Diamondback Jay
Psalms 23:1
The Marlins are going to sign Alex Rodriguez, should A-Rod opt out of his contract this post-season. Yet, Ken Rosenthall seems to think the Marlins are a "logical fit".. Go figure.
Possible options for A-Rod in '08
Brewers general manager Doug Melvin jokes that he's angry at soccer star David Beckham for stopping at a reported $250 million in his new contract with the Los Angeles Galaxy of Major League Soccer.
If Beckham had received $3 million more, his deal would have surpassed Alex Rodriguez's — and Melvin, who signed A-Rod for the Rangers, no longer would be the G.M. who awarded the biggest contract in the history of American sports.
Of course, Beckham's $250 million isn't quite $250 million — it's an estimated total of what he will earn in salary and endorsements. And of course, Rangers owner Tom Hicks — not Melvin — was the driving force behind Rodriguez's record contract.
In any case, Melvin need not worry.
While Rodriguez's deal stands as a landmark, he is unlikely to realize its full value with the Yankees. His contract gives him the right to become a free agent after the 2007 season. And A-Rod figures to opt out faster than you can say, "J.D. Drew."
Oh, Rodriguez will never admit as much publicly, and he's due $27 million per season in '08, '09 and '10. But his agent, Scott Boras, generally prefers his clients' values to be determined — or, in this case, recalibrated — on the open market.
The strategy worked with Drew, who forfeited a three-year, $33 million guarantee with the Dodgers to negotiate a five-year, $70 million deal with the Red Sox. It could work even better with Rodriguez, who had 35 homers and 121 RBIs last season even though his critics portrayed him as another Angel Berroa.
If Rodriguez has a big '07, he could take advantage of a robust market at 32 rather than wait to become a free agent at 35. He might not get $27 million per year, but as a candidate for 800 home runs — he's 36 shy of 500 — he could land a higher guarantee in a longer deal.
The money probably would not be as lucrative if Rodriguez had a poor or mediocre regular season, or another poor postseason. But his incentive to leave New York at that point would be that much greater, and the Yankees probably would want him out.
Either way, Rodriguez will have options — lots of options.
OBVIOUS FITS
Yankees: People forget, they've got a sweetheart deal on Rodriguez, paying him $16 million per season with the Rangers assuming the rest. They surely would be willing to renegotiate if, say, A-Rod won his second MVP in three years and led the team to its first World Series title since 2000. But short of that, they likely would weigh alternatives.
For all their resources, the Yankees have not awarded a free-agent contract of longer than four years since signing Jason Giambi for $120 million for seven years after the 2001 season. (Japanese left-hander Kei Igawa, who recently signed a five-year deal, arrived through the posting process).
Rodriguez could prove the exception; it would be difficult for the Yankees to replace him at third and find a comparable right-handed hitter.
On the other hand, the departure of A-Rod would increase the Yankees' flexibility, enabling them to pursue younger free agents such as Cubs right-hander Carlos Zambrano and Braves center fielder Andruw Jones.
Giants: Sign Rodriguez, and their concerns about replacing Barry Bonds would be solved. Rodriguez would boost attendance with his pursuit of the all-time, home-run mark. And to think, no one would be trying to indict him!
For all the criticisms of Rodriguez, he's the anti-Bonds, from his squeaky-clean image to his too-eager-to-please personality. He might not enjoy hitting at AT&T Park, but the park has played more neutral in recent seasons and generally is tougher on left-handed batters.
The Giants' current third baseman, Pedro Feliz, owns a .288 career on-base percentage.
Rodriguez's is .386.
Angels: Arte Moreno, come on down.
Sorry, Gary Matthews Jr. isn't what the Angels' owner had in mind when he promised to acquire a big hitter this off-season. The Angels should win the AL West by default, but who would you rather have at third in '08, A-Rod or Chone Figgins?
By signing with the Angels, A-Rod could stay in the American League and remain highly visible in a major media market. He also would play at least two seasons with Vladimir Guerrero, giving the Angels a west-coast counter to the Red Sox's Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz.
