Our newest troll has inadvertently raised an interesting topic -- who will be the league's dominant players in, say, four years?
Obviously this is highly speculative, but here's my guess at the top five. The number in parentheses is each player's age when the 2006-07 season starts.
1. Kobe Bryant (28). Still young, still getting better every year, and still hungry. By 2006-07, he won't have O'Neal around anymore, so he'll be leading teams himself. That will take some getting used to, but my guess is that he'll have it figured out by then.
2. Jermaine O'Neal (28). I already consider him the dominant big man in the East, and I think he matured a lot this year. Once he gets the mental aspect of the game figured out, he'll be a menace.
3. Tim Duncan (30). Unlike Garnett (see below), Duncan should be at full strength through his early 30s. As he showed in the playoff series against the Suns, he is becoming a pretty adept passer, and he is still a terror on the boards even when taken out of his offensive game.
4. Amare Stoudemire (23). Sure, this is from a Suns fan. But there are very few players taken from the last few drafts who seem to have Stoudemire's potential to impact the league. A year ago I would have put Elton Brand here, but Brand seems to lack the fire to be the emotional leader of a team.
5. Tracy McGrady (27). Could be higher, but the question about McGrady is whether he's really as good as his numbers, or if his numbers get inflated because he's the only good player on his team. I know he's very good, but is he that good? I'm not convinced. Also, he seems to pick up a lot of minor injuries, and that is a concern.
Missing the cut:
Kevin Garnett (30). Thirty isn't old, but Garnett's game is so based on agility and quickness that I think he'll start to slow down just a little sooner than most players.
Yao Ming (26). Will he have the passion to develop his NBA game? I don't think so. As hard as it has been for him to make the transition from one culture to another, it will be even more difficult to commit himself fully to the NBA when China keeps him on such a short leash.
Dirk Nowitzki (28). Still not much of a defender, and still without much of a post game. Can a seven-footer dominate the league by shooting from the perimeter? Probably not.
Stephon Marbury (29). It would be unfair to ignore Marbury in this discussion. He has always been one of the most potent offensive forces in the game, and now he is combining that with pretty good defense and some genuine leadership. I don't think he'll be in the top five, but I do think he'll be recognized as the best of the league's "older" point guards.
Kenyon Martin (28). I think Martin will be very good, and this was something of a breakthrough season for him. It remains to be seen, however, how adept he is at creating his own offense when he has to do more than run the floor with Jason Kidd.
Paul Pierce (29). I like Pierce, but he doesn't create offense for his teammates, and he doesn't shoot a high enough percentage.
Steve Francis (29). With poor discipline and only six assists per game, Francis is the player that Marbury is sometimes accused of being.
LeBron James (22). Let him play a minute or two against adults first before we proclaim him the Next Big Thing.
Who did I miss?
Obviously this is highly speculative, but here's my guess at the top five. The number in parentheses is each player's age when the 2006-07 season starts.
1. Kobe Bryant (28). Still young, still getting better every year, and still hungry. By 2006-07, he won't have O'Neal around anymore, so he'll be leading teams himself. That will take some getting used to, but my guess is that he'll have it figured out by then.
2. Jermaine O'Neal (28). I already consider him the dominant big man in the East, and I think he matured a lot this year. Once he gets the mental aspect of the game figured out, he'll be a menace.
3. Tim Duncan (30). Unlike Garnett (see below), Duncan should be at full strength through his early 30s. As he showed in the playoff series against the Suns, he is becoming a pretty adept passer, and he is still a terror on the boards even when taken out of his offensive game.
4. Amare Stoudemire (23). Sure, this is from a Suns fan. But there are very few players taken from the last few drafts who seem to have Stoudemire's potential to impact the league. A year ago I would have put Elton Brand here, but Brand seems to lack the fire to be the emotional leader of a team.
5. Tracy McGrady (27). Could be higher, but the question about McGrady is whether he's really as good as his numbers, or if his numbers get inflated because he's the only good player on his team. I know he's very good, but is he that good? I'm not convinced. Also, he seems to pick up a lot of minor injuries, and that is a concern.
Missing the cut:
Kevin Garnett (30). Thirty isn't old, but Garnett's game is so based on agility and quickness that I think he'll start to slow down just a little sooner than most players.
Yao Ming (26). Will he have the passion to develop his NBA game? I don't think so. As hard as it has been for him to make the transition from one culture to another, it will be even more difficult to commit himself fully to the NBA when China keeps him on such a short leash.
Dirk Nowitzki (28). Still not much of a defender, and still without much of a post game. Can a seven-footer dominate the league by shooting from the perimeter? Probably not.
Stephon Marbury (29). It would be unfair to ignore Marbury in this discussion. He has always been one of the most potent offensive forces in the game, and now he is combining that with pretty good defense and some genuine leadership. I don't think he'll be in the top five, but I do think he'll be recognized as the best of the league's "older" point guards.
Kenyon Martin (28). I think Martin will be very good, and this was something of a breakthrough season for him. It remains to be seen, however, how adept he is at creating his own offense when he has to do more than run the floor with Jason Kidd.
Paul Pierce (29). I like Pierce, but he doesn't create offense for his teammates, and he doesn't shoot a high enough percentage.
Steve Francis (29). With poor discipline and only six assists per game, Francis is the player that Marbury is sometimes accused of being.
LeBron James (22). Let him play a minute or two against adults first before we proclaim him the Next Big Thing.
Who did I miss?
Last edited:
ARI @ LAR
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