The Christian Kirk Quandary (aka Ant-Man Problems)

Chopper0080

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Christian Kirk is having a very productive season in his contract year and finally in the role that best suits him (ala Reddick). The problem is that Kirk is going to want to get far greater than his production and his lack of versatility will be a factor when deciding to pay him. On top of this, Rondale Moore (aka Ant-Man) looks amazing and like he needs more snaps in games potentially at the same spot Kirk plays. Here is what we know.

1 - Kirk can't play outside. At least not well. Multiple seasons have shown that.

2 - Kirk as a primary slot WR in this offense equates to 60% of snaps, 37th in the NFL in yards, 80th in targets and 40th in receptions.

3 - To increase that, Rondale or our starting TE would need to play less. Neither are great options.

4 - Hard decisions will need to be had as we are approaching Kyler's extension which will squeeze the roster.

5 - AJ Green will be a FA and that would leave an opening at the outside WR role.

Here is where the Cardinals would benefit from some tinkering in order to see if they can afford to re-sign Kirk and that tinkering is getting Rondale Moore reps as the outside WR in 21 and 12 personnel groupings. If he can show he can make it work, then you let AJ go, re-sign Kirk to maintain his current role and elevate Moore to the #2 WR role. If he can't, you know you need to retain AJ Green, give Moore an expanded role and find a 4th WR option for the 25% to 45% role Moore would be vacating. Either way, as they can afford to, the Cardinals would be wise to find opportunities to see all of what Moore can do so they can make an educated decision regarding Kirk in the off-season.
 

BritCard

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Why will he want more than he's worth? Well, more than usual as everyone wants more than they are worth.

He's a home town guys. His family are local. When you hear him speak he know's he has under performed.

Long way to go yet and a lot will depend on his numbers but I don't see him asking for more than the market sets. I think the Cards try to resign all WR's. Whether they can or not will depends on a lot of things.
 
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Chopper0080

Chopper0080

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Why will he want more than he's worth? Well, more than usual as everyone wants more than they are worth.

He's a home town guys. His family are local. When you hear him speak he know's he has under performed.

Long way to go yet and a lot will depend on his numbers but I don't see him asking for more than the market sets. I think the Cards try to resign all WR's. Whether they can or not will depends on a lot of things.
Talent vs role. Kirk has a role on the Cardinals as a WR3 and a limited role (slot only). Some team will pay him for a greater role. We see that every year in free agency at the WR position. Nelson Agholor gets an average of 11/per year. Randall Cobb 9. Kirk is arguably better than both but I don't know that you want to pay Kirk 9 mil per year to keep Rondale Moore off the field.
 

ASUCHRIS

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Yeah, I'm not feeling this one...like it or not, Moore plays the same position as Kirk, and will be 10% of the cost. As you mentioned, Kyler's extension will require some financial decisions, and paying Kirk to play anything other than the slot doesn't make sense.
 

Minski

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I hope we can re-sign him for a reasonable home town discount. He does disappear at times and for games, but what is clear is Kyler has a good bond with him which isn't always a given with QB-WR combos
 

SoonerLou

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Talent vs role. Kirk has a role on the Cardinals as a WR3 and a limited role (slot only). Some team will pay him for a greater role. We see that every year in free agency at the WR position. Nelson Agholor gets an average of 11/per year. Randall Cobb 9. Kirk is arguably better than both but I don't know that you want to pay Kirk 9 mil per year to keep Rondale Moore off the field.

I believe Moore can play outside. He's incredibly strong so pressing him would be difficult.
Yea if anything we might need to see Rondale get a few more snaps on the outside. Lets see if he really is Tyreke level or not.
 
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Chopper0080

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Do you have proof?
Andy Reid, Bruce Arians, John Harbaugh and Bill Belichick have all talked about how teams and players grow throughout a season. What you do with certain players early in the season can evolves to different roles. It isn't unreal to think that Moore has already evolved from a return and 4th WR player to a larger role. Marco Wilson has done the same.

Getting Moore reps in 21 and 12 personnel has benefits to this season as well as next offseason. Having some info on what you can do if Green was injured is helpful. do you play Kirk outside, Wesley, or can you move Moore out there. Valuable info at the cost of a handful of snaps a game to AJ Green.
 
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Chopper0080

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Really?

Teams in a mad fight, scramble to make the playoffs screw around with their game plans to answer an offseason hypothetical scenario?
You make it sound so dramatic to take a player who is already growing out of his role and giving him a few snaps on different personnel groupings within a weekly game plan.
 

HomerPimpson

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Talent vs role. Kirk has a role on the Cardinals as a WR3 and a limited role (slot only). Some team will pay him for a greater role. We see that every year in free agency at the WR position. Nelson Agholor gets an average of 11/per year. Randall Cobb 9. Kirk is arguably better than both but I don't know that you want to pay Kirk 9 mil per year to keep Rondale Moore off the field.
It pains me to agree with you.
 

Krangodnzr

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Andy Reid, Bruce Arians, John Harbaugh and Bill Belichick have all talked about how teams and players grow throughout a season. What you do with certain players early in the season can evolves to different roles. It isn't unreal to think that Moore has already evolved from a return and 4th WR player to a larger role. Marco Wilson has done the same.

Getting Moore reps in 21 and 12 personnel has benefits to this season as well as next offseason. Having some info on what you can do if Green was injured is helpful. do you play Kirk outside, Wesley, or can you move Moore out there. Valuable info at the cost of a handful of snaps a game to AJ Green.
I agree with your basic premise, though Green's size has been a boon for Murray. You can tell Murray is comfortable throwing passes to big receivers who just Moss their opponent, something Joe Burrow wasn't comfortable with last year.

