Pick Watch 2018

[JCSunsfan]

Guys. Do you mind if we have a "pick watch" thread this year, where we focus on all three potential first round picks? If we take this approach, I think we can all enjoy it--tankers and anti-tankers alike.

As of today:

Suns #5 (Porter, Jackson, Bridges, Carter)
Miami #12 (McCoy, Bridges, Trent, Duval, Young)
Milwaukee #20 (not conveyed)

 

[JCSunsfan]

BTW. The next Kristaps is Bol Bol. Catch some vid. 2019 draft.

 

[Dback Jon]

Good idea

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I like it

 

[Carolinacacti]

Time line. First pick should be a one and done other picks older players.

 

[GatorAZ]

The Bucks pick won't convey unless Giannis gets injured.

 

[JCSunsfan]

The Bucks pick won't convey unless Giannis gets injured.

Might rethink that. Miami is in the 16 position. Milwaukee is a half a game ahead in the 17 position.

There is open talk of firing Kidd and there is a huge need in Milwaukee at the center position.

And we have oodles of them.

 

[Hoop Head]

The Bucks aren't very good and I'm not sure it's Kidd. I didn't think Bledsoe was going to help them much and it doesn't appear he has, if he was used in the 2nd unit he might have been able to help them but they threw him into the starting lineup and moved Brogdan to the bench and his play has suffered from that.

 

[JCSunsfan]

The Bucks aren't very good and I'm not sure it's Kidd. I didn't think Bledsoe was going to help them much and it doesn't appear he has, if he was used in the 2nd unit he might have been able to help them but they threw him into the starting lineup and moved Brogdan to the bench and his play has suffered from that.

I think they need Monroe more than Bledsoe.

 

[Hoop Head]

I think they need Monroe more than Bledsoe.

I'd gladly send him back for Brodgan and them removing protection on their pick. They can keep Bledsoe also.

Chandler is a real possibility for them though. Making salaries work is a little tricky, we shouldn't take anything back beyond this season but they don't have anymore expiring deals. We could trade them Len, if he agreed to it since he's on his QO, but they have a trade exception that could absorb his salary. Removing protection from their pick would need to be one condition, perhaps adding another future pick with protection the Suns set that isn't so weird. Len can't be traded until the 23rd because of when he signed his QO and of course he'd have to agree to any trade but I'm curious if he'd have value around the league, I think the Suns will have to pay him a bit more than any potential suitors if they hope to retain him.

 

[JCSunsfan]

After reading that article about Chandler dealing with several family deaths over the last two years, and how appreciative he is to the Suns for allowing him to put family first--I think he is staying. Chandler is the positive PR that the Suns really need for free agency etc.

Monroe is fine to trade though.

 

[Errntknght]

The East is going to be quite fluid for a while(at least) as there are 7 tems with either 13 or 14 losses. Both Bucks and Heat are in that group. It looked like Detroit was going to fall clear to the bottom with their losing streak but they've just won 2 in a row.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Ok. Here is the potential for this draft as teams start to line up (with just rough projections)

1. Our own first round pick. 1-8
2. Miami first round pick. Probably in the 13-18 range
3. Milwaukee first round pick. 14-16 or not conveyed.
4. Our own second round pick. 33-37
5. Worst of the Memphis/Charlotte second rounders. 35-39
6. Milwaukee second round pick. 45-50
7. Toronto second round pick. 54-57

We have to trade some of these. If not, the second round is going to be fascinating as teams call us to try to get players that fall.

 

[overseascardfan]

Ok. Here is the potential for this draft as teams start to line up (with just rough projections)

1. Our own first round pick. 1-8
2. Miami first round pick. Probably in the 13-18 range
3. Milwaukee first round pick. 14-16 or not conveyed.
4. Our own second round pick. 33-37
5. Worst of the Memphis/Charlotte second rounders. 35-39
6. Milwaukee second round pick. 45-50
7. Toronto second round pick. 54-57

We have to trade some of these. If not, the second round is going to be fascinating as teams call us to try to get players that fall.

So we only get MIL's pick if its 14, 15 or 16? That's an odd protection. Either its lotto protected or not but pretty much lotto protected and late round protected? I figure the lower the pick MIL would want it conveyed, right?

