Well, that's a lot of assumptions as well. Those economic indicators have actual historical relevance with recessions AND 35 percent drawdowns or more each occurrence. But, to be fair, it could be different this time and we remain in a secular bull market. The reality is we have zero idea what will come tomorrow or in 10 years. My money isn't betting on that bullish scenario though.
It wouldn't be different this time.. it would be the same. There were two recessions in the 80's caused by Paul Volcker skyrocketing interest rates to tame persistent inflation. Conditions then were worse than they are today. Unemployment during these recessions peaked at 10.8 and 7.8 percent, much worse than we are likely to see during this cycle. And the market remained in the secular bull.