QB Question Has Been the Subject of Scout Talk All Day

Harry

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Since I consider rating QBs as one of my weakest areas (not alone in that) I thought I’d throw this out to the board. Is this group of QBs vastly overrated? The primary supporting theory is there are an unusual number of teams lacking competitive QBs. The other side maintains the testing from the Combine and Pro Days says this is a superior group; unusually deep. My theory, which you’ve heard before, is the Portal has allowed more elite players to develop and the QBs have benefited from better surrounding casts. The QBs are that good.
 

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IMHO how one has them rated directly relies upon one's offensive philosophy.

Older/more traditional scouts or coaches likely rate Drake and JJ higher

Whereas those who lean towards what they consider a more "modern" game will prefer Caleb or Daniels.

I'm mixed. I like a mobile QB that stays behind the Los and looks for the completion.

The physical ability is there on all of them. But the success or failure of an NFL qb has ever been between his ears and that is very hard to anticipate
 

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Deeper class but I dunno about elite prospects. I think the QBs in this class will be longer-lived than most, but more Chase Daniel types.

The portal will help QBs come out more polished with more reps, but with less upside also.
 

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Since I consider rating QBs as one of my weakest areas (not alone in that) I thought I’d throw this out to the board. Is this group of QBs vastly overrated? The primary supporting theory is there are an unusual number of teams lacking competitive QBs. The other side maintains the testing from the Combine and Pro Days says this is a superior group; unusually deep. My theory, which you’ve heard before, is the Portal has allowed more elite players to develop and the QBs have benefited from better surrounding casts. The QBs are that good.
My largely uneducated opinion is yes. I don’t think there have ever been 5 or 6 worthy first round qbs in any draft. It reeks of desperation.
 

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@Harry I think that both Williams and Maye were unusually good as young players. That often portends NFL success because it demonstrates that they can make the jump in talent rather quickly.

Williams definitely benefited from the portal. USC brought in talent via the portal both seasons he was there. Maye didn't have nearly the talent that Williams did. Williams himself transferred but I think he would have had the same kind of success at OU.

Daniels arguably benefitted the most, leaving an ASU program that wasn't talent rich for an LSU program that was stocked with elite talent.

I think as far as the talent goes, you don't find a Williams or a Maye every draft. Both can make NFL throws and both understand how to move in the pocket to buy extra time.

Daniels threw a very limited route tree, lots of vertical routes. Not exactly an NFL offense.

The guy who is really benefitting from the NFL QB talent crunch is McCarthy. I think in most years, he's solidly a 2nd round pick. Teams like him because of intangibles, not because of his film. He played in a highly conservative NFL-style offense. I think he's going to struggle if he goes high, but will ultimately have a really long career as a backup QB.
 

RON_IN_OC

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Deeper class but I dunno about elite prospects. I think the QBs in this class will be longer-lived than most, but more Chase Daniel types.

The portal will help QBs come out more polished with more reps, but with less upside also.
100% agree and was going to post similar. I see a lot of Baker Mayfields in this draft (career wise). Good, but next level great. Can provide stability at the QB spot for several years, but if things go south with their team (coach/GM/ownership change) the team wouldn't hesitate to upgrade for a rebuild.
 

kerouac9

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Daniels threw a very limited route tree, lots of vertical routes. Not exactly an NFL offense.

Daniels reminds me a lot of Marcus Mariota.

The guy who is really benefitting from the NFL QB talent crunch is McCarthy. I think in most years, he's solidly a 2nd round pick.

I think he's still solidly a 2nd round pick. The Will Levis energy around him is so strong.
 

Krangodnzr

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Daniels reminds me a lot of Marcus Mariota.
I can see it. My issue with Daniels was that he was often the guy holding ASU back from winning during his sophomore and junior years. He didn't really get better from year one to year three.

Daniels wasn't really even better than a day three picks until this year, his FIFTH season. That's worrisome and I wouldn't bet on him.
I think he's still solidly a 2nd round pick. The Will Levis energy around him is so strong.
I've tried to understand the hype, but the more I've watched, the less I like McCarthy.
 

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Since I consider rating QBs as one of my weakest areas (not alone in that) I thought I’d throw this out to the board. Is this group of QBs vastly overrated? The primary supporting theory is there are an unusual number of teams lacking competitive QBs. The other side maintains the testing from the Combine and Pro Days says this is a superior group; unusually deep. My theory, which you’ve heard before, is the Portal has allowed more elite players to develop and the QBs have benefited from better surrounding casts. The QBs are that good.
Harry, I’m not even a novice on the subject and more or less “UN”educated on any prospect. I don’t have the quote but one true professional expert a few years ago said to draft a QB every year until you find your guy.
 

RON_IN_OC

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Harry, I’m not even a novice on the subject and more or less “UN”educated on any prospect. I don’t have the quote but one true professional expert a few years ago said to draft a QB every year until you find your guy.
I think that was someone like Bill Polian who said that was always his philosophy. Could he a different guy, but it was one of the old timers.
 

kerouac9

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What is "the Portal " ?
It's the transfer portal.

A until the past few years, if a college athlete wanted to leave their school, they had to sit out an entire year with their new program, and lose a year of eligibility. In 2018 -- and really gaining momentum in 2021 -- student-athletes could move between programs without sitting a full year.

This (and Name, Image, and Likeness licensing, also called NIL) has resulted in a fundamental shift in the power balance in football programs toward talent and away from coaches/programs. It's not infrequent to see top prospects change schools if they can't move up the depth chart or there's a change in the coaching staff.

For example, it used to be common for Nick Saban to immediately bench and denigrate his recruits, and have them compete for their scholarship every year. Today, if a college player doesn't like their situation, they can enter the transfer portal and find a new program.

