The D-backs’ August resurrection

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At the trade deadline on July 31st, the Arizona Diamondbacks had a 51-58 record. There were only four teams in the NL with a worse record, and the D-backs were closer to the 14th-place Nationals than a wild-card spot. The decision to work towards 2026 was basically a no-brainer, and the team had a number of assets of interest to other teams. The result was one of the biggest deadline sell-offs in team history. The Diamondbacks traded away their HR and RBI leader, the best starting pitcher, their closer, and their everyday first baseman. A total of 8.8 bWAR through four months left the team, in exchange for rookies, prospects and salary relief.

It looked like it was going to be a very long last two months of the season for Diamondbacks fans. We gritted our teeth, muttered something about looking forward to next year, and prepared to embrace the spirit of Tankathon 2025, for a better draft position next June. But something highly unexpected happened, because the unexpected collapse did not come to pass. Indeed, after the clearance sale, the team posted their best month of the season in August. The D-backs currently have an active streak of five unbeaten series – all of them coming against opponents ahead of them in the standings, going 4-1-0, including wins over the Dodgers, Rangers and Reds.

How has an outfit which was expected to fold, ended up going 19-13 since the deadline? Let’s dig into the numbers at the team and player level, and see what we can find.

Offense​

• Before deadline: .248/.323/.436 = .759 OPS (4th), wRC+ 108 (6th), fWAR 17.5 (6th)
• After deadline: .253/.318/.437 = .755 OPS (8th), wRC+ 107 (10th), fWAR 5.7 (7th)

Here’s it’s the lack of change which is the surprise. For if you looked at the numbers above, you would not guess the team now is without Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor, who had combined for 47 HR and 146 RBI before being traded away. It was indeed a case of selling high for both players, Suarez in particular. He had a 140 OPS+ for Arizona, but has struggled in Seattle, where his OPS+ is only 88. Naylor’s production has also dropped since his move to the Mariners, though to a lesser extent – his OPS+ has declined from 120 to 99. Given both are also two-month rentals, getting anything for them is a win for the Diamondbacks.

Who has taken up the slack? The usual suspects have taken up the slack, with Corbin Carroll (.963 OPS since August 1), Geraldo Perdomo (.906) and Ketel Marte (.891) leading the way. For Carroll and Perdomo, that’s a hundred points or more improvement over their figure at the trade deadline. The pair have also been more active and successful on the base-paths, going 19-1 in stolen base attempts. The return of Gabriel Moreno behind the plate has also been a boost, his .868 OPS over eleven games since coming off the IL being a clear improvement over James McCann and Jose Herrera.

More unexpectedly is the good production received from Blaze Alexander, whose seven home-runs since August 1 trails just Carroll. His .867 OPS has been a pleasant surprise, though he is striking out in almost one-third of his plate appearances, so this may not be sustainable. It has not all been good news. Outfielders Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy are both below a .700 OPS, and have a combined K:BB ratio of a staggering 44:3 post-deadline, which likely factors into Alexander being tried in the outfield. Meanwhile, the struggles of new arrival Tyler Locklear and top position player prospect Jordan Lawlar have been well documented.

Starting pitching​

• Before deadline: 37-38, 4.38 ERA (23rd), 4.34 FIP (20th), 5.2 fWAR (27th)
• After deadline: 11-4, 4.15 ERA (12th), 3.64 FIP (4th), 2.9 fWAR (6th)

The W-L record is certainly nice. Arizona’s starters have taken the loss just four times in thirty-two starts. The return to Cy Young form of Zac Gallen is the clear headline here, going 4-1 across seven outings, with a 2.20 ERA. He probably hasn’t been quite that good, but a FIP of 3.21 is clearly better than the 4.67 he posted before the deadline. It bodes well for the Qualifying Offer thing: either Gallen accepts and hopefully produces as he has of late, or tests the market and Arizona gets a bonus draft pick. Nabil Crismatt’s 2.14 ERA has also been a revelation: while his FIP is more than a run higher, I’d be more than happy to settle for it regressing to that 3.28 figure.

On the other hand, Ryne Nelson’s FIP is more than a run lower than his ERA (4.58 vs. 3.48), driven by a spiffy K:BB ratio of 34:5. The same goes to an even greater degree for Brandon Pfaadt. Although he has had an ugly 6.16 ERA, that is heavily driven by an ugly .398 BABIP. His FIP is all the way down at 3.30 – better than Nelson’s. Can’t really say the same about Eduardo Rodriguez. While he has pitched better of late, it’s all relative: a 4.73 ERA and 4.56 FIP since August 1st isn’t going to win any Cy Young votes, or come close to justifying E-Rod’s $20 million price-tag this year. All told though, the rotation has improved, and peripherally greatly so.

Relief pitching​

• Before deadline: 14-20, 4.96 ERA (26th), 4.35 FIP (25th), 0.1 fWAR (28th), WP -298% (29th)
• After deadline: 8-9, 3.72 ERA (11th), 4.43 FIP (21st), -0.4 fWAR (28th), WP +30% (17th)

Conversely, this area looks a lot better, with an ERA almost a run and a quarter better than before the deadline. The massive difference in Win Probability also certainly has help lower consumption of antacids in the state of Arizona. However, looking at the peripheral stats, there are grounds to be skeptical whether this is a “real” improvement or just the result of good luck. In particular, the D-backs’ bullpen BABIP has dropped from .318 (2nd-highest) before the deadline, to .250 since then (3rd-lowest). If you take defense out of the equation, Arizona’s bullpen FIP has actually increased slightly. I’d expect the collective ERA to regress in line with it going forward.

In particular, John Curtiss (.114), Andrew Saalfrank (.182) and Jalen Beeks (.200) have been among the “luckiest” of Arizona pitchers post-deadline. Together, they have thrown 44.1 innings with an ERA of 1.83. If you prefer looking at relievers through Win Probability, they have 17 shutdowns and only 3 meltdowns, which is also very good. It’s probably not going to last either. You have been warned. However, these games still act as a good laboratory in which to test possible candidates for the 2026 bullpen in actual high-leverage situations, without needing to worry (ChefAZ aside!) about it impacting playoff contention. That’s why we have 16 pitchers with saves!

Conclusion​

There’s no doubt August was a palate cleansing lemon sorbet of a month, rather than the crap sandwich largely anticipated after the deadline moves. The schedule doesn’t do Arizona any favors the rest of the way. According to Tankathon, Arizona has the second-hardest set of games remaining, behind just St. Louis, with three against the Twins as good as it gets for the D-backs. The team needs a winning record of 11-10 to reach .500, and that seems like a decent challenge [Fangraphs projects a 10-11 record, which would leave them at 80-82]. The loss of Lourdes Gurriel, after am impressively productive August, certainly will not help.

I would say that the Diamondbacks reaching .500, given the long list of injuries, would actually be quite an impressive feat. It likely depends on Gallen remaining solid, Nelson and Pfaadt performing closer to their August FIPs than their ERAs, and it would be nice if Rodriguez could join the party. I’m probably most concerned about the relievers, where we have a cast with scarily little experience. I suspect we have not seen the last of the horror show which was the 2025 Diamondbacks bullpen! As for the offense, just keep doing what they’ve doing, and stay healthy. Everything else should take care of itself. Then, fingers crossed, .500 here we come!

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