The Market 2022-2023

Yuma

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Risk management is never a bad idea. ;)
I looked at it like taking a profit. When my S&P 500 Index funds hit 20% return for the year, I figured I would lock in that profit. Don't get greedy. Then I readied myself for a down turn. This could be it.
 

dscher

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They're battened down. I have SPY shorted with Dec. 15th strikes. I'm pretty sure we're going to see a shutdown in DC and that'll cause a market drop.
If that doesn't cause it, there is a plethora of other things that will.. IMO
 

Devilmaycare

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If that doesn't cause it, there is a plethora of other things that will.. IMO
100% I had been thinking of making the play due to student loan payments starting back up. My gut's been saying that that's going to disrupt the economy more than people think. A shutdown feels like a perfect storm is brewing for market drop.
 

dscher

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100% I had been thinking of making the play due to student loan payments starting back up. My gut's been saying that that's going to disrupt the economy more than people think. A shutdown feels like a perfect storm is brewing for market drop.
We're definitely in a black swan environment right now by the feel of things.. my analysis/ technicals align with that sentiment as well. Regardless, wherever we go from here, it's not a bad time to be extremely cautious just based on systemic risks alone.
 

Yuma

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A small group of Republicans playing chicken with the economy.
 

Yuma

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Pandemic spending, and also pandemic protections. This month protections from eviction started during the pandemic went away. NPR said we have the lowest unemployment in PHX area right now, HOWEVER, something like 7,700 eviction notices went out this month. IDK AZ law on this, it will take 30-90 days to see those take effect where people are actually evicted. Plus this is a tight rental market right now in PHX, and what landlord will rent to someone with an eviction on their credit score? Could be some bad juju for us locally. NPR didn't say how many of the notices were for rentals versus homes owned.
 

Yuma

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All eyes on the bond market and the dollar. They are not taking a breather.. that's a very dangerous scenario ATM. IMO
I expect the dollar to tank. The Bond market bothers me a bit, though. Republicans gonna drop our bond rating for something they are not going to get. Just so they can say they tried.
 

dscher

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I expect the dollar to tank. The Bond market bothers me a bit, though. Republicans gonna drop our bond rating for something they are not going to get. Just so they can say they tried.
Republicans. Lol. It's all about Japan and their yield curve control tactics. The BOJ, much like our central bank, is in between a rock and hard place. They are doing everything to keep the yen from collapsing and need to sell US treasuries to do so. It's nasty cycle that won't end well for either economy... along with the global economy. IMO
 

dscher

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These are the type of people in charge of our Treasury..

Nothing to see here.

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Folster

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Folster

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These are the type of people in charge of our Treasury..

Nothing to see here.

If you edit the URL by putting in twitter instead of x, this site will show the tweet preview. Someone in admin or support needs to update that feature to work with the new X url.
 
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Folster

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