Plus Minus Since Ariza / Oubre trade

[Chris_Sanders]

Okay so I ran all the box scores since the Ariza / Oubre trade.

It will surprise no one that our worst + / - is Booker, Ayton, and Warren. Its really bad

Also Holmes and Jackson are the regular contibutors with the best + / -

Player Sum +/-
Daniels 31
Okobo 16
Holmes 7
Moreland 3
Acy -3
Jackson -5
Bender -5
Bridges -26
Oubre -30
Crawford -45
Melton -53
Warren -62
Ayton -63
Booker -69

But they (Booker, Ayton, and Warren) play the most minutes so that made me think to come up with the +/- by minutes played equation. This gives a real indicator of whom is maximizing their minutes.

Player Min to +/-
Daniels 0.620
Moreland 0.600
Okobo 0.421
Holmes 0.043
Jackson -0.019
Bridges -0.079
Oubre -0.111
Warren -0.167
Ayton -0.173
Booker -0.198
Melton -0.226
Crawford -0.263
Acy -0.375
Bender -0.417

If you take out the 3 spot minute players your best 3 are Holmes, Jackson, and Bridges.

This exactly meshes with my idea of whom the best defenders are on the team.

The Melton / Crawford hole just shows what a disadvantage we are at when those two guys are getting all of those PG minutes.

Right now the chatter about Booker's performance looks valid. Whether it's continued injuries or just not being able to be the primary ball handler he is hurting the team.

Ayton isn't making enough of an impact on defense

And Warren....well he has two guys playing the same position and playing better above him.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I think this may show more about how poorly the starting lineup plays together than it does individual players. Outside of Bridges the rest of the starters are all -.167 or worse, but that might also have to do with the fact that the starters are playing more minutes against other starters. They also face the other starters in the first quarter while the game is still competitive. The bench on the other hand comes in after we are already well behind and with their high intensity and the other team taking their foot off the peddle a little they tend to make runs to get back into the game.

 

[elindholm]

Thanks for those numbers, Chris. I'm surprised that Jackson fares as well as he does. I can tell that he makes a positive difference defensively, but offensively his decision-making is still terrible, and he has one of the highest turnover rates in the league (4th among all players, last I checked). Once in a while, he'll make a bunch of shots, like he did last night, but I still feel that he's a liability overall. Maybe he's less of a liability than others on the roster, though, so it's a case of pick your poison.

Booker is struggling, no question about it. Of course, some posters will remember that many of us last summer were against the idea of Booker being the primary creator, and expressed our angst when it became clear that the Suns were headed that direction. As usual, we were told that everything would be fine, that the Suns had more moves planned, and that it wouldn't be that big a deal even if Booker were forced into a role that plays away from his strengths and into his weaknesses. Instead, we have a 22-year-old, who just signed a maximum extension, regressing before our eyes. Don't think he doesn't know it.

 

[Suns_fan69]

I'm honestly surprised to see Melton where he is, I always thought he was above average defensively (although admittedly below average offensively).

The starting lineup has too many minus defenders in it. Having one breakdown with good team defenders waiting to help isn't the end of the world. Best way to resolve this is probably to move TJ back to the bench. Not sure who would be the best replacement though. Oubre? Jackson? Holmes?

 

[Chaplin]

Booker is struggling, no question about it. Of course, some posters will remember that many of us last summer were against the idea of Booker being the primary creator, and expressed our angst when it became clear that the Suns were headed that direction. As usual, we were told that everything would be fine, that the Suns had more moves planned, and that it wouldn't be that big a deal even if Booker were forced into a role that plays away from his strengths and into his weaknesses. Instead, we have a 22-year-old, who just signed a maximum extension, regressing before our eyes. Don't think he doesn't know it.

Again with this? Who said we would be "fine" with Booker as the Point Guard? Nobody has said we'd be fine with him as a point guard. It was a necessity that he become that, and he hasn't been awful at it, but I would guess 100% of this board would still advocate to get a point guard so Booker doesn't have to play it. And he's not regressing. Geez.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I'm honestly surprised to see Melton where he is, I always thought he was above average defensively (although admittedly below average offensively).

The starting lineup has too many minus defenders in it. Having one breakdown with good team defenders waiting to help isn't the end of the world. Best way to resolve this is probably to move TJ back to the bench. Not sure who would be the best replacement though. Oubre? Jackson? Holmes?

