Some Draft Data Analysis based on Top 100 Players

[slinslin]

I did some work here based on the top 100 players voting done on the realgm player comparison board.

|| Top100# || Player Name || Draft Position || Draft Year ||
1	1) Michael Jordan	3	1984
2	2) Bill Russell	2	1956
3	3) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	1	1969
4	4) Magic Johnson	1	1979
5	5) Wilt Chamberlain	0	1959
6	6) Larry Bird	6	1978
7	7) Shaquille O'Neal	1	1992
8	8) Tim Duncan	1	1997
9	9) Hakeem Olajuwon	1	1984
10	10) Kobe Bryant	13	1996
11	11) Julius Erving	12	1972
12	12) Karl Malone	13	1985
13	13) Kevin Garnett	5	1995
14	14) Oscar Robertson	1	1960
15	15) Jerry West	2	1960
16	16) Moses Malone	0	1976
17	17) Dirk Nowitzki	9	1999
18	18) LeBron James	1	2003
19	19) Bob Pettit	2	1954
20	20) Charles Barkley	5	1984
21	21) David Robinson	1	1987
22	22) Dwyane Wade	5	2003
23	23) Walt Frazier	5	1967
24	24) Steve Nash	15	1996
25	25) Scottie Pippen	5	1987
26	26) Elgin Baylor	1	1958
27	27) Patrick Ewing	1	1985
28	28) John Havlicek	7	1962
29	29) Isiah Thomas	2	1981
30	30) Rick Barry	2	1965
31	31) John Stockton	16	1984
32	32) Gary Payton	2	1990
33	33) Clyde Drexler	14	1983
34	34) Artis Gilmore	117	1971
35	35) George Gervin	40	1974
36	36) Jason Kidd	2	1994
37	37) Tracy McGrady	9	1997
38	38) Paul Pierce	10	1998
39	39) Dwight Howard	1	2004
40	40) Kevin McHale	3	1980
41	41) Dominique Wilkins	3	1982
42	42) Reggie Miller	11	1987
43	43) Willis Reed	8	1964
44	44) Bob Cousy	3	1950
45	45) Dave Cowens	4	1970
46	46) Allen Iverson	1	1996
47	47) Bill Walton	1	1974
48	48) Alonzo Mourning	2	1992
49	49) Elvin Hayes	1	1968
50	50) Chris Paul 	4	2005
51	51) Kevin Johnson	7	1987
52	52) Bob McAdoo	2	1972
53	53) Sidney Moncrief	5	1979
54	54) Ray Allen	5	1996
55	55) Bob Lanier	1	1970
56	56) Alex English	23	1976
57	57) Wes Unseld	2	1968
58	58) Paul Arizin	0	1950
59	59) Sam Jones	8	1957
60	60) Manu Ginobili	57	1999
61	61) Marques Johnson	3	1977
62	62) Pau Gasol	3	2001
63	63) Bernard King	7	1977
64	64) Dennis Rodman	27	1986
65	65) Penny Hardaway	3	1993
66	66) Nate Thurmond	3	1963
67	67) Robert Parish	8	1976
68	68) Dolph Schayes	4	1948
69	69) Grant Hill	3	1994
70	70) Vince Carter	5	1998
71	71) Dikembe Mutombo	4	1991
72	72) Billy Cunningham	5	1965
73	73) James Worthy	1	1982
74	74) David Thompson	1	1975
75	75) Nate Archibald	19	1970
76	76) Chris Webber	1	1973
77	77) Bobby Jones	5	1974
78	78) Hal Greer	13	1958
79	79) Mark Price	25	1986
80	80) Connie Hawkins	0	1969
81	81) Ben Wallace	0	1996
82	82) Shawn Kemp	17	1989
83	83) Chauncey Billups	3	1997
84	84) Adrian Dantley	6	1976
85	85) Deron Williams	3	2005
86	86) Elton Brand	1	1999
87	87) Bill Sharman	0	1950
88	88) Jack Sikma	8	1977
89	89) Mel Daniels	9	1967
90	90) Larry Nance	20	1981
91	91) Joe Dumars	18	1985
92	92) Gus Williams	20	1975
93	93) Carmelo Anthony	3	2003
94	94) Tim Hardaway	14	1989
95	95) Jerry Lucas	0	1962
96	96) Chris Mullin	7	1985
97	97) Dave DeBusschere	0	1962
98	98) Brad Daugherty	1	1986
99	99) Bob Dandridge	45	1969
100	100) Bill Laimbeer 	65	1979

