Pivotal Season?

[CardNots]

Could it be that we only saw a very limited version of the offense, because the offense constantly had to play the TOP game to protect an overmatched defensive rosters?

I believe this 100 percent! I would add Petzing getting to know Kyler, his weapons, how and when to use them.

 

[football karma]

at this moment, I trust this coaching staff

I have no doubt that on offense, they know they have to get more explosive. Gannon was outspoken when he was hired that he wanted "shots" ( or, "pew, pew, pew").

They are also grounded in analytics -- and those say you have to have "explosives" to be a really good offense.

So another year together is going to help at the margins -- and those margins will matter.

To get a team from 3 wins to 8 wins, you have to fix big things.

To go from 8 wins to 11 or 12? Its improving a bunch of things at the margins that will add up to better performance over 60 mins / 17 games.

 

[slanidrac16]

Great write up Harry.
Every season starts with some assumptions.
This defense will be better. Barring injuries, the class of 24 draft picks as well as the this years rookies step up.
The schedule will be easier. Really? Didn’t other teams make improvements? We assume we will be better but I guess we assume our opponents this year won’t be.

However, the saddest part as we head into this season is hoping our Qb, the number one pick of his draft class, is “adequate”. That we are forced to be a run first, throw short passes, avoid mistakes, vanilla, ball control offense.

That’s fine until we fall behind by 14 or god forbid have a holding penalty trying to sustain a 13 play drive. A number one pick should not be the albatross of the team.

 

[Chopper0080]

I still think Petzing is majorly at fault for the offense's lack of production.

He just doesn't want to take chances at all. Why I am not sure, it may be he doesn't trust Kyler, or it may be he just doesn't trust any QB to throw down the field. All I know is Kyler was much more effective throwing down field before he got here - so to me logically he is the reason.

There are vertical elements on almost every pass play. The same with checkdowns. It is up to the QB to choose which to go to, not the OC.

 

[Chopper0080]

Just by talent, defense should be a lot better.

Just don’t hope Gannon reverts back to the vanilla plan he did with Philly & getting away with it because of the crazy talent they had.

I think the hearts of a majority of DCs is to generate pressure with 4 and cover with 7. I think that is the goal for most snaps. I don't believe they will get away from the more exotic looks or pressure packages in key situations.

 

[cardncubfan]

Thanks for the great write-up @Harry.

Super complex discussion IMO.

I think you are absolutely right in JC wanting to play ball controlled offense and do not see as big of a need to upgrade the offense.

But I also think there is more to it.

I think it’s fair to say that Kyler and Petzing left a lot to be desired last season. The weird thing for me is that you saw a glimpse of the less conservative approach. Reiman caught the very few balls thrown his way, but he was basicly never schemed or targeted.
We saw one game of Dortch being let loose with great showing very late in the season.
Zay Jones looked pretty decent at the end of the season when he was finally schemed and targeted.

I also feel there is a need for a deep threat on the team, but JC and MO doesn’t seem to share that opinion. Why is that?

Could it be that we only saw a very limited version of the offense, because the offense constantly had to play the TOP game to protect an overmatched defensive rosters?

What if Petzing had more options but was told to play it super conservative? The team was in all the games that were lost by playing conservative.

And while we sit here on this board complaining, the offense still finished 11th in scoring offense.

Jesus Christ is running the team now? Should help I guess since we always play on Sundays.

 

[PDXChris]

You expect a 28 year old with 64 NFL starts to, what, be top 5 in sacks this season? 11+ sacks?

Expect? No? But I would not be shocked if it happens. Chandler Jones had his best season at 29 and second best at 27 both after coming to AZ. There are lots of variables that can lead to it. He will be THE GUY now, so he should get more opportunities. As we know, that is only part of it, but that and being a system the fits him and has good to above average pieces around him can get him there. Again, I don't expect it, but it won't surprise me if it happens. And to be fair, Sweats best NFL season was the on par with the worst for Jones in AZ, so there is a bit of a gap there.

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[kerouac9]

Chandler Jones had his best season at 29 and second best at 27 both after coming to AZ. There are lots of variables that can lead to it.

Yes. Chandler Jones had done it before, and multiple times.

You're talking about a guy who has never done something before suddenly doing it. IMO, those are different things. It seemed there was a consensus that Josh Sweat was at least two tiers down from Trey Henderickson and other top/"great" pass rushers. Now it seems like people think he belongs there.

I don't think there's much evidence to suggest that's likely, although it's possible (obviously). Kyle Van Noy just had a 12.5 sack season at age 33.

 

[BirdGangThing]

idc how many sacks sweat gets - only that he stays healthy and is a problem - same for all our guys - if everyone upfront is formidable (not to mention fresh) it'll be a group effort - first guy in is probably occupying a second blocker - that should be just as honorable as a sack - we murder as a team - we didn't bring all this violence in to showcase josh sweat - we brought in josh sweat in to showcase all this violence

this is when you'll see will johnson and dtd streaking across the field making the picks we never get

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[PDXChris]

Yes. Chandler Jones had done it before, and multiple times.

You're talking about a guy who has never done something before suddenly doing it. IMO, those are different things. It seemed there was a consensus that Josh Sweat was at least two tiers down from Trey Henderickson and other top/"great" pass rushers. Now it seems like people think he belongs there.

I don't think there's much evidence to suggest that's likely, although it's possible (obviously). Kyle Van Noy just had a 12.5 sack season at age 33.

I absolutely agree. Just saying it is possible, not probable. If he reaches 10 sacks, I think we will all be happy with the signing.