I would start with Oubre because Jackson is like the back up facilitator on the second unit and I think he provides all the scoring punch of Warren without the negative defense.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Thanks for those numbers, Chris. I'm surprised that Jackson fares as well as he does. I can tell that he makes a positive difference defensively, but offensively his decision-making is still terrible, and he has one of the highest turnover rates in the league (4th among all players, last I checked). Once in a while, he'll make a bunch of shots, like he did last night, but I still feel that he's a liability overall. Maybe he's less of a liability than others on the roster, though, so it's a case of pick your poison.

Booker is struggling, no question about it. Of course, some posters will remember that many of us last summer were against the idea of Booker being the primary creator, and expressed our angst when it became clear that the Suns were headed that direction. As usual, we were told that everything would be fine, that the Suns had more moves planned, and that it wouldn't be that big a deal even if Booker were forced into a role that plays away from his strengths and into his weaknesses. Instead, we have a 22-year-old, who just signed a maximum extension, regressing before our eyes. Don't think he doesn't know it.

I definitely can see the frustrations with Jackson offensively.

This does back up his pre draft quality of hustle. Just right now it is out of control hustle.

I am going to keep this document running so we can see improvement or lack there of over time

 

[BC867]

Again with this? Who said we would be "fine" with Booker as the Point Guard? Nobody has said we'd be fine with him as a point guard. It was a necessity that he become that, and he hasn't been awful at it, but I would guess 100% of this board would still advocate to get a point guard so Booker doesn't have to play it. And he's not regressing. Geez.

The necessity was getting a Point Guard, but the actually was taking the cheap way out and putting it on Booker's shoulders while remaining our top scorer.

Book's performance in the dual role is regressing as is his health. Even if he miraculously became a smooth Point Guard, playing, what, 3/4 of the time has made him a 75% player when the team needs him 100% of the time.

I've been criticized for posting this before, but how many games has he missed so far this season and how many more has he been nowhere near 100%? Double someone's workload long term and it is going to take its toll -- physically and emotionally. The results speak for themselves. It is not a coincidence. Back spasms at his age. Was he damaged goods when we drafter him or has management damaged him with their unskilled leadership? I believe the latter.

 

[Chaplin]

The necessity was getting a Point Guard, but the actually was taking the cheap way out and putting it on Booker's shoulders while remaining our top scorer.

Book's performance in the dual role is regressing as is his health. Even if he miraculously became a smooth Point Guard, playing, what, 3/4 of the time has made him a 75% player when the team needs him 100% of the time.

I've been criticized for posting this before, but how many games has he missed so far this season and how many more has he been nowhere near 100%? Double someone's workload long term and it is going to take its toll -- physically and emotionally. The results speak for themselves. It is not a coincidence. Back spasms at his age. Was he damaged goods when we drafter him or has management damaged him with their unskilled leadership? I believe the latter.

Injury and playing with injury is a valid, but separate, conversation. He is playing at an all-star level. That's a statistical fact. Can he be better? Certainly. He's not regressing, unless you are only looking at ONE stat, like 3pt %. He hasn't been as good this year, but he is significantly improved in other areas, like assists and even (if only marginally) defensively. You can't pick and choose one or two declining stats while ignoring the good ones and suddenly apply the regressing moniker on him, or even worse, start saying he isn't even our best player, which is flat out FALSE.

 

[95pro]

Bookers assists are up but so are turnovers. Thanks for the work Chris.

 

[Chaplin]

Bookers assists are up but so are turnovers. Thanks for the work Chris.

Which would be normal for any player, not just Booker. And especially with the supporting cast he has.

 

[Suns_fan69]

I would start with Oubre because Jackson is like the back up facilitator on the second unit and I think he provides all the scoring punch of Warren without the negative defense.

I would lean Oubre as well as he looks a bit bigger and better suited to go against 4s than JJ. I'd be very interested to see a Holmes/Ayton pairing to start the game though, he's the best team defender we have. It'll never happen, the offense would be a bit of a mess, but I'm really curious to see how they'd do on the floor together.

