- Joined
- May 8, 2002
- Posts
- 556,793
- Reaction score
- 48
NFL Win/Loss Preview Series: Detroit Lions originally appeared on Athlon Sports.
Suddenly among the class of the NFL, once downtrodden Detroit's projected to win ten games — yet it's being viewed by some as a negative.
LIONS' WIN/LOSS ODDS:
In a league where year-over-year success relies so heavily on improvement, the Lions' questions this summer revolve around recovery from losses. First and foremost on the docket must be former Head Coach Ben Johnson, who played a prominent role in Detroit's renaissance as both passing and offensive coordinator. DET turned around a 3-13-1 record in 2021 to win 36 games over the next three regular seasons with Johnson at the helm.
Detroit's 2024 offensive macros make a case for best in the game (33.2 PPG, 409.5 yards/game, 2.3 first downs/drive, 52.8% success rate, 0.15 EPA/play) — and I guess I'm struggling to resolve they simply forget how to play without Johnson. Dan Campbell's still guiding the ship with a trusted QB under center, and even brought in former Senior offensive assistant John Morton as the new offensive coordinator. Point being, the vast majority of cogs in the offensive engine return for 2025.
A second loss looms much larger by my accounting, as star offensive lineman Frank Ragnow suddenly announced his retirement. Detroit drafted OL Tate Ratledge (2.57) and G Miles Frazier (5.171) but didn't do much else to bolster the trenches — and they'll likely take a step backward.
The negatives seem to be piling up for Detroit but remember, this team won 15 games in 2024. At what point is all this baked into a 50/50 proposition to get five full games worse in a single offseason? The more I look I the schedule, believe it or not, the answer's yes.
As I wrote about briefly in our NFC North preview series, it's arguable no one drew a shorter schedule straw than Detroit. The division itself is already a gauntlet, and on top of that, they get KC, TB and LAR as their one-off opponents.
LAGHEZZA'S LEAN:
I hate the idea of short-selling a team this well-coached and talented on both sides of the ball. However, the Lions schedule is BRUTAL. They'll play four out of five incredibly tough games before the Week 8 bye on the road (@ GB, @ BAL, @ CIN, @ KC) — and it doesn't get much easier after that, opening back up vs MIN, then @ WAS and @ PHI. Yikes.
It's entirely plausible with a few bad bounces Detroit's below .500 leaving Philly, where they'd have to essentially win out to cash. It's possible I regret going against my gut to the over but I'm not touching this.
Thanks so much for reading — If you're interested in upping your analytical game, come check out my best-selling MLB/NFL Betting & Fantasy Data Substack page.
Don't be shy — DM me anytime on X @JohnLaghezza and I'll hook you up with a free trial.
This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 16, 2025, where it first appeared.
Continue reading...
Suddenly among the class of the NFL, once downtrodden Detroit's projected to win ten games — yet it's being viewed by some as a negative.
LIONS' WIN/LOSS ODDS:
- Over 9.5 Wins: (+105)
In a league where year-over-year success relies so heavily on improvement, the Lions' questions this summer revolve around recovery from losses. First and foremost on the docket must be former Head Coach Ben Johnson, who played a prominent role in Detroit's renaissance as both passing and offensive coordinator. DET turned around a 3-13-1 record in 2021 to win 36 games over the next three regular seasons with Johnson at the helm.
Detroit's 2024 offensive macros make a case for best in the game (33.2 PPG, 409.5 yards/game, 2.3 first downs/drive, 52.8% success rate, 0.15 EPA/play) — and I guess I'm struggling to resolve they simply forget how to play without Johnson. Dan Campbell's still guiding the ship with a trusted QB under center, and even brought in former Senior offensive assistant John Morton as the new offensive coordinator. Point being, the vast majority of cogs in the offensive engine return for 2025.
A second loss looms much larger by my accounting, as star offensive lineman Frank Ragnow suddenly announced his retirement. Detroit drafted OL Tate Ratledge (2.57) and G Miles Frazier (5.171) but didn't do much else to bolster the trenches — and they'll likely take a step backward.
The negatives seem to be piling up for Detroit but remember, this team won 15 games in 2024. At what point is all this baked into a 50/50 proposition to get five full games worse in a single offseason? The more I look I the schedule, believe it or not, the answer's yes.
As I wrote about briefly in our NFC North preview series, it's arguable no one drew a shorter schedule straw than Detroit. The division itself is already a gauntlet, and on top of that, they get KC, TB and LAR as their one-off opponents.
LAGHEZZA'S LEAN:
I hate the idea of short-selling a team this well-coached and talented on both sides of the ball. However, the Lions schedule is BRUTAL. They'll play four out of five incredibly tough games before the Week 8 bye on the road (@ GB, @ BAL, @ CIN, @ KC) — and it doesn't get much easier after that, opening back up vs MIN, then @ WAS and @ PHI. Yikes.
It's entirely plausible with a few bad bounces Detroit's below .500 leaving Philly, where they'd have to essentially win out to cash. It's possible I regret going against my gut to the over but I'm not touching this.
Thanks so much for reading — If you're interested in upping your analytical game, come check out my best-selling MLB/NFL Betting & Fantasy Data Substack page.
Don't be shy — DM me anytime on X @JohnLaghezza and I'll hook you up with a free trial.
This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 16, 2025, where it first appeared.
Continue reading...