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

So we only get MIL's pick if its 14, 15 or 16? That's an odd protection. Either its lotto protected or not but pretty much lotto protected and late round protected? I figure the lower the pick MIL would want it conveyed, right?

We placed the downside protection on it.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

So we only get MIL's pick if its 14, 15 or 16? That's an odd protection. Either its lotto protected or not but pretty much lotto protected and late round protected? I figure the lower the pick MIL would want it conveyed, right?

We also get it if it's 11, 12, or 13...I think he put 14-16 because it is highly unlikely the Bucks perform that poorly this year.

 

[JCSunsfan]

So we only get MIL's pick if its 14, 15 or 16? That's an odd protection. Either its lotto protected or not but pretty much lotto protected and late round protected? I figure the lower the pick MIL would want it conveyed, right?

That's just my projection of where the pick will likely fall. We actually get the pick if it falls between 11 and 16.

 

[JCSunsfan]

At this moment, and in spite of our recent play, fivethirtyeight.com predicts the Suns will finish 4th in the pre-lottery seeding. I assume that is based upon the difficulty of the schedule from here out.

But also, the site is predicting that the Miami pick well end up 13 and the Milwaukee pick 15. So, oddsmakers are betting the Suns have three first round picks this summer, two lotto, one just outside.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Assuming that all comes true (and it won't, but its an independent objective projection), we could be looking at something like:

4. Young, Porter, Bamba
13. Bridges, Bridges, Carter. McCoy
15. Walker, McCoy, Duval

I would be all for trading 13 and 15 to move up to 9-10. I would even trade #13, and our top 5 (or 7 or 8 etc) protected pick next year to move up to 6 or 7.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

That scenario would be fantastic. I hope that becomes a reality, but I'm not optimistic.

This would be the most valuable 4th overall pick in a long time. Doncic, Ayton, Young, or Bagley.

 

[Phrazbit]

I'd be willing to package all three to get Young, but... hopefully he is there for us anyway.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

I'd be willing to package all three to get Young, but... hopefully he is there for us anyway.

I would be willing to package all three for any of the top 4. We don't need more prospects...We need the RIGHT prospect. Hit on the right point guard, and the chances of Bender, Chriss, and Jackson go up as a result. Get that franchise big, and Booker's job just got a lot easier.

Doncic. Young. Ayton. Bagley.

 

[SirStefan32]

I would be willing to package all three for any of the top 4. We don't need more prospects...We need the RIGHT prospect. Hit on the right point guard, and the chances of Bender, Chriss, and Jackson go up as a result. Get that franchise big, and Booker's job just got a lot easier.

Doncic. Young. Ayton. Bagley.

I won't comment as to individual names, as I am not familiar enough with them, but I completely agree with your posts. They have plenty of prospects. They don't need three more. They need one player who will be a difference maker.

 

[Mainstreet]

I would be willing to package all three for any of the top 4. We don't need more prospects...We need the RIGHT prospect. Hit on the right point guard, and the chances of Bender, Chriss, and Jackson go up as a result. Get that franchise big, and Booker's job just got a lot easier.

Doncic. Young. Ayton. Bagley.

I do want the Suns to come out of the draft with a quality PG and a quality big man.

Do what they have to to do to draft Young and consider adding future picks along with current picks to get a quality big man. The only player I'm sold on at the moment is Young.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

I do want the Suns to come out of the draft with a quality PG and a quality big man.

Do what they have to to do to draft Young and consider adding future picks along with current picks to get a quality big man. The only player I'm sold on at the moment is Young.

In an ideal world, the Suns can get a PG and a big. However, I'd rather have Young OR Ayton than Duval AND Jackson or even Sexton AND Williams. Don't forget we have opportunities in free agency and trades as well.

I'm 100% sold on Doncic, Young, and Ayton. I have concerns about Bagley, but his talent is worth the potential negatives.

 

[GatorAZ]

I'd be willing to package all three to get Young, but... hopefully he is there for us anyway.

Young is having an historic season to this point. There's no way a team is trading back for mediocre picks. It would have to be a legit player(s) and Booker isn't going anywhere.

Our only hope is getting lucky in the lottery.