Marlins: Obviously, the idea would be feasible only if they got a new ballpark, and even then it might be a stretch. But imagine if the Marlins brought Rodriguez home to Miami as their marketing centerpiece. The city could become a hot baseball market instead of a dormant one.
The Marlins would need to lock up Miguel Cabrera along with Rodriguez; they could play A-Rod at third and Cabrera at first or A-Rod at short and Hanley Ramirez in center. The team then could trade left-hander Dontrelle Willis for a bounty of young talent and become a genuine power in the NL East.
LOGICAL POSSIBILITIES
Red Sox: Difficult to picture them giving A-Rod monster dollars when they control Ramirez through '10 and Ortiz and Drew through '11. Then again, club president Larry Lucchino covets big names, and surely would relish the idea of luring Rodriguez from Evil Empire I to Evil Empire II.
The Sox, remember, nearly traded Ramirez for Rodriguez in '03; if they somehow could part with Ramirez, they could better afford Rodriguez. More likely, they would acquire a first baseman and move Kevin Youkilis to third to replace Mike Lowell, who is a free agent after this season — the top free agent at third, actually, if Rodriguez stays with the Yankees.
Phillies: Some obstacles here: G.M. Pat Gillick, who held the same position with the Mariners when A-Rod left for the Rangers, was flabbergasted by Boras' handling of those negotiations. What's more, Rodriguez's personality would be a serious question in impatient, rough-and-tumble Philadelphia.
Then again, the Phillies' No. 1 need is a right-handed hitter to stick behind Ryan Howard, and Wes Helms is not a long-term answer at third. While Howard eventually will warrant a huge contract, left fielder Pat Burrell is signed only through '08.
A-Rod could be a perennial 60-homer man at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.
Tigers: Not a natural fit, but an intriguing one. Shortstop Carlos Guillen is a free agent at the end of the season. Why not replace him with Rodriguez, a player who is only two months older and has better knees?
Well, Rodriguez might no longer be an option at short — he hasn't played the position regularly since 2003 — and he couldn't play third for the Tigers, who just signed Brandon Inge to a four-year, $24 million contract.
Tigers owner Mike Ilitch, however, is a regular Boras customer, and Jim Leyland might be the perfect manager for Rodriguez, alternately stroking him and prodding him.
INTRIGUING LONGSHOTS
Dodgers: They're plenty flexible, with top prospects at several positions and most of their veterans on short-term deals. What's more, they lack long-term solutions in the Nos. 3 and 4 spots, though they're trying to trade for a young, right-handed hitting outfielder who could grow into such a role.
It all makes sense, except that owner Frank McCourt and general manager Ned Colletti likely will be reluctant to go backwards and invest heavily in one player long-term. Rodriguez also might prefer more of a hitter's park than Dodger Stadium.
Orioles: The only way the Orioles could sign Rodriguez is if they overpaid, and it would be a major upset if owner Peter Angelos were the high bidder for a Boras client. The end of the '07 season, though, might be the perfect time for such a move.
Home attendance has fallen from 3.3 million in 2000 to 2.1 million last season, and the trend will not markedly improve even if the Orioles show progress this season. The Nationals could further cut into attendance when they open their new park in '08, and Angelos needs star power for his new regional sports network.
Rodriguez grew up idolizing Cal Ripken. The Orioles could market him as the next Ripken.
Makes too much sense.
White Sox: It would be too funny. White Sox G.M. Ken Williams barely disguises his contempt for Boras. Manager Ozzie Guillen called Rodriguez a hypocrite for waffling on which team he would play for in the World Baseball Classic.
Yet, A-Rod would be perfect on the South Side.
Sox right fielder Jermaine Dye likely will depart as a free agent after this season. Third baseman Joe Crede is free after 2008.
Rodriguez could replace Crede at third and Dye in the middle of the order. He would be an absolute wrecking ball at U.S. Cellular Field, one of the game's best hitting parks.
Ken Rosenthal is a senior baseball writer for FOXSports.com.