 

[Milgod]

I think this may show more about how poorly the starting lineup plays together than it does individual players. Outside of Bridges the rest of the starters are all -.167 or worse, but that might also have to do with the fact that the starters are playing more minutes against other starters. They also face the other starters in the first quarter while the game is still competitive. The bench on the other hand comes in after we are already well behind and with their high intensity and the other team taking their foot off the peddle a little they tend to make runs to get back into the game.

It's a nice bit of data and all, but you're right about starters v starters. It's mental to not pay attention to that.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

It's a nice bit of data and all, but you're right about starters v starters. It's mental to not pay attention to that.

You can't really weight starter versus starter, especially after about 10 minutes into the game lineups are fluctuating constantly. To do it accurately you would need to track all lineups and subs, which is way more than I have time during lunch for.

Making it a per minute number seemed the fairest.

 

[Hoop Head]

I'm honestly surprised to see Melton where he is, I always thought he was above average defensively (although admittedly below average offensively).

The starting lineup has too many minus defenders in it. Having one breakdown with good team defenders waiting to help isn't the end of the world. Best way to resolve this is probably to move TJ back to the bench. Not sure who would be the best replacement though. Oubre? Jackson? Holmes?

I could be wrong but I think one thing that hurts Melton's +/- is how much of a negative he is on offense. So he may be on the floor when we're getting back in a game or when it's close but when we're trying to pull away he gets subbed out for someone that provides more offense. He doesn't distribute well and he's a pretty bad shooter so the only real skill that is earning him minutes is his defense and he's pesky enough that he manages to get a number of steals and set the tone defensively but he's not out there to benefit from runs that get going if there is a break in action. I don't have anything to back that up but based on his minutes per game and how he's usually not on the floor in the 4th except for a key defensive possession or two he doesn't get to be on the positive end of the +/- tracking that often. He does play most of his minutes in the 1st quarter and we all see what happens then, the Suns get down by 15-20.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I could be wrong but I think one thing that hurts Melton's +/- is how much of a negative he is on offense. So he may be on the floor when we're getting back in a game or when it's close but when we're trying to pull away he gets subbed out for someone that provides more offense. He doesn't distribute well and he's a pretty bad shooter so the only real skill that is earning him minutes is his defense and he's pesky enough that he manages to get a number of steals and set the tone defensively but he's not out there to benefit from runs that get going if there is a break in action. I don't have anything to back that up but based on his minutes per game and how he's usually not on the floor in the 4th except for a key defensive possession or two he doesn't get to be on the positive end of the +/- tracking that often. He does play most of his minutes in the 1st quarter and we all see what happens then, the Suns get down by 15-20.

Good analysis.

 

[1tinsoldier]

the Suns beat Denver, a top team in the league, without Booker and with Warren having a bad night. it's another indication that the strength of the Suns defensive players together is more effective than their best offensive parts together

unfortunately, the trio of Booker, Ayton, and TJ leaves room for only 2 of their best defenders on the floor.

also, i believe the Booker point guard experiment and 1on1 Booker Ball is a loser.
in the Denver game the ball moved nicely and everyone got involved

granted, the prior game was one of the low points of the year, and we really needed Booker's offense. the point is, the Suns need to prioritize their defensive lineups and re-define Booker's role. he's not ready to lead on the floor and when he does it's not most effective

there's a group mind-set and chemistry when their best defenders are on the floor.
Booker, Ayton, and TJ need to follow that flow and fit in, rather than the reverse!

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Updated Numbers

Just +/-

Player Sum +/-
Daniels 40
Okobo 21
Acy 8
Moreland 3
Bender -5
Holmes -6
Jackson -20
Bridges -25
Oubre -27
Crawford -45
Ayton -51
Melton -59
Booker -69
Warren -74

Player Minutes to +/-

Moreland 0.600
Daniels 0.526
Acy 0.320
Okobo 0.273
Holmes -0.029
Jackson -0.062
Bridges -0.067
Oubre -0.086
Ayton -0.123
Warren -0.166
Booker -0.198
Melton -0.202
Crawford -0.263
Bender -0.417


Analysis: Nothing new. Daniels and Okobo continue to make the most out of their limited minutes. Jackson, Bridges, and Oubre continue to play well despite different lineups.

Warren has had 2 games with a positive + / - since the Ariza trade.

