The Luka Report

[Dr. Jones]

Holmes?!?!?!?!? 11 points and 0.7 assist guys are not hard to come by. So it comes down to, does adding Lopez add more value than Rubio.

Hell no.

Holmes as a backup? He was more than serviceable. But either way..... I don't think you are being fair. Lopez signed for the same amount (roughly) as Rubio but for one more year. That provides much more cap flexibility as well as a career 34% 3pt shot. And over 5 attempts per game.

Your telling me that Doncic & Lopez isn't better than Ayton & Rubio?

 

[AzStevenCal]

I think it's too early and the reverse might be true. Having Doncic in the short term would get us closer. However, IF and it's a big IF.....if Ayton lives up to his potential? I think that getting Rubio, drafting Ayton and putting them with Booker is the better longer term choice.

If Ayton doesn't live up to it? This team will definitely regret not picking Doncic. Again, though you can't blame the Suns. I don't think any team would have picked differently than the Suns leading up to the draft.

I think, even IF Ayton becomes the next David Robinson, that we would still be further along in our quest for a title if we had Doncic instead of Rubio, Deandre, Baynes, Kaminsky and Saric. The center position just doesn't hold the importance that it did even a decade ago and I don't see that changing. Luka makes everyone better and IMO is likely to be in the MVP discussion for the next decade plus.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I think, even IF Ayton becomes the next David Robinson, that we would still be further along in our quest for a title if we had Doncic instead of Rubio, Deandre, Baynes, Kaminsky and Saric. The center position just doesn't hold the importance that it did even a decade ago and I don't see that changing. Luka makes everyone better and IMO is likely to be in the MVP discussion for the next decade plus.

EXACTLY!!!!! I've been saying this for more than two years now.

The rule changes the NBA has made OVERemphasize ball handling and scoring. Plus zone defense and analytics have truly changed the low post game.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Agreed. It's not even close.

I prefer our overall roster (when healthy and eligible) over what Doncic has around him right now but that's solely due to Booker. Take Devin (and Doncic) out of the picture and our rosters aren't much different. But when Porzingis gets back to full health and assuming he finishes polishing his game, that will be a tough team to beat even come playoff time.

 

[Covert Rain]

Holmes as a backup? He was more than serviceable. But either way..... I don't think you are being fair. Lopez signed for the same amount (roughly) as Rubio but for one more year. That provides much more cap flexibility as well as a career 34% 3pt shot. And over 5 attempts per game.

Your telling me that Doncic & Lopez isn't better than Ayton & Rubio?

Are you assuming Ayton never reaches his potential of the #1 draft position? If so, well...yeah that's easy to say Doncic. But lets assume Ayton does reach his potential.

Your lineup could be Doncic/Booker/Oubre/<insert PF>/Lopez.

or

Your lineup could be Rubio/Booker/Oubre/<insert PF>/Ayton.

Both would be good lineups but I am taking the big man (assuming Ayton reaches his potential). Legit big man come along less frequently than stars at other positions. I simply don't buy into the big man isn't important in the NBA any longer. The league has changed because there hasn't been a string of good NBA big men entering the league. Slam dunks and layups are still a better % in the NBA than 3 point shooting.

If Ayton just as average? No question.

I think, even IF Ayton becomes the next David Robinson, that we would still be further along in our quest for a title if we had Doncic instead of Rubio, Deandre, Baynes, Kaminsky and Saric. The center position just doesn't hold the importance that it did even a decade ago and I don't see that changing. Luka makes everyone better and IMO is likely to be in the MVP discussion for the next decade plus.

That is ridiculous. Robinson, Ewing, Duncan, Shaq....all those guys dominate in today's game. Nobody could stop them. I think most teams would trade dunks and layups over 3's.

Do you honestly think any of the teams that went after the Suns pick Doncic over Ayton leading up to the draft? I don't. Which means teams in the NBA STILL covet a legit big man.

 

[SirStefan32]

I think it's too early and the reverse might be true. Having Doncic in the short term would get us closer. However, IF and it's a big IF.....if Ayton lives up to his potential? I think that getting Rubio, drafting Ayton and putting them with Booker is the better longer term choice.