You'll often hear teams recommend their players enter the transfer portal also. Coach Deion Sanders famously recommended almost the entire 2022 Colorado team transfer out. The QB for Ohio State was encouraged to leave. Five of the Ringer's Top seven QB prospects passed through the portal at one time or another: Caleb Williams (OU -> USC), Jayden Daniels (ASU -> LSU), Michael Penix Jr (Indiana -> Washington), Bo Nix (Auburn -> Oregon), and Spencer Rattler (OU -> The Other USC).
 

Chopper0080

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It's the transfer portal.

A until the past few years, if a college athlete wanted to leave their school, they had to sit out an entire year with their new program, and lose a year of eligibility. In 2018 -- and really gaining momentum in 2021 -- student-athletes could move between programs without sitting a full year.

This (and Name, Image, and Likeness licensing, also called NIL) has resulted in a fundamental shift in the power balance in football programs toward talent and away from coaches/programs. It's not infrequent to see top prospects change schools if they can't move up the depth chart or there's a change in the coaching staff.

For example, it used to be common for Nick Saban to immediately bench and denigrate his recruits, and have them compete for their scholarship every year. Today, if a college player doesn't like their situation, they can enter the transfer portal and find a new program.

You'll often hear teams recommend their players enter the transfer portal also. Coach Deion Sanders famously recommended almost the entire 2022 Colorado team transfer out. The QB for Ohio State was encouraged to leave. Five of the Ringer's Top seven QB prospects passed through the portal at one time or another: Caleb Williams (OU -> USC), Jayden Daniels (ASU -> LSU), Michael Penix Jr (Indiana -> Washington), Bo Nix (Auburn -> Oregon), and Spencer Rattler (OU -> The Other USC).
Maye I highlight one name that isn't on this list despite losing his OC prior to this past season.
 

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I have to admit, Penix intrigues me despite the fact that he's a lefty. Nix and McCarthy kind of seem like they bust written all over them. To me Caleb Williams will be the best as he reminds me the most of Josh Allen. I watched a couple USC games and he has an absolute rifle arm. He seems like that dual threat. Finally, the Bears will have a quarterback. Maye has an arm too and believe Washington will take him and be good for years to come. Daniels also can absolutely ball if he can hold up in the NFL and I believe he'll be a Patriot. He has the height and can probably put on some muscle and not lose hardly if any speed.
 
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kerouac9

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I have to admit, Penix intrigues me despite the fact that he's a lefty. Nix and McCarthy kind of seem like they bust written all over them. To me Caleb Williams will be the best as he reminds me the most of Josh Allen. I watched a couple USC games and he has an absolute rifle arm. He seems like that dual threat. Finally, the Bears will have a quarterback. Maye has an arm too and believe Washington will take him and be good for years to come. Daniels also can absolutely ball if he can hold up in the NFL and I believe he'll be a Patriot. He has the height and can probably put on some muscle and not lose hardly if any speed.
I don't think Nix or McCarthy are going to be drafted high enough to have a "bust" label attached to them.

Williams no doubt has all the physical tools that you want. What could hold him back is the situation and discovering how he deals with adversity. That's something we won't know from the outside.
 

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I don't think Nix or McCarthy are going to be drafted high enough to have a "bust" label attached to them.

Williams no doubt has all the physical tools that you want. What could hold him back is the situation and discovering how he deals with adversity. That's something we won't know from the outside.
Josh Allen was almost eerily similar. So many liked him for probably all the wrong reasons, but he turned into a beast in the pros despite what happened this last season. He'll eventually win a SB because he's Superman. Williams reminds me of him. His arm strength is killer. Good point on McCarthy; if he slips to round 2, it wouldn't surprise me at all. If Nix slips to round 2 or 3 it won't surprise me either.
 

kerouac9

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Josh Allen was almost eerily similar. So many liked him for probably all the wrong reasons, but he turned into a beast in the pros despite what happened this last season. He'll eventually win a SB because he's Superman. Williams reminds me of him. His arm strength is killer. Good point on McCarthy; if he slips to round 2, it wouldn't surprise me at all. If Nix slips to round 2 or 3 it won't surprise me either.
Josh Allen dealt with plenty of adversity in college and being drafted by the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen is also 6'5", 237. Caleb Williams is four inches shorter and 20 lbs lighter. I don't get the comparison at all.
 

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Josh Allen dealt with plenty of adversity in college and being drafted by the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen is also 6'5", 237. Caleb Williams is four inches shorter and 20 lbs lighter. I don't get the comparison at all.
Good point on size but the arm talent is there. Maye and Daniels also are intriguing with their arms and athleticism. I suppose I need to research more; just a gut feeling. Of course I've been wrong before but I saw something in Williams.
 

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Since I consider rating QBs as one of my weakest areas (not alone in that) I thought I’d throw this out to the board. Is this group of QBs vastly overrated? The primary supporting theory is there are an unusual number of teams lacking competitive QBs. The other side maintains the testing from the Combine and Pro Days says this is a superior group; unusually deep. My theory, which you’ve heard before, is the Portal has allowed more elite players to develop and the QBs have benefited from better surrounding casts. The QBs are that good.

Who knows?

Wasn't the Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Jackson class supposed to be great?

Too many variables, including who drafts them.
 
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Chris_Sanders

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Josh Allen dealt with plenty of adversity in college and being drafted by the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen is also 6'5", 237. Caleb Williams is four inches shorter and 20 lbs lighter. I don't get the comparison at all.

Caleb Williams is basically slower Kyler Murray with an entirely different set of personality quirks.
 
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