Seven-week losing streak broken

elindholm

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No way to know if this bounce will stick, of course, but it's nice to finally be in the green for a few days.

Nice timing on GOOG, Folster! I'm on the road without access to my spreadsheet, so I don't know what my big winners for the week are, but ORA (Ormat, geothermal plant construction) is one that I know has been on a tear.
 

dscher

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hurry buy some champagne before the knives start falling again!
These have been some face rippers to the upside. In a downtrend, those aren't healthy.. but, we'll have to see more healthy price action moving forward. Bull markets like boring days, unfortunately for the bulls. Lol. The paradox of the markets. These exciting big move days are fun...but they definitely favor the bears.
 

Folster

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No way to know if this bounce will stick, of course, but it's nice to finally be in the green for a few days.

Nice timing on GOOG, Folster! I'm on the road without access to my spreadsheet, so I don't know what my big winners for the week are, but ORA (Ormat, geothermal plant construction) is one that I know has been on a tear.

Sometimes we get lucky. We'll see if it holds.
 

Folster

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Ultimately I still think we are going to test the lows in June again with new CPI numbers and QT from a promised 50 bp rate hike and the beginning of the balance sheet run off. That is going to suck even more liquidity out of the markets. The housing market is starting to turn now too. We haven't seen any high profile BKs yet and BTC is still hanging around 30K. I don't think the flush is quite finished, but maybe we avoid a complete wipe-out. Who knows.

I still get a sense that some investors haven't completely realized how different the near term and recovery may be without an accommodating fed.
 

dscher

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Ultimately I still think we are going to test the lows in June again with new CPI numbers and QT from a promised 50 bp rate hike and the beginning of the balance sheet run off. That is going to suck even more liquidity out of the markets. The housing market is starting to turn now too. We haven't seen any high profile BKs yet and BTC is still hanging around 30K. I don't think the flush is quite finished, but maybe we avoid a complete wipe-out. Who knows.

I still get a sense that some investors haven't completely realized how different the near term and recovery may be without an accommodating fed.
Could quite possibly be the best "Sell in May and go away!" opportunity in the past few decades...
 

Folster

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Could quite possibly be the best "Sell in May and go away!" opportunity in the past few decades...

If we do continue to rally next week I may trim one or two of my lowest conviction positions and use that cash to find a better play.
 

BigRedRage

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Ultimately I still think we are going to test the lows in June again with new CPI numbers and QT from a promised 50 bp rate hike and the beginning of the balance sheet run off. That is going to suck even more liquidity out of the markets. The housing market is starting to turn now too. We haven't seen any high profile BKs yet and BTC is still hanging around 30K. I don't think the flush is quite finished, but maybe we avoid a complete wipe-out. Who knows.

I still get a sense that some investors haven't completely realized how different the near term and recovery may be without an accommodating fed.
This is what has me totally hesitant. It is obvious that rate hikes spook the hell out of the market.
 

Devilmaycare

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If we do continue to rally next week I may trim one or two of my lowest conviction positions and use that cash to find a better play.
I might do the same. I trimmed a few last week and it ended up being a good move. Even with today's rally they're only at what I sold them for.

My big possible trim right now is TSLA. I'm so conflicted on which way it's going. I can really see it jumping 300 points in either direction. What I might do is see how it starts off the week. As long as it's green I'll hold. But if we start another red run it's probably gone and then maybe buy back in.
 

Russ Smith

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Ultimately I still think we are going to test the lows in June again with new CPI numbers and QT from a promised 50 bp rate hike and the beginning of the balance sheet run off. That is going to suck even more liquidity out of the markets. The housing market is starting to turn now too. We haven't seen any high profile BKs yet and BTC is still hanging around 30K. I don't think the flush is quite finished, but maybe we avoid a complete wipe-out. Who knows.

I still get a sense that some investors haven't completely realized how different the near term and recovery may be without an accommodating fed.


Too early to say but the numbers so far seem to be looking a bit better. CPI comes out June 10th and what i read on Thursday when they had some numbers out was they're expected to revise the April numbers down from 8.3 when they release the May numbers. Of course at this time last month everyone thought April CPI would be better than it was. I guess PCE was good on Friday too, or better than it had been.

Gas is going up, groceries still high definitely if CPI is better it won't be a huge improvement.

I was surprised we were up Friday they said the indication is the next rate hike could be bigger than expected, from what I read later in the day the reason that didn't spook the markets is they took it as the fed thinks things are stable enough they can handle a bigger rate hike. And that was after 2 days earlier it was said the odds of bigger than .5 was only 5 percent.
 
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elindholm

elindholm

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Rate hikes are already priced in, I think. The big variables are inflation and Ukraine.
 

Folster

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Rate hikes are already priced in, I think. The big variables are inflation and Ukraine.

Yeah but the rate hikes and inflation are related as you know, and there is concern whether the fed is being aggressive enough/too aggressive.
 

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