And Patrick Mahomes had 25 starts with fairly gaudy stats, which is why he was always considered a first-round talent coming out. If Kyler Murray had stayed at Oklahoma and put up video-game numbers for another season, he would've been the consensus top pick despite his height, I think. He made a great decision betting on himself, because he was the top pick and gets paid a year earlier. But he'd also be losing a first-round WR and four draftable offensive linemen with significant playing experience. It wouldn't be inconceivable for him to have had a Matt Barkley-style regression. That's where the risk of the pick comes in to play.