Playoff Tie-Breakers (ARI 6-6)

TheCardinal

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No elimination scenarios yet for the Cardinals for Week 14. Obviously no clinching scenarios yet for us either. You can cue Jim Mora about our chances of making the post-season, but for those keeping score at home, here is how things shape up for the Cardinals in potential tie-breakers. Most of what follows gets down into the weeds and relies on unlikely scenarios, but I've highlighted the most important parts.

New Orleans (10-2): We can only catch the Saints at 10-6. Should that occur, we would have matching conference records (8-4) and matching records in common games (3-2). It would come down to strength-of-victory, where we currently lead by the razor-thin margin of 50.5 vs 49. (including the forced outcomes in the above assumptions, but not counting the Sunday/Monday/Tuesday games from Week 13, still pending).

Green Bay (9-3): If the Packers' only remaining win is against TEN (a "cheaper" AFC win), we would beat them in a 10-6 tie. Anything else at 9-7 or 10-6, and it would come down to common games where we would have to beat PHI/SNF while they would have to lose to DET/CRL to tie things up at 3-2. Then it's down to strength-of-victory (too many possibilities to work these out at this time). Incidentally, NOS and GBP have the same common games with us (PHI/DET/CRL/SNF) even in a 3-way tie.

Los Angeles (8-4): A win by the Cardinals in the season finale would even up H2H and at worst force a tie in division games. We would beat them in common games record. They would, however, escape us only in a 3-way tie with SEA should the Rams beat them in Week 16 (H2H 3-1 vs 2-2 vs 1-3). Oddly enough, a Rams' sweep over the Cardinals doesn't automatically clinch tie-breakers over us, as we could still use a 3-way tie with SNF (or 4-way tie at 9-7), to come out on top. A SNF loss to BUF Monday night eliminates this possibility as SNF would be forced into 8 losses.

Seattle (8-4): H2H is 1-1. Divisional records are 2-2 currently. If we end up with the same divisional records, the Cardinals would win the tie-breaker on common games.

Tampa Bay (7-5): The Bucs are guaranteed the better AFC record, which means the Cardinals have clinched the better NFC record should the teams wind up tied, regardless of from where our remaining wins come. Thus, the Cardinals have clinched tie-breakers against the Bucs.

Minnesota (6-6): The Vikings did win their remaining "cheaper" AFC game against JAC, so the Cardinals and Vikings WILL finish with the same NFC record should they finish tied overall. Next would be common games, where MIN leads 2-2 vs 2-3 (DET/CRL/DAL/SEA). For the Cardinals to have any chance to win a 1-on-1 tie-breaker over MIN, one of the Vikings' remaining losses would have to be at DET in Week 17 to push things to strength-of-victory. In any other scenario, the Cardinals would lose 1-on-1 tie-breakers with them.

San Francisco (5-6): If the Cardinals sweep, the 49ers cannot sneak past us in a tie (2-way, 3-way, or 4-way). If we split, the divisional records would be 3-2 for them, 2-3 for us. If we end up tied there, common games are also guaranteed to be tied. Conference record is next, and if one of their wins is against the "cheaper" AFC opponent, BUF, we would win that step. If they replace that potential win with an NFC win, it would go to strength-of-victory.

Chicago (5-7): In a tie, at best we could only match their conference record, and the Bears have now clinched common games over us, thus they would win any 1-on-1 tie-breaker against us. I suppose there is still an out, with a 3-way tie involving wild-card NYG, DAL, or CRL to negate the common games step and push it to strength-of-victory, but even I won't spend the time working those out just yet. A more realistic scenario would involve MIN and CHI finishing with the same record, with the Vikings covering up the Bears so that we won't face them in a tie-breaker (only the highest-ranked tied team within a division faces off against tied teams from other divisions at each wild-card tie-breaker step).

Detroit (5-7): The Lions beat us, so they would win any 1-on-1 tie-breaker against us. There are potential scenarios where we could still pass them on tie-breakers, but it would require them winning their "cheaper" AFC game against TEN, and forcing a 3-way tie with DAL or maybe wild-card NYG with everyone winning specific games. Again, not going to spend more time on this one yet.

Also, not going to work out tie-breakers with the NFC East, Atlanta, or Carolina at this time.
 
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TheCardinal

TheCardinal

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For the record, the strength-of-victory between ARI and MIN is currently tied at 28. Giving DET another win (for the necessary win over MIN in Week 17) and giving the winner of BUF/SNF a win makes it 29 to 29, with us still having potential wins this week by DAL and WSH in our corner. I didn't go through other forced H2H wins in the remaining four weeks. . . the point, though, is that this step is extraordinarily close.
 
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TheCardinal

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A few more updates as we wrap up Week 13.

Despite all the gloom and doom, the Cardinals do still control their own destiny for the post-season. Get to 10-6 and we would clinch a playoff berth.

San Francisco's loss to Buffalo makes it official: a Rams' sweep of the Cardinals would give Los Angeles all tie-breakers over us. No way now for us to have leapt them in a 3-way tie at 9-7 with a circle of sweeps (ARI>SNF, SNF>LAR, LAR>ARI). It's OK, we would have preferred the 49ers' loss to the Bills anyway, to keep them one game back.

Conversely, an Arizona win over Los Angeles in the rematch would give us tie-breakers over the Rams in all but one scenario: a 3-way tie with Seattle, with the Rams sweeping the Seahawks. The Rams would win that tie-breaker, but we would be ahead of Seattle, so I guess we'd take it.

The upset by Washington over Pittsburgh gives us another point in the strength-of-victory tie-breaker over Minnesota, should it come to that. That scenario requires the Lions to beat the Vikings in Week 17 to even up the common games tie-breaker. At present, the Cardinals' victims have 30 wins, compared to the Vikings' victims' 28 wins. Give one more to Minnesota (Detroit HAS to beat them in the rematch for this scenario to matter, so they effectively have 6 wins). Then, each team has 5 more guaranteed "wins" based on certain teams playing each other (for example, the Jets play the Seahawks, and since we beat them both, no matter who wins, we get another "win" for strength-of-victory, even if they tie, which is equal to two half-wins). Thus, the Cardinals effectively lead 35-34. The problem is that the Vikings' future potential victims (from among TBB/CHI/NOS) likely give them more credit than ours (from among NYG/PHI/SNF/LAR), so we have to gain ground.
 

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