If Ayton doesn't live up to it? This team will definitely regret not picking Doncic. Again, though you can't blame the Suns. I don't think any team would have picked differently than the Suns leading up to the draft.

I agree. Honestly, I was high on Luka, but I would have picked Ayton too.

 

[Covert Rain]

I agree. Honestly, I was high on Luka, but I would have picked Ayton too.

That's my point. I don't buy into the league has changed and therefore big men are not as valuable. Scouts had Ayton as the consensus #1 pick. He was #1 on NBA teams draft boards.

Here is the simple question. If legit big men no longer hold value in the league, why was Ayton the consensus #1 and #1 on just about every single teams draft board had they had the #1 pick???

 

[AzStevenCal]

I agree. Honestly, I was high on Luka, but I would have picked Ayton too.

By the time the draft rolled around I was pretty high on Doncic too but yeah, I was still in favor of taking Ayton. We were wrong but I think it's a very reasonable mistake on our part.

 

[Covert Rain]

By the time the draft rolled around I was pretty high on Doncic too but yeah, I was still in favor of taking Ayton. We were wrong but I think it's a very reasonable mistake on our part.

So you have written off Ayton already?

 

[Mainstreet]

All true and yet, had we drafted Doncic, I believe we'd be much closer to competing at the highest level then we are with Ayton and Rubio on the roster. So, maybe it would have cost us a little in the short run but in a quest for a championship, Luka would have put us far closer than any/all of the additions we made this season plus Ayton.

This.

Dallas can plug and play players next to Doncic because he can carry the team.

If Porzingis regains his form or the Mavericks can add another star they are in the mix. They are on the cusp of competing for a championship. The playoffs seem a given. That's a lot to say for a 20 year old player.

 

[AzStevenCal]

That's my point. I don't buy into the league has changed and therefore big men are not as valuable. Scouts at Ayton as the consensus #1 pick. He was #1 on NBA teams draft boards. If getting a legit big man wasn't important Ayton isn't #1 on most draft boards which wasn't the case.

The game and the league have changed considerably and in doing so the traditional "plodder" has gone the way of the dodo bird and even the well rounded, back to the basket bigs have lost a lot of value.

Someone like David Robinson though would still be a huge star in today's game, he just wouldn't have quite as much value as the best big men of previous generations. And I firmly believe that even though Ayton was the heavy favorite for the top pick, had they known what they now know about Luka, Doncic would have been as much of a consensus top pick as Lebron was when he came into the league.

And BTW, I don't think anyone is suggesting that getting a legit big man isn't still a goal of every team. It's just not the end all that it used to be.

 

[AzStevenCal]

So you have written off Ayton already?

Not at all. I've never believed he was the next David Robinson but I still believe he can become a top 5 center and that's something we've desperately needed since Neal Walk's short brush with stardom. But Doncic is already a top 5 player IMO and he impacts the game in ways that no big man is capable of with the current rules.

 

[SirStefan32]

By the time the draft rolled around I was pretty high on Doncic too but yeah, I was still in favor of taking Ayton. We were wrong but I think it's a very reasonable mistake on our part.

I think that's the key. Making mistakes is normal, so I tend to not dwell on mistakes in and of themselves. I really try to think about whether or not something was reasonable. In this case, it was absolutely reasonable to take Ayton with the number one pick.

 

[Dr. Jones]

That's my point. I don't buy into the league has changed and therefore big men are not as valuable. Scouts had Ayton as the consensus #1 pick. He was #1 on NBA teams draft boards.

Here is the simple question. If legit big men no longer hold value in the league, why was Ayton the consensus #1 and #1 on just about every single teams draft board had they had the #1 pick???

#1: The league has changed. You not believing it is the same as the answer to #2.

Just look at MVP's. When things were changing, no one understood why Nash was winning the MVP over Shaq. But we all saw it, and Dantoni saw it. Now..... Guards are almost always winning MVP awards. Giannis is the first NON 1 or 2 guard since Durant & Lebron in 2013. And I think we all know Durant and Lebron are primary ball-handlers regardless of position. The last center to win MVP: Shaq at the turn of the freaking century. KG in 2004 is the last TRUE low post Power Forward to win the award in 2004.

That's 15 years man. 15 years.

Ayton is going to need to become a Giannis / KG / Embid level freak to justify picking a 7 foot post dominant center over a ball-handling scoring/facilitating juggernaut.

