The Market 2021

dscher

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That doesn't mean you can't position a portion of your portfolio with hedges to provide some protection against corrections and other adverse market conditions.
These are the things though that most people who don't work with the markets, like you and I do, have a great understanding of or how to go about it.
No. I am the opposite. I like risk. I just want to market time, and sell high and buy low.
Gotcha. Plenty of information and resources out there for beginners trying to swing trade or trade in general if you're passionate about it. Trading and actively investing requires passion to learn how to lose and win. imo... You can pm me if you would like some of the places I got started from.
 

Folster

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My problem is all my money is in a 401(K) with REALLY limited investment options. One year I did market time and that's why I have the money I have is I got out before a dip, bought back in after a dead cat bounce, and got all the money I have now. Otherwise the SP 500 fund I have, just kinda moves sideways overall. That's why I am trying to see when the dip is coming....

Sideways??? The S&P 500 is up 21.64% YTD and 31.28% over the last year. Its 3,5, and 10 year averages are 17.99%, 17.93%, and 16.23% respectively.
 

Yuma

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Sideways??? The S&P 500 is up 21.64% YTD and 31.28% over the last year. Its 3,5, and 10 year averages are 17.99%, 17.93%, and 16.23%.
I understand that, but my chart from 2019 to 2021 just rises a little over that time frame overall. It goes up and down, but basically over two years, I haven't gained that much overall. Mostly I am stuck in SP 500 fund.
 

Folster

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Things that make ya go hmmm...

I guess her flagship fund, ARKK still has 2.3B in $TSLA. So we're talking about less than 5% considering her other funds still have exposure. TSLA still makes up 11% of ARKK.
 

Russ Smith

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Inflation data comes out, it's actually lower than expected so experts say this should ease concerns, and then the markets immediately go south. After last week was hoping for some gains this week but right now today is wiping out yesterdays gains.
 

dscher

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Inflation data comes out, it's actually lower than expected so experts say this should ease concerns, and then the markets immediately go south. After last week was hoping for some gains this week but right now today is wiping out yesterdays gains.
I'm still in the camp that we've gone up too far and too fast that this next dip won't be a painless one...but, If you're a believer in this bull market..the best this thing can do is get a 5-10 percent pullback to digest gains. IMO. The market is unfortunately a backwardly emotional thing. Too much of a good thing at times can be a bad thing..
 

dscher

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Looks like we are getting that pullback here... Things are still in a precarious spot with the dollar and long term treasuries on the cusp of big breakouts. So the bottom may not be in yet.. but we may need a larger spike in the vix to capitulate.
 

Folster

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Looks like we are getting that pullback here... Things are still in a precarious spot with the dollar and long term treasuries on the cusp of big breakouts. So the bottom may not be in yet. but we may need a larger spike in the vix to capitulate.

Still early. People have been conditioned to buy on every pullback since the corona crash and they have been rewarded. Some question whether we'll ever have a prolonged correction/bear market. It'll happen, but it will likely be very painful. It would be nice to have 6 months or a year of a bear market to take advantage of as a millennial investor. Most of my prime investing years have been during periods of all time highs. The corona crash was a great buying opportunity, but it was so short.
 

dscher

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Still early. People have been conditioned to buy on every pullback since the corona crash and they have been rewarded. Some question whether we'll ever have a prolonged correction/bear market. It'll happen, but it will likely be very painful. It would be nice to have 6 months or a year of a bear market to take advantage of as a millennial investor. Most of my prime investing years have been during periods of all time highs. The corona crash was a great buying opportunity, but it was so short.
My concern...based on some of my analysis...is that we are all still talking about hyperinflation being the concern, all while, certain measures are showing that we could be swinging VERY quickly to the other end of the spectrum after all the printing from the bottom of the crash from fed intervention. I think we are in a spot where easing/injection is actually not working right now..and have merely kept the stock and debt markets afloat for months now. They will not be able to taper because it will absolutely ravage the markets. Rock and hard place the fed is.. imo.
 

dscher

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What do you guys think of the Evergrande situation and if it could cause the markets to tank?
He may not be for everyone..but I like his style. He knows his macro IMO. He just released this today.

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