And then the last two years have been butt! This is the last ten years of the team sack leader. 10 sacks from Sweat feels like a miracle now!
2024 5 sacks - Collins
2023 6 sacks - Gardeck
2022 12.5 sacks - Watt
2021 11 sacks - Golden, 10.5 sacks Jones
2020 12.5 sack - Reddick
2019 19 sacks - Jones
2018 13 sacks - Jones
2017 17 sacks - Jones
2016 11 sacks - Jones
2015 8 sacks - Freeney

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Yes. Chandler Jones had done it before, and multiple times.

You're talking about a guy who has never done something before suddenly doing it. IMO, those are different things. It seemed there was a consensus that Josh Sweat was at least two tiers down from Trey Henderickson and other top/"great" pass rushers. Now it seems like people think he belongs there.

I don't think there's much evidence to suggest that's likely, although it's possible (obviously). Kyle Van Noy just had a 12.5 sack season at age 33.

I'd love to know who fits in the two(!) tiers between Sweat type players and Hendrickson. I'm also amused that you're only considering sacks when determining the value of these players.

Is a 8 sack guy who actually plays the run the equivalent of a 12 sack guy who ignores anything but going after the QB?

 

[kerouac9]

I absolutely agree. Just saying it is possible, not probable. If he reaches 10 sacks, I think we will all be happy with the signing.

And this the last ten years have been butt! This is the last ten years of the team sack leader. 10 sacks from Sweat feels like a miracle now!
2024 5 sacks - Collins
2023 6 sacks - Gardeck
2022 12.5 sacks - Watt
2021 11 sacks - Golden, 10.5 sacks Jones
2020 12.5 sack - Reddick
2019 19 sacks - Jones
2018 13 sacks - Jones
2017 17 sacks - Jones
2016 11 sacks - Jones
2015 8 sacks - Freeney

I agree we'll be happy with the signing if he gets 10 sacks.

The last two years have been butt from a pass rush perspective. The times before were pretty fun. Even the late Arians era was better than people choose to remember it. That 2016 season we had the #6 scoring offense, the #14 scoring defense, +56 scoring differential, 9.4 expected wins...

...and finished 7-8-1. 2-5-1 in games decided by 7 points or fewer.

What a ride.

 

[Mulli]

I agree we'll be happy with the signing if he gets 10 sacks.

The last two years have been butt from a pass rush perspective. The times before were pretty fun. Even the late Arians era was better than people choose to remember it. That 2016 season we had the #6 scoring offense, the #14 scoring defense, +56 scoring differential, 9.4 expected wins...

...and finished 7-8-1. 2-5-1 in games decided by 7 points or fewer.

What a ride.

Congratulations

 

[kerouac9]

I'd love to know who fits in the two(!) tiers between Sweat type players and Hendrickson. I'm also amused that you're only considering sacks when determining the value of these players.

Is a 8 sack guy who actually plays the run the equivalent of a 12 sack guy who ignores anything but going after the QB?

"Actually plays the run." Lemme know how you quantify that. Simeon Rice isn't really in the NFL anymore.

This list isn't exhaustive or anything, but let me know which of these guys "ignore anything but going after the QB":

Tier 1 - Elite pass rushers/Perennial DPOY contenders
Trey Hendrickson
Myles Garrett
TJ Watt
Micah Parsons

Tier 2 - Consistent double-digit sacks/Regular Pro Bowl contenders
Nick Bosa
Jonathan Grennard
Danielle Hunter
Haason Reddick
Will Anderson
Travon Walker

Tier 3 - Average starters with defined upside
Za'Darius Smith
Brian Burns
Josh Hines-Allen
Harold Landry
Josh Sweat

 

[BirdGangThing]

Tier 3 - Average starters with defined upside
Za'Darius Smith
Brian Burns
Josh Hines-Allen
Harold Landry
Josh Sweat

you get this off pff?

 

[kerouac9]

you get this off pff?

No it's my label.

 

[Mulli]

No it's my label.

You have a defined upside?

 

[ASUCHRIS]

"Actually plays the run." Lemme know how you quantify that. Simeon Rice isn't really in the NFL anymore.

This list isn't exhaustive or anything, but let me know which of these guys "ignore anything but going after the QB":

Tier 1 - Elite pass rushers/Perennial DPOY contenders
Trey Hendrickson
Myles Garrett
TJ Watt
Micah Parsons

Tier 2 - Consistent double-digit sacks/Regular Pro Bowl contenders
Nick Bosa
Jonathan Grennard
Danielle Hunter
Haason Reddick
Will Anderson
Travon Walker

Tier 3 - Average starters with defined upside
Za'Darius Smith
Brian Burns
Josh Hines-Allen
Harold Landry
Josh Sweat

TYFYS. Looks like one group of people between elite and Josh Sweat. I would be curious to see how everyone on this list grades out pass rush vs. run. (not curious enough to do the actual research, but maybe someone will be inspired!)

 

[kerouac9]

You have a defined upside?

Hard ceiling

 

[DVontel]

Let’s just say I feel much better about the Josh Sweat acquisition after signing Calais & Dalvin, resigning Browning, & drafting Nolen.

 

[football karma]

That 2016 season we had the #6 scoring offense, the #14 scoring defense, +56 scoring differential, 9.4 expected wins...

...and finished 7-8-1. 2-5-1 in games decided by 7 points or fewer.

that was the year special teams ruined the season -- blocked kicks, missed kicks, etc

 

[BullheadCardFan]

that was the year special teams ruined the season -- blocked kicks, missed kicks, etc

Was that Amos?

 

[daves]

Was that Amos?

Yep.

 

[Shane]

Was that Amos?

No. Thats Arians for his blatant refusal to fire his inept buddy.

 

[BullheadCardFan]

No. Thats Arians for his blatant refusal to fire his inept buddy.

How many times did we call him out for being so loyal to Amos?

Everyone saw that he sucked except BA