Look at Steph, Lebron, KD, Dirk, Nash, Harden, etc.... the game HAS changed.



#2: Because a lot of old minds are not willing to see what the league is versus what it was. And the old boys club continues to stay the same in most places.

 

[AzStevenCal]

#2: Because a lot of old minds are not willing to see what the league is versus what it was. And the old boys club continues to stay the same in most places.

I agree with most of your post but not really this part. IMO Ayton as the top pick wasn't the result of "same old thinking" or stubborn old men following the time tested "draft big, you can't teach size" credo. He was the top pick because he had the best overall credentials thanks in no small part to Trae Young's collapse in the second half of the season.

Teams have been burned time and again by drafting the next great Euro player so some/many of them mistakenly discounted Luka's success. Had they known then how Luka and his game would translate to the NBA I highly doubt that even one of them would have still been on the draft Ayton first bandwagon.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

That's my point. I don't buy into the league has changed and therefore big men are not as valuable. Scouts had Ayton as the consensus #1 pick. He was #1 on NBA teams draft boards.

Here is the simple question. If legit big men no longer hold value in the league, why was Ayton the consensus #1 and #1 on just about every single teams draft board had they had the #1 pick???

Care to share a link of all those teams draft boards? The only team we know had Ayton #1 was the Suns, but many teams may have have seen other players as the top guy.

I have a sneaking suspicion that Dallas had Luka #1 and Atlanta was quite possibly Trae. Also quite possible the Kings’ still take Bagley as well.

I personally believe Ayton was the top prospect in that draft (at least at the time), but I have seen nothing to suggest that NBA front offices widely agreed with me.

 

[Covert Rain]

#1: The league has changed. You not believing it is the same as the answer to #2.

Just look at MVP's. When things were changing, no one understood why Nash was winning the MVP over Shaq. But we all saw it, and Dantoni saw it. Now..... Guards are almost always winning MVP awards. Giannis is the first NON 1 or 2 guard since Durant & Lebron in 2013. And I think we all know Durant and Lebron are primary ball-handlers regardless of position. The last center to win MVP: Shaq at the turn of the freaking century. KG in 2004 is the last TRUE low post Power Forward to win the award in 2004.

That's 15 years man. 15 years.

Ayton is going to need to become a Giannis / KG / Embid level freak to justify picking a 7 foot post dominant center over a ball-handling scoring/facilitating juggernaut.

Look at Steph, Lebron, KD, Dirk, Nash, Harden, etc.... the game HAS changed.


#2: Because a lot of old minds are not willing to see what the league is versus what it was. And the old boys club continues to stay the same in most places.

What the hell are you talking about? Who said the league hasn't changed? That is not at all what I said. I am saying the league has changed because the types of players coming out of college have changed. You are not seeing a string of great big men coming into the league. You adjust based on what is out there. That doesn't mean that all of the sudden having legit big men who are potential stars means that teams don't want them or wouldn't jump at them for a #1 pick.

I personally believe Ayton was the top prospect in that draft (at least at the time), but I have seen nothing to suggest that NBA front offices widely agreed with me.

I didn't know your view was so unique?!?! Dude seriously. Don't know how much you listened to team interviews, looked at projected draft boards, read scouting reports etc. However, almost unanimously based on NBA reporting they said teams had Ayton going #1. They had him as the closest thing to a "lock" in the draft.

The Suns fielded calls that entire day for that pick. On the flipside they had Doncic going all over the place in the draft. There were questions about Doncic translating to the NBA even though teams thought he could contribute. Hell the Kings passed on him too.

I get it hindsight is 20/20. No matter how this turns out this is one of the few times I wont fault the Suns for making this pick. If they went against the grain and chose Ayton that would be different.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I didn't know your view was so unique?!?! Dude seriously. Don't know how much you listened to team interviews, looked at projected draft boards, read scouting reports etc. However, almost unanimously based on NBA reporting they said teams had Ayton going #1. They had him as the closest thing to a "lock" in the draft.

The Suns fielded call that entire day for that pick. On the flipside they had Doncic going all over the place. There were questions about Doncic translating to the NBA even though teams thought he could contribute. Hell the Kings passed on him too.

