just got the text that the request is complete and I'll have it in 3-7 days. I'm almost tempted to park it in the account's settlement money market fund and see if things crater soon. It would suck for everyone else but a March 2020 drop would sure be nice to buy into again.

I've found quite a few value plays that are near covid level drops already but I am not ready to buy back in yet. Waiting on the sale of a home.

 

[dscher]

I just did a DCF on FB with its new 2021 numbers. It looks really appealing if it does drop to the $250 range even when I nerfed their future growth rate and estimates. I halved the estimated 5 year annual growth rate and reduced the 2022 revenue estimate and I am still getting $276. If I nerf cash flow as a percentage of revenue as well, I'm getting sub $220.

So how do you go about your DCF analysis with stock picking and holding? Since that's a good ole Warren Buffett tried and true method, do you sit on the companies for years after buying? Just curious your approach.

 

[Folster]

So how do you go about your DCF analysis with stock picking and holding? Since that's a good ole Warren Buffett tried and true method, do you sit on the companies for years after buying? Just curious your approach.

It depends. The company could be above my established fair value with a required rate of return of 10% and I will still hold if there are no other opportunities I like better or if I solve for rate of return and I am still projecting a decent rate of return at the higher price depending on the company and industry. There are a few companies I view as permaholds, they typically have a deep moat and I may trim from those if they become too outsized. I also ascribe to Peter Lynch's method of investing in what I know and use. I'll dabble in the unknown from time to time if it's a good value, but I am more likely to buy and hold companies like Google, Lowes, Amazon, and Costco. I'm hopeful to get back in Costco and I really want to get Pepsi one day if their price will ever fall.

 

[dscher]

Fear & Greed Index - Investor Sentiment - CNNMoney

Fear & Greed is CNNMoney's investor sentiment tool that comprises of 7 markets indicators.

money.cnn.com

Still at a 34!

 

[Folster]

I hate myself for it, but I picked up 4 shares of FB at $237.19. Let's see where this goes.

 

[dscher]

I hate myself for it, but I picked up 4 shares of FB at $237.19. Let's see where this goes.

You must be registered for see images attach

Lol. Kidding. Good luck man. You like to live life dangerously I see...

 

[Devilmaycare]

I hate myself for it, but I picked up 4 shares of FB at $237.19. Let's see where this goes.

I can't bring myself to do it. I hate them more than I like money. I did joke with a buddy though last night that I was going to put all of my rollover into $FB.

On other tanking companies, what happened to $SQ??? They're down to $101 now from being just over $280 in August. I really haven't been following them to see what triggered such a huge drop.

 

[BigRedRage]

I dont trust FB but I wish you the best with it. The good news is, they own insta. FB will die. Kids are not really on FB anymore except for necessities.

 

[Folster]

I dont trust FB but I wish you the best with it. The good news is, they own insta. FB will die. Kids are not really on FB anymore except for necessities.

What's App is big internationally too.

 

[dscher]

Feels and looks like we are gonna get the rug pulled from under the market here again soon...

 

[Folster]

I dont trust FB but I wish you the best with it. The good news is, they own insta. FB will die. Kids are not really on FB anymore except for necessities.

I still know people who use FB as they have built a big marketplace and have intertwined themselves with business outreach and a lot of hobby/special interest clubs.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Oh boy has Ford been on a tear! I bought way too early but have been rewarded for my patience.

Down 5% now in AH after mixed earnings. Hope it didn't hurt you guys too much.

Facebook effect is in full swing for SNAP. They were down 23.6% during the day and now up 43% in AH after beating estimates. It also makes FB's numbers yesterday look worse since SNAP had the same Apple restrictions that FB tried to blame. It shows the user are leaving for other platforms.

 

[Folster]

AMZN had a big earnings beat with revenue on target. Stock is up over 18% after hours. Phew!!!

 

[Devilmaycare]

AMZN had a big earnings beat with revenue on target. Stock is up over 18% after hours. Phew!!!

Caution with them though. I haven't dug in yet due to work but a buddy posted on our slack: “Q4 net income includes a pre-tax valuation gain of $11.8B included in non-operating income from our common stock investment in Rivian” and that it was using "$100 $RIVN Dec 31 Valuation." It's trading at about $60 now.

He made it sound like they're playing a bit of a shell game with the Rivian assets to make the numbers look better. I don't know if that's an accurate assessment yet or not though. He's usually not too far out of the off. So I'm wondering if the WS guys will see it the same way and we'll get a pull back once they do.

 

[dscher]

Caution with them though. I haven't dug in yet due to work but a buddy posted on our slack: “Q4 net income includes a pre-tax valuation gain of $11.8B included in non-operating income from our common stock investment in Rivian” and that it was using "$100 $RIVN Dec 31 Valuation." It's trading at about $60 now.

He made it sound like they're playing a bit of a shell game with the Rivian assets to make the numbers look better. I don't know if that's an accurate assessment yet or not though. He's usually not too far out of the off. So I'm wondering if the WS guys will see it the same way and we'll get a pull back once they do.

One thing I know, from what I do, is that it's not in a favorable position on the charts regardless of any one day upside move we get here. We have ALOT of intermediate to long term resistance we've built in discretionary stocks like Amazon that will take time to resolve. IMO

 

[elindholm]

AMZN had a big earnings beat with revenue on target. Stock is up over 18% after hours. Phew!!!

Holy crap! I was considering AMZN if it got to 2720 or so, but it looks like that ship has sailed. Oh well.