Avg Draft Position Top 100 9,4 ( excluding players that were not drafted )

Avg Draft Position Top 10 3,22 excludes Wilt Chamberlain
Avg Draft Position #10-20 7 excludes Moses Malone
Avg Draft Position #20-30 4,9
Avg Draft Position #30-40 21,6 -> Gilmore #117, Gervin #40, Stockton #16 and Drexler #14
Avg Draft Position #40-50 4,1
Avg Draft Position #50-60 12,3 excludes Paul Arizin
Avg Draft Position #60-70 12,3
Avg Draft Position #70-80 7,9
Avg Draft Position #80-90 9,57 excludes Connie Hawkins,Ben Wallace and Bill Sharman
Avg Draft Position #90-100 21,44 excludes Dave DeBusschere

The extremes are results of players like Gilmore at 117, Gervin at 40, Ginobili at 57, Laimbeer 65, Dandridge 45 these players stand out in terms of their draft position compared to the rest.

avg position drafts in
00s 2,86
90s 7,84 excludes Ben Wallace undrafted
80s 9,3
70s 16,27 excludes Moses Malone

Eliminating extremes here
avg position drafts in
90s minus Wallace and Ginobili 4,6
70s minus Gilmore and Gervin 10,05

Undrafted 8 Ben Wallace, Moses Malone, Connie Hawkins, DeBusschere, Jerry Lucas, Chamberlain, Sharman, Arizin most of them territorial picks
#1 picks - 19
#2 picks - 9
#3 picks - 11
#4 picks - 4
#5 picks - 9
#6 picks - 2
#7 picks - 4
#8 picks - 4
#9 picks - 3
#10 picks - 1
#11 picks - 1
#12 picks - 1
#13 picks - 3
#14 picks - 2
#15 picks - 1
#16 picks - 1
#17 picks - 1
#18 picks - 1
#19 picks - 1
#20 picks - 2
#23 picks - 1
#25 picks - 1
#27 picks - 1
#40 picks - 1
#45 picks - 1
#57 picks - 1
#65 picks - 1
#117 picks - 1

So 49 out of the 92 drafted top 100 players were top 3 picks. 75 of the 92 drafted top 100 players were top 9 picks.

Drafting higher is always better everyone should have known that before. With the restriction of highschool players not being able to enter the league anymore and foreign players being scouted much more extensively since Dirk Nowitzki there are even less surprises in the draft as evidenced by the average draft position of the great players in the last 10 years.

And that trend will not change with Kevin Durant #2, Blake Griffin #1, Derek Rose #1, Russell Westbrook #4, Kevin Love #5, John Wall #1, Kyrie Irving #1, Ricky Rubio #5 and other possible candidates eventually getting in that list.

When you look back at the last 25 years and the franchise players that have been in the league the only franchise players not drafted in the top 5 were Steve Nash #15, Kobe Bryant #13, Tracy McGrady #9, Dirk Nowitzki #9 and Brandon Roy #6.
I do not consider Manu Ginobili or Ben Wallace franchise players.

Brandon Roy misses the cut by 1 spot, McGrady and Kobe were highschoolers before the hype and teams were wary plus Kobe refused to work out for almost anyone and Dirk Nowitzki was a foreign prospect at a time where oversea scouting wasn't where it is now. Dirk Nowitzki was a pioneer pick in that regard pretty much.

You have to go all the way back to 1985 Karl Malone at #13 and John Stockton in 1984 at 16 to find franchise players that were drafted outside the top 10.

 

[JustWinBaby]

Nice work.

Whenever I mention that to be a legit contender you generally require a top 5 pick on your roster, others always mention a good player drafted late first round or 2nd round. Not many of those guys are on your list.

A few of the best teams in history: Where drafted - place in top 100

Lakers
Kareem - 1 - 3
Magic - 1 - 4
Worthy - 1 - 73

Celtics
Bird - 6 - 6
McHale - 3 - 40
Parish - 8 - 67

Bulls

Jordan - 3 - 1
Pippen - 5 - 25

Spurs

Duncan - 1 - 8
Robinson - 1 - 21

Lakers

Shaq - 1 - 7
Kobe - 13 - 10

Our group of Nash, Amare, Johnson and Marion really exceeded the norm. Only one was a top 5 talent coming into the league, Amare. If not for his mother, off court potential problems and no college he would have been drafted in the top 5.

