Pivotal Season?

Harry

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The question I’m fielding most these days is why didn’t the Cards secure a prominent WR. Part of the answer can be found in the fact the board still gets a number of negative comments on Kyler Murray. Certainly his play has triggered many concerns about his performance. It has also triggered positive comments about his skill set. This offseason the Cards have been able to markedly strengthen their defense. Few offensive additions have been made. Again some posters have worried that this Murray led offense may not be strong enough to capitalize on the improved defense.

Historically some teams have managed to win with a dominant defense and a weak offense. Occasionally the QBs running those offenses were charged with not losing the game. The Cards re-signed Zay Jones. His career average is barely 10 yards a catch. In 8 years he’s exceeded 700 yards once. Michael Wilson, the presumed number 2 WR has yet to exceed 600 yards. Pp

I have no problem with a run first offense. That said, one of the benefits of that style is that it typically pulls one of the opponents safeties into the box or at least closer to the line of scrimmage. Often that would likely leave the Cards’ opponent vulnerable to a pass play, especially a deeper pattern. The Cards have not chosen to exploit that apparent weakness by acquiring the style of WRs who can spread the field.

Part of the rationale would seem to be the Cards either don’t trust the Oline to provide enough time to throw deep or they don’t trust Murray to throw long accurately. The Cards offseason was clearly a defense first approach. Most teams that are structured that way focus on avoiding turnovers. Sustained drives are also beneficial as they allow the defense to rest and maintain an aggressive, attacking style. Last season the Cards were second in the league in fewest 3 and outs. Simply put they are focused on protecting the defense. I anticipate this year the passing game will continue to primarily choose shorter, high percentage throws. They will attempt to methodically move the ball down the field. Murray will be expected to be consistently protective of the ball. Therefore there is no need for a deep threat, though I’d still like to have Olave.

It won’t be the most exciting offense, because it may often focus on wearing down the other team’s defense then running them off the field in quarter 4. This will be a critical year for Murray. He will have to prove he can play under control and show poise. If not at year’s end the Cards are in position to trade or even release him, though I suspect the former if a move proves necessary. Sadly no interesting free agent QBs will be on the market. However, the draft offers some interesting options depending how the season goes. I’m closely following Sellers, the SC QB. Trading up to get a QB is costly, but the Cards great roster position would enable them to sacrifice future picks to move up. It likely will require a move to pick 3 or 4 to secure a viable future QB. The Cards have saved cap space and except for RT, they have no upcoming free agent concerns. Ossenfort has done a brilliant job of backstopping the few other potential losses. So signing a free agent RT would work as it looks like the market will have a decent selection.

Would I like a deeper WR group; sure. However it’s been proven that a team can win with a great defense and a mediocre offense. The Cards could well have that combo if not more. Murray has to decide, does he want to win and is he willing to stay disciplined to do so? He’s shown he’s talented enough to win close games with a late drive. Hopefully this defense suppresses opponent’s scoring making that situation a rarity. A steady offense putting mid 20s points on the board wins the vast majority of their games without late heroics. If Murray understands what he has and conforms to the system, the Cards could retain him and use next years off season to add Oline depth plus expanding the WR group. With this team’s ability to develop players, the Cards could become a perennial contender for the top spot even if they have to develop a QB.

Considering what the Cards did last year with a tougher schedule and their improved roster, most of the power ranking I’m seeing surprise me. I think Gannon and his staff are being dramatically underrated. Few of those rankings would seem to put the Cards in the playoffs. For myself, barring catastrophic injuries, this looks like a playoff team even if Murray is just average. If he plays up to his potential, this could be a banner year.
 

az jam

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The Cards will have one of the better defenses this year and they have a much easier schedule. They really should make the playoffs. I just don't understand why they didn't add a solid vet WR in free agency as they certainly have the money. If an injury occurs to either Harrison or Mc Bride their passing game will be a disaster. It is all on Monti for sure.
 

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Lot of this “the Cards are gonna have a top defense” hangs precariously on the assumption that Walter Nolen and Darius Robinson are going to be above-average NFL players very quickly.

Sweat and Tomlinson and Campbell are average starters.
And the winning percentage of the safeties is just not very good.
 

kerouac9

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when they're all playing together tho? plus the rookies? that's why the eagles had success - yes? nobody had double digit sacks but everybody had sacks - btw they're not average they're formidable
They are average. Maybe the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. But there's a reason that Philly let Sweat walk and Tomlinson is on his third team in four seasons.

Also, we lack the Jalen Carter or Milton Williams factors. Maybe Nolen and Darius are that, and are so immediately. But Carter wasn't the monster he was last year as a rookie, and Milton Williams wasn't a regular starter until his third season.
 

