Harry
ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
For better or worse today’s sports scene is dominate by analytics. Companies you never heard of are shaping the games you love. Pro Football Focus, despite the concerns of others and myself, routinely is used to evaluate the performance of players. These statistics are routinely used in salary negotiations even more than in game planning.
Another of these companies is TruMedia. This week The Athletic Internet site has been given access to TruMedia’s Pressure Index. Again I have some reservations about their data, but on the whole it likely has a reasonable degree of accuracy with some exceptions. the
My theory of the Cardinals’ off-season personnel changes was that they were willing to accept a mediocre secondary by compensating with passer pressure. Despite their excellent record, the index says the Cards have not been an above average team in terms of passer pressure. Surprisingly to me the Cards rank 21st. The Cards do rank 6th in sacks, but only 23rd in QB hurries according to Pro Football Reference. That same publication ranks the Cards 25th in pressures. Like PFF these sites all are based on subjective evaluation. It is fair, I think, to say the Cards haven’t been a dominant team pressure-wise.
There are mseveral reasons for this. Micah Parsons is TM’s top ranked rusher. His overall rate is 21.1%. The Cards top ranked player is JJ Watt at 13.0 with Golden coming in as 12.9%. This makes Watt the 23rd ranked rusher with Golden at 29. The primary reason the Cards rank so poorly is the performance of Chandler Jones. Jones is rated 9.9%. This places him below Phillips, Hicks, Simmons and even Gardeck. Keep in mind this is based on their number of plays, not their total number of pressures, but rather their percentage.
I’d like to credit the board poster but the board search didn’t help me. Someone asked if Jones was done. Certainly these metrics make that a valid concern. You would have to think this would greatly impact Jones’ free agent payday. After game one many jumped up to say sign him. Keim kept his cool and Jones’ value has steadily declined. Ironically the ancient Von Miller may prove to be the best free agent rusher available. TM still has him ranked 9th and Miller is also sound against the run.
So what does this mean? I’ve been posting the Cards need to blitz more often. A Jones revival would help or if Gardeck would show some of the explosiveness he flashed last season. Phillips is also capable of doing more inside. Whatever the solution, the Cards need more passer pressure to continue winning.
If you’re thinking draft, Thibodeaux is the top guy on most boards but will be long gone before the Cards select. Most of the highly rated players are in the huge category, which is now common. Both Golden & Jones weigh in at over 250. I like slightly, lighter more agile players, but they’re a vanishing breed. The big guys start with Hutchinson from Michigan who had 3 big sacks against OSU, but the game was lost when the OSU QB just floated the ball above Hutchinson’s attempt to high point the ball, limited agility. Other names you’ll hear are Karlaftis, Gunter, Enagbare, Malone, Jackson, Smith and Anderson. This could be an excellent draft for edge rushers. So if the Cards don’t bring Jones back or find an affordable free agent expect an edge to be taken in the first 2 rounds. Still you can get lucky late in the draft. Denver got Jonathon Cooper at 239. He’s still raw, but he’s on the upswing.
In the meantime, I’m hoping for a steady diet of blitzes.
Another of these companies is TruMedia. This week The Athletic Internet site has been given access to TruMedia’s Pressure Index. Again I have some reservations about their data, but on the whole it likely has a reasonable degree of accuracy with some exceptions. the
My theory of the Cardinals’ off-season personnel changes was that they were willing to accept a mediocre secondary by compensating with passer pressure. Despite their excellent record, the index says the Cards have not been an above average team in terms of passer pressure. Surprisingly to me the Cards rank 21st. The Cards do rank 6th in sacks, but only 23rd in QB hurries according to Pro Football Reference. That same publication ranks the Cards 25th in pressures. Like PFF these sites all are based on subjective evaluation. It is fair, I think, to say the Cards haven’t been a dominant team pressure-wise.
There are mseveral reasons for this. Micah Parsons is TM’s top ranked rusher. His overall rate is 21.1%. The Cards top ranked player is JJ Watt at 13.0 with Golden coming in as 12.9%. This makes Watt the 23rd ranked rusher with Golden at 29. The primary reason the Cards rank so poorly is the performance of Chandler Jones. Jones is rated 9.9%. This places him below Phillips, Hicks, Simmons and even Gardeck. Keep in mind this is based on their number of plays, not their total number of pressures, but rather their percentage.
I’d like to credit the board poster but the board search didn’t help me. Someone asked if Jones was done. Certainly these metrics make that a valid concern. You would have to think this would greatly impact Jones’ free agent payday. After game one many jumped up to say sign him. Keim kept his cool and Jones’ value has steadily declined. Ironically the ancient Von Miller may prove to be the best free agent rusher available. TM still has him ranked 9th and Miller is also sound against the run.
So what does this mean? I’ve been posting the Cards need to blitz more often. A Jones revival would help or if Gardeck would show some of the explosiveness he flashed last season. Phillips is also capable of doing more inside. Whatever the solution, the Cards need more passer pressure to continue winning.
If you’re thinking draft, Thibodeaux is the top guy on most boards but will be long gone before the Cards select. Most of the highly rated players are in the huge category, which is now common. Both Golden & Jones weigh in at over 250. I like slightly, lighter more agile players, but they’re a vanishing breed. The big guys start with Hutchinson from Michigan who had 3 big sacks against OSU, but the game was lost when the OSU QB just floated the ball above Hutchinson’s attempt to high point the ball, limited agility. Other names you’ll hear are Karlaftis, Gunter, Enagbare, Malone, Jackson, Smith and Anderson. This could be an excellent draft for edge rushers. So if the Cards don’t bring Jones back or find an affordable free agent expect an edge to be taken in the first 2 rounds. Still you can get lucky late in the draft. Denver got Jonathon Cooper at 239. He’s still raw, but he’s on the upswing.
In the meantime, I’m hoping for a steady diet of blitzes.
