The Market 2021

BigRedRage

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The catalyst was them starting to delivery cars. Rawlinson was also in Saudi Arabia to meet with them and present the prince with the first delivered car. There’s was also reports from the Saudi investment minister about Lucid building a manufacturing facility there. Basically the crown confirmed their support of the company.
Yeah they do have that delivery event tomorrow I think.
 

Devilmaycare

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@Devilmaycare long ago after talking to you and doing some research, I bought in to CCIV at like $29. I think today is the first time I am in the positive. I'm not excited yet but it is nice to at least see traction. From what I have seen so far, they are one of the only companies that I see being a big deal in the future. Rivian I am not fully sold on yet. The way Lucid is taking their steps and the plans they have are much bigger picture. I'm really, really not sold on the ICE manufacturers nor the effort they are putting in to lobby against their competition in DC.
What a difference a week makes. Both it and TSLA took off over the last week or so. My self managed accounts are looking great right now due to them.
 

Devilmaycare

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Vroom vroom

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It's going nuts. I sort of hope it slows down though. We're at about were we should be. I don't want to get too much of a bubble to pop. RIVN has a huge bubble going too for where they're at. IMO they should both be at about the cap that LCID has right now unless WS is valuing them differently.
 

BigRedRage

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It's going nuts. I sort of hope it slows down though. We're at about were we should be. I don't want to get too much of a bubble to pop. RIVN has a huge bubble going too for where they're at. IMO they should both be at about the cap that LCID has right now unless WS is valuing them differently.
I skipped rivn IPO as it was too high and it's gone bonkers since. Ppl chasing any new EV company. Lucid at least has some sales.
 

Devilmaycare

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I skipped rivn IPO as it was too high and it's gone bonkers since. Ppl chasing any new EV company. Lucid at least has some sales.
Yeah, RIVN is way over priced IMO. I did manage to get 18 shares of it though at the IPO price so I'm not complaining about the run up right now. :) I wish I had been able to get more. I had requested 100 shares but they only granted me the 18.
 

BigRedRage

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Yeah, RIVN is way over priced IMO. I did manage to get 18 shares of it though at the IPO price so I'm not complaining about the run up right now. :) I wish I had been able to get more. I had requested 100 shares but they only granted me the 18.
Nice! I've been slapped by IPOs before so I intended to wait a week and then buy but of course it's run up a ton now to the point I'm totally uncomfortable with it. Their market cap is crushing lucid right now.

I like their trucks but I don't believe in them like I do lucid right now.
 

Devilmaycare

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Nice! I've been slapped by IPOs before so I intended to wait a week and then buy but of course it's run up a ton now to the point I'm totally uncomfortable with it. Their market cap is crushing lucid right now.

I like their trucks but I don't believe in them like I do lucid right now.

I usually avoid the IPOs too if I have to buy on the open market. Usually they've already had an initial jump in price by the time we can buy. For the RIVN IPO SoFi offered shares priced at IPO to retail customers ahead of it being listed. I got my shares that way. It was a little screwy though. Here's how it went:

- Nov. 1st they sent out a notification of it being possible to get IPO shares. For this you had to log into your account and submit a indication of interest (IOI) for how many shares you wanted to buy. I requested 100.
- Wait with no communication from them.
- Nov. 8th my account for it shows a screen with: money needs to be in the account by Nov. 8, shares allocated Nov. 9, IPO on Nov. 10.
- Still not communication from them other than the website change (no email or notification of it)
- Nov. 9th at 8 pm MST email received that order needs to be confirmed by midnight and the price was $78/share. (yes they gave 4 hours of lead time at 8 pm)
- In my account I could select to purchase 0-100 (IOI request) shares. Funds had to be available in the account for the #share * $78.
- I requested 41 at this point due to the funds requirement. I normally don't use SoFi for my brokerage so I was limited to the cash I could get moved in that short time frame.
- Nov. 10 I receive an email that I was allocated 18 shares from the 41 I requested. Funds withdrawn and I have the asset listed in my account.

They also have a soft lockup of 120 days on the shares. There's a $50 fee for the first sale and a $5 one for each additional one. In addition they say that selling early might cause you to be excluded from future IPOs that are available through SoFi.
 

BigRedRage

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I usually avoid the IPOs too if I have to buy on the open market. Usually they've already had an initial jump in price by the time we can buy. For the RIVN IPO SoFi offered shares priced at IPO to retail customers ahead of it being listed. I got my shares that way. It was a little screwy though. Here's how it went:

- Nov. 1st they sent out a notification of it being possible to get IPO shares. For this you had to log into your account and submit a indication of interest (IOI) for how many shares you wanted to buy. I requested 100.
- Wait with no communication from them.
- Nov. 8th my account for it shows a screen with: money needs to be in the account by Nov. 8, shares allocated Nov. 9, IPO on Nov. 10.
- Still not communication from them other than the website change (no email or notification of it)
- Nov. 9th at 8 pm MST email received that order needs to be confirmed by midnight and the price was $78/share. (yes they gave 4 hours of lead time at 8 pm)
- In my account I could select to purchase 0-100 (IOI request) shares. Funds had to be available in the account for the #share * $78.
- I requested 41 at this point due to the funds requirement. I normally don't use SoFi for my brokerage so I was limited to the cash I could get moved in that short time frame.
- Nov. 10 I receive an email that I was allocated 18 shares from the 41 I requested. Funds withdrawn and I have the asset listed in my account.

They also have a soft lockup of 120 days on the shares. There's a $50 fee for the first sale and a $5 one for each additional one. In addition they say that selling early might cause you to be excluded from future IPOs that are available through SoFi.
That's quite the exercise
 

Folster

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What's your guess?

Do you expect a market correction of 10%+ or market crash of 20%+ in the next 12 months?

Please elaborate on your prediction and whether you've made changes to your investment strategy.

I'm thinking that we'll see at least a correction, but likely a crash in the next 3-6 months. Q1 would be my guess.

This does not impact my long term retirement savings. In my midterm accounts I have a little dry powder from taking some profits. I also have some exposure to real assets and dividend payers.
 

dscher

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What's your guess?

Do you expect a market correction of 10%+ or market crash of 20%+ in the next 12 months?

Please elaborate on your prediction and whether you've made changes to your investment strategy.

I'm thinking that we'll see at least a correction, but likely a crash in the next 3-6 months. Q1 would be my guess.

This does not impact my long term retirement savings. In my midterm accounts I have a little dry powder from taking some profits. I also have some exposure to real assets and dividend payers.
It's a strange time right now. It feels like at any moment volatility could just explode and stocks get decimated. But as I've been watching, we just keep building more energy for an upside move in the vix that hasn't happened yet. We have junk bonds turning down, along with the dollar and treasuries in favorable spots looking to move higher. Crude is also stretched and needs a pullback.
 
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