It's a good problem to have, but it's also a problem the Cardinals could really screw up long term. I think that you can't keep all of the receivers together, but I might actually just let Kirk walk, have Moore play the slot and get more snaps, and resign Green to similar contract terms as the last offseason. Sure Green is likely to slow down soon, but his size will still give the team a weapon.

I like Kirk, but I think Moore ultimately will be better, and the Cardinals can look to the mid-rounds of the draft for another slot player.
 

slanidrac16

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It’s fun to contemplate the future but so many things can change by next year. Depth is huge and I don’t like losing players that seem to finally fit.
 

HomerPimpson

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I agree with your basic premise, though Green's size has been a boon for Murray. You can tell Murray is comfortable throwing passes to big receivers who just Moss their opponent, something Joe Burrow wasn't comfortable with last year.

It's a good problem to have, but it's also a problem the Cardinals could really screw up long term. I think that you can't keep all of the receivers together, but I might actually just let Kirk walk, have Moore play the slot and get more snaps, and resign Green to similar contract terms as the last offseason. Sure Green is likely to slow down soon, but his size will still give the team a weapon.

I like Kirk, but I think Moore ultimately will be better, and the Cardinals can look to the mid-rounds of the draft for another slot player.
I'm convinced Moore can already play #2 receiver. His technical skills are sufficient, even as a rook. Kirk is the slot guy not Moore. Kirk imo doesn't have the technical proficiency as Moore, even though he's a rookie. I've been kind of down on Kirk since he got here, I just don't see anything there man. IMO he's easily replaceable.
 

SissyBoyFloyd

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I don't know where this fits in the discussion, but Kirk is still really young and learning to find his true spot on this team. WR depth is very important on a team like ours. There is something to be said for a player wanting to stay with a team that is just beginning to show its true potential.

I don't know anything personally about Kirk, but maybe he won't consider money as the major thing in deciding his immediate future. Maybe he will see the opportunity to stay with a team like the Cards as a chance to continue to become all that he can be on a fun winning team, more important than the making more money right now. Maybe that would actually serve him better in making more money down the line.
 

Dr. Jones

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Based on the production alone, Kirk comes back. WR's at his level are paid pretty small amounts.

For example:
The average WR in the NFL according to Spotrac makes 2.6 million. What does Kirk make this year? 2.43 million.

Emmanuel Sanders & AJ Green are both making 6mm and both (IMO) are more proven players.
Sammy Watkins: 5 million
DJax: 4.5 million

I think Kirk will be in there somewhere (at best). ESPECIALLY since so many WR's took one year prove it deals last year due to the tightening of the cap. This should really help us sign our guys as there will be a larger than normal amount of players on the market.

Possible FA's right now: Davante, Juju, ARob, Fuller, Godwin, Hilton, Green, Kirk, Watkins, DJax, Crowder, Sanders, Mike Williams, etc.

On the other hand..... Spotrac does rank Kirk as the #10 value at the WR position this year. So it may go sideways if we aren't proactive with him.
 

Dr. Jones

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Another great thing...... there are a ton of good FA's coming in 22 at all positions. This will invariably drive down prices and only magnify the delta between the big star contracts and the money left over for role-players.

Sure the cap is going up too, but the supply should be well out in front of the demand IMO.

 

QuebecCard

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You make it sound so dramatic to take a player who is already growing out of his role and giving him a few snaps on different personnel groupings within a weekly game plan.

So we're going from preparing for next season to a few snaps in a weekly game plan that actually relates to how you may design an attack in a given game? You weren't saying the latter, but I'm all in favour of it as it quite possibly makes 'real' time sense.
 

Russ Smith

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I agree with your basic premise, though Green's size has been a boon for Murray. You can tell Murray is comfortable throwing passes to big receivers who just Moss their opponent, something Joe Burrow wasn't comfortable with last year.

It's a good problem to have, but it's also a problem the Cardinals could really screw up long term. I think that you can't keep all of the receivers together, but I might actually just let Kirk walk, have Moore play the slot and get more snaps, and resign Green to similar contract terms as the last offseason. Sure Green is likely to slow down soon, but his size will still give the team a weapon.

I like Kirk, but I think Moore ultimately will be better, and the Cardinals can look to the mid-rounds of the draft for another slot player.

That's precisely why I love Drake London of USC. he's no amazing player not even close to what Green was in college but he's a big strong WR who can box guys out and get the ball in the air. If Green prices himself out London would be a nice replacement although I fear he's going to play himself into the first 2 rounds and I don't see us taking WR there I think we have needs at CB, Edge, DT and OL before another WR.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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So we're going from preparing for next season to a few snaps in a weekly game plan that actually relates to how you may design an attack in a given game? You weren't saying the latter, but I'm all in favour of it as it quite possibly makes 'real' time sense.
You interpreted what you thought he meant incorrectly. I understood what he said from the initial post.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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No, I didn't but thanks for the input.
Ah so now you can tell chopper what he meant? Got it.

Here’s what he said, that you misinterpreted:

“Here is where the Cardinals would benefit from some tinkering in order to see if they can afford to re-sign Kirk and that tinkering is getting Rondale Moore reps as the outside WR in 21 and 12 personnel groupings. If he can show he can make it work, then you let AJ go, re-sign Kirk to maintain his current role and elevate Moore to the #2 WR role. If he can't, you know you need to retain AJ Green, give Moore an expanded role and find a 4th WR option for the 25% to 45% role Moore would be vacating. Either way, as they can afford to, the Cardinals would be wise to find opportunities to see all of what Moore can do so they can make an educated decision regarding Kirk in the off-season”
 

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