Not saying that he wasn’t the majority #1 pick, but you were making it sound like every NBA team had him as the #1 prospect and I highly doubt that is true. There were a decent amount of media outlets at the time that believed Doncic was the top guy and I suspect there were teams that felt the same way.

 

[Covert Rain]

Not saying that he wasn’t the majority #1 pick, but you were making it sound like every NBA team had him as the #1 prospect and I highly doubt that is true. There were a decent amount of media outlets at the time that believed Doncic was the top guy and I suspect there were teams that felt the same way.

Well you took it a little literally. I didn't mean 100% with 100% certainty. Consensus doesn't mean 100%.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I agree with most of your post but not really this part. IMO Ayton as the top pick wasn't the result of "same old thinking" or stubborn old men following the time tested "draft big, you can't teach size" credo. He was the top pick because he had the best overall credentials thanks in no small part to Trae Young's collapse in the second half of the season.

Teams have been burned time and again by drafting the next great Euro player so some/many of them mistakenly discounted Luka's success. Had they known then how Luka and his game would translate to the NBA I highly doubt that even one of them would have still been on the draft Ayton first bandwagon.

If resume was the standard..... Doncic & Bagley would have been 1 & 2.

Doncic was the STAR of Euroleague at 19. The Star of the Euro Champions team (that included Dragic) at 18.

Along with Doncic......Trae Young has ELITE & translatable...... BASKETBALL Skills.

Ayton & Bagley are physically gifted athletic specimen's with no elite NBA level skills. They are just so dammed dominant that it didn't matter. IMO they are currently the low post version of Andrew Wiggins. Tantalizing talent but unfulfilled promise.

 

[Dr. Jones]

What the hell are you talking about? Who said the league hasn't changed? That is not at all what I said. I am saying the league has changed because the types of players coming out of college have changed. You are not seeing a string of great big men coming into the league. You adjust based on what is out there. That doesn't mean that all of the sudden having legit big men who are potential stars means that teams don't want them or wouldn't jump at them for a #1 pick.

If I got it right..... Your saying that big men are just as valuable as they were in the 90's and early 2000's but the college game hasn't given us any? Therefore there haven't been any?

 

[Chaplin]

Care to share a link of all those teams draft boards? The only team we know had Ayton #1 was the Suns, but many teams may have have seen other players as the top guy.

I have a sneaking suspicion that Dallas had Luka #1 and Atlanta was quite possibly Trae. Also quite possible the Kings’ still take Bagley as well.

I personally believe Ayton was the top prospect in that draft (at least at the time), but I have seen nothing to suggest that NBA front offices widely agreed with me.

The Kings obviously didn't have Luka as #1.

 

[SirStefan32]

I don't think the league has irreversibly changed. Yeah, guard/ wing play has dominated over the past few years, but I think these things largely depend on who is in the league. I think if a few big men become a huge force for their team, the league will shift away (at least a bit) away from the whole guard/ wing thing. I don't buy the "Big men are not important anymore" narrative. Guys like Jokic and Embid are essential to their teams. If Ayton develops how we hope he will develop, he will be every bit as important to his team. If 20-something Shaq, Hakeem, Robinson, and Ewing entered the league today, things would shift back towards big men again.

 

[95pro]

Teams started aiming for interchangeable parts instead of specialized players.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I don't think the league has irreversibly changed. Yeah, guard/ wing play has dominated over the past few years, but I think these things largely depend on who is in the league. I think if a few big men become a huge force for their team, the league will shift away (at least a bit) away from the whole guard/ wing thing. I don't buy the "Big men are not important anymore" narrative. Guys like Jokic and Embid are essential to their teams. If Ayton develops how we hope he will develop, he will be every bit as important to his team. If 20-something Shaq, Hakeem, Robinson, and Ewing entered the league today, things would shift back towards big men again.

Interesting. Although I disagree, the point is fair.

My view is that Hakeem, David Robinson, and the like would develop a much better 3pt shot nowadays while Shaq, and David Robinson would get marginalized.

I think Shaq & Wilt may be the only two outliers though. Their individual physical dominance was so profound, that they had to be accounted for. But even then..... Hack-a-shaq became a "thing" because of his inability to hit the most basic of shots.

In short, the league has adjusted IMO.