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They are average. Maybe the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. But there's a reason that Philly let Sweat walk and Tomlinson is on his third team in four seasons.

Also, we lack the Jalen Carter or Milton Williams factors. Maybe Nolen and Darius are that, and are so immediately. But Carter wasn't the monster he was last year as a rookie, and Milton Williams wasn't a regular starter until his third season.
Money, right?
 

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The Eagles have $25 million in effective cap space right now. I don't think the Eagles let those guys leave because they're bad; I think the Eagles let those guys leave because they're not that good.
$25 million is what Milton got per year or something? Do you even math?
 
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Harry

Harry

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I’m usually not classed as an optimist. I think the defense has fire power coming from so many directions they will be hard to control. As to Nolen and Robinson being immediate impact players, I look at what the Cards did with lesser players in 2024. They may not be Pro Bowl players, but they should prove a challenge for blockers. This will be an exhausting team to play due to its depth. That depth should also help them maintain a high level of performance for all 17 games. I will be astonished if this defense doesn’t take a major step forward. As to adding players, that’s always a possibility, but Ossenfort doesn’t like bandaids. Unless someone available can be a multi-year asset, I’m betting against an impact player addition. I love Olave, only if the price makes him a bargain. It’s just not Ossenfort’s style to give up future potential.
 

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Hi Harry, great writeup. Best I have seen on the Cardinals this year. We should improve with the easier schedule. Like most teams the season will be determined by how well the QB plays. I am not optimistic.
 

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They are average. Maybe the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. But there's a reason that Philly let Sweat walk and Tomlinson is on his third team in four seasons.

Also, we lack the Jalen Carter or Milton Williams factors. Maybe Nolen and Darius are that, and are so immediately. But Carter wasn't the monster he was last year as a rookie, and Milton Williams wasn't a regular starter until his third season.
who cares about what jalen carter did last year or when milton williams became a starter - these are not relative to the convo at hand my man - im not gonna go look up two randos who did good in similar situations and post that in this conversation because it doesn't pertain to nolen or d-rob - who as of right now are unknown quantities

sweat and tomlinson however are above average - your a salary guy - a capalogist extraordinaire - do they have average salaries or is this the part where you say we overpaid - before ever seeing what they do here
 

PJ1

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I’m usually not classed as an optimist. I think the defense has fire power coming from so many directions they will be hard to control. As to Nolen and Robinson being immediate impact players, I look at what the Cards did with lesser players in 2024. They may not be Pro Bowl players, but they should prove a challenge for blockers. This will be an exhausting team to play due to its depth. That depth should also help them maintain a high level of performance for all 17 games. I will be astonished if this defense doesn’t take a major step forward. As to adding players, that’s always a possibility, but Ossenfort doesn’t like bandaids. Unless someone available can be a multi-year asset, I’m betting against an impact player addition. I love Olave, only if the price makes him a bargain. It’s just not Ossenfort’s style to give up future potential.
Agreed. To believe our D hasn’t improved significantly is absurd.
 

kerouac9

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who cares about what jalen carter did last year or when milton williams became a starter - these are not relative to the convo at hand my man - im not gonna go look up two randos who did good in similar situations and post that in this conversation because it doesn't pertain to nolen or d-rob - who as of right now are unknown quantities

sweat and tomlinson however are above average - your a salary guy - a capalogist extraordinaire - do they have average salaries or is this the part where you say we overpaid - before ever seeing what they do here
I agree: Nolen and Robinson are unknown quantities. That's why I'm not assuming they will be above-average starters. Are you? How are you projecting them?

Sweat is 13th among edge rushers in APY. Average starter money.
Dalvin Tomlinson is 25th among IDL in APY. Average starter money.

Both are well-known NFL quantities. Maybe Tomlinson unlocks some new quality is his age 31 season, but I'm not assuming it.
 

ASUCHRIS

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I agree: Nolen and Robinson are unknown quantities. That's why I'm not assuming they will be above-average starters. Are you? How are you projecting them?

Sweat is 13th among edge rushers in APY. Average starter money.
Dalvin Tomlinson is 25th among IDL in APY. Average starter money.

Both are well-known NFL quantities. Maybe Tomlinson unlocks some new quality is his age 31 season, but I'm not assuming it.

I expect Sweat to be very good, perhaps great - I expect Tomlinson to be good, but probably not great.

The NFL.com write up on Sweat said:

"Sweat has played like a plus starter for nearly his entire seven-year career with the Eagles. He seems likely to leave after taking a pay cut before the 2024 season."

The Athletic:

Top young talents; older players at premium positions who remain very productive. (3rd overall FA)

The combination of talent on the D overall should be a noticeable upgrade. Still can't believe how little we've addressed the O-line/WR rooms.
 

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