It is very hard to win a Championship without a top 5 talent on your roster. Even then it surely is not assured.

I believe this further verifies the conversation on Gortat. It is not that he is not a good player, he is. However if the aspiration is to win a Championship he cannot be your best player. The probability of it happening is slim and none.

Somehow we must acquire more talent and if it is not top 5 talent or better we will not have a very good chance at winning a ring. If we just add mediocore free agents and draft picks in the 10 to 25 range all we will ever be is mediocore.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Just getting a top five pick is not enough. Many top five picks are busts.

 

[Neo]

Just getting a top five pick is not enough. Many top five picks are busts.

I agree. Every year there are five top five picks. Yet some teams end up picking in the top 5 multiple times without getting a title. For every Lebron there is a Marcus Fizer, Jeff Green, or (heaven forbid) Adam Morrison.

However, having a top 5 pick is not really a necessity for winning a title. The Celtics didn't rely on any top 5 picks for their most recent title. The Mavericks' only top 5 pick in recent years was Devin Harris and while he was the trade bait for Jason Kidd, he was not a part of the championship team. The Lakers won their 5 most recent championships with some top 5 picks, but they didn't draft those players.

 

[slinslin]

? Kevin Garnett was a top 5 pick. They traded a top 5 pick to get Ray Allen and Ray Allen was also a top 5 pick.

 

[Neo]

? Kevin Garnett was a top 5 pick. They traded a top 5 pick to get Ray Allen and Ray Allen was also a top 5 pick.

Sorry that I was unclear. My point was they didn't draft any top 5 picks that got them their most recent championship.

 

[JustWinBaby]

Dallas last year had:

Chandler - #2 pick
Kidd - #2 pick
Terry - 1oth pick
Marion - 9th pick
Dirk - 9th pick - would have been much higher if he were not so yong and from Europe when he was drafted.

They lost Chandler this off season and added

Odom - 4th pick
Carter 5th pick

They were loaded with talent last year, albeit getting long in the tooth and really have kept their talent level up with the additions of Odom and Carter. Not many are in love with VC but his talent level is unquestionable.

It apears that they plan on trying to acquire Williams and Howard this coming off season. That will keep their talent level up.

It really does not matter how you get it, the draft or trade, you must have it to compete for a title.

It really is not magic.

Until we acquire elite talent, not 15th picks and lower, we will struggle to win.


We don't have it and unfortunately it appears a long way off.

 

[Griffin]

Chandler - #2 pick
Kidd - #2 pick
Terry - 1oth pick
Marion - 9th pick
Dirk - 9th pick
Odom - 4th pick
Carter 5th pick

But there is a big difference between having a lottery talent-level player in his prime and near the end of his career. The Suns had Carter last year. Was that a good acquisition just because he was a high pick back in the day? Ultimately, the best piece from that trade ended up being a guy drafted 57th overall.

For comparison, the Suns currently have five players on their roster who were lottery picks: Grant Hill (3rd), Josh Childress (6th), Channing Frye (8th), Sebastian Telfair (13th) and Markieff Morris (13th). And four of those guys are still relatively young. But that doesn't mean the Suns have lottery-level talent.

Yes, the most talented players are usually drafted high so any title contender will have those on their roster. But that doesn't mean that stocking up on players that were drafted high means that your team is talented. Dallas would have done just as well with Rondo (21st pick) as Kidd (2nd pick) last year. The problem with the Suns is that they haven't had many high picks and when they do acquire a player drafted in the lottery he usually is someone who hasn't lived up to his potential and thus came relatively cheap (i.e. Childress, Frye, Telfair).

It really does not matter how you get it, the draft or trade, you must have it to compete for a title.

But it does matter. To get it via draft, you almost certainly have to have multiple really bad seasons like the Thunder. Otherwise, you have to draft well in late first round and second round to get some assets that you can later possibly convert into lottery-level talent. You also need money to sign those players when they become free agents and be willing to take on big contracts. Remember the Suns had the option to pick up Chandler virtually for nothing a few years ago but they declined because of his contract.

 

[Gaddabout]

Well, this year's draft is looking pretty good, so somebody's going to score a + big man in the Top 10. Probably multiple teams. Worst case scenario is the Suns land a premium contributor, if not an elite player, if they don't do something completely stupid.

Fingers crossed.