Warren for a PG is the move that needs to be made.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

the Suns beat Denver, a top team in the league, without Booker and with Warren having a bad night. it's another indication that the strength of the Suns defensive players together is more effective than their best offensive parts together

unfortunately, the trio of Booker, Ayton, and TJ leaves room for only 2 of their best defenders on the floor.

also, i believe the Booker point guard experiment and 1on1 Booker Ball is a loser.
in the Denver game the ball moved nicely and everyone got involved

granted, the prior game was one of the low points of the year, and we really needed Booker's offense. the point is, the Suns need to prioritize their defensive lineups and re-define Booker's role. he's not ready to lead on the floor and when he does it's not most effective

there's a group mind-set and chemistry when their best defenders are on the floor.
Booker, Ayton, and TJ need to follow that flow and fit in, rather than the reverse!

Ayton's +/- numbers show that some nights he is locked in. He has been + on 6 out of 13 games. Just his bad games are really bad.

Booker and Warren are the defensive issues. We aren't moving on from Booker and we shouldn't have to. With the right lineup where he can just be an offensive madman he is fine.

 

[1tinsoldier]

the conundrum is Booker, Ayton, and TJ together
it's nice to have TJ as the offensive weapon with at least 3 of our better defenders
when he plays with them his own defense seems to be better

but he will not be happy coming off our bench. he should be a starter, just not here

if we can get his value back in a point i think we have to do it but i'm not happy with any of the candidates
because if we're not replacing him with a good defender to play alongside Booker and Ayton, it defeats the purpose
and if he's not a better than average passer we're not making full use of Ayton

 

[1tinsoldier]

myself and others have analyzed Ayton's defensive problems in detail
but i've only heard complaints about Booker's defense without any details
i'll admit i don't pay much attention to what he's doing on defense and i suppose it's because he's not making things happen and usually not defending the offensive stars on other teams

i do see players get around him and he's not the type to be aggressive about blocks and steals

but why, specifically, is he billed as the worst defender of our active players?

his legs work real well on offense when he wants to get around someone. could he be coached into being a better defender?

 

[Chris_Sanders]

myself and others have analyzed Ayton's defensive problems in detail
but i've only heard complaints about Booker's defense without any details
i'll admit i don't pay much attention to what he's doing on defense and i suppose it's because he's not making things happen and usually not defending the offensive stars on other teams

i do see players get around him and he's not the type to be aggressive about blocks and steals

but why, specifically, is he billed as the worst defender of our active players?

his legs work real well on offense when he wants to get around someone. could he be coached into being a better defender?

Basketball reference has a stat called defensive box +/-

It's what I generally use. Here is the definition

BPM relies on a player's box score information and the team's overall performance to estimate a player's performance relative to league average. BPM is a per-100-possession stat, the same scale as Adjusted Plus/Minus: 0.0 is league average, +5 means the player is 5 points better than an average player over 100 possessions (which is about All-NBA level), -2 is replacement level, and -5 is really bad.

Booker is having a career worst -2.8 at BPM. His offensive numbers are good enough though that he is not a net negative

I am pretty sure that -2.8 is the worst defensively on the team.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Nope I was wrong. Jamal Crawford is a -4 on offense and defense.

It completely shows why he leads in minus per minute after Bender

 

[Proximo]

After thinking more about it, I am beginning to think those calling for trading TJ may be right. I doubt he will ever be good enough defensively or rebounding wise to play the power forward position. If he is unwilling to be a 6th man (and I don't really know if he is or not) that is a real problem.

However we cannot trade him yet. We need to see more from Josh Jackson to see if he continues his recent improvement, and we need to see how big a contract is going to be thrown at Oubre before we can consider getting rid of Warren.

Ideally Josh develops and we can sign Oubre for under 15 mil long term. But if either of those does not happen - TJ needs to be around to take their place.

 

[95pro]

We can't trade TJ just to trade him. We need guys who can fill a role. Ayton is our star. Booker is our scorer. Bridges, Oubre, Jackson and Holmes provide energy, hustle and defense. TJ is not on Booker's scoring level but we still need a scorer who's not a guard. For his salary, he provides some good scoring and a great 3pt % this year. I know we need a guard, but that's not happening this year. Let it ride out and see how the team develops under Igor. I also am not keen on getting rid of TJ because Oubre is playing for a contract, we've seen players amp their game up during these times.