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Fans, draft analysts and talent evaluators try to convince themselves that there are safe picks in the NFL draft. In reality, every draft pick carries a certain amount of risk.
Of course, some picks are bigger gambles than others. That can especially be true in the draft's early rounds, when talent evaluators are weighing potential versus production when assessing some of the top prospects.
Often, there are a handful of high-ceiling prospects who fail to check one of the major boxes for NFL teams. Whether it's concerns about measurables, injury issues or lack of production in college, these red flags can create risk for NFL teams considering choosing them.
These players often have high ceilings as well, whether it's based on their athletic abilities or high-end production in college. If teams hit on these high-potential players, they can become steals and bona fide stars.
Who are the top boom-or-bust prospects for the 2025 NFL Draft? Here's a look at a handful of early-round prospects who could reward those willing to take a risk on them.
There is a lot to like about Stewart, who has a unique combination of size (6-5, 267 pounds) and athletic ability. He starred at the NFL combine, running the 40-yard dash in 4.59 seconds and generating a 10-11 in the broad jump. His measurables are on par with Myles Garrett which will get many excited about Stewart's ceiling.
The issue with Stewart is his pass-rushing production – or lack thereof – in college. While he generated pressure at a relatively consistent clip, he posted exactly 1.5 sacks in each of his three seasons at Texas A&M. If he can't improve his finishing ability, it will be hard justifying him as the first-round pick he will likely be.
But if Stewart can put it all together in the NFL, he may be able to rival Abdul Carter for the title of best edge rusher in this class. Thus, it's hard to blame any NFL team for wanting to take a chance on Stewart.
2025 NFL DRAFT RUMORS: Tracking the latest news, leaks, trades of draft week
Williams is in a similar boat to Stewart. He's not quite the same type of athlete as his Texas A&M counterpart, but questions exist about why Williams generated just five sacks last season in what was supposed to be a potential breakout year.
The answer? Williams sprained his ankle in Georgia's first game against Clemson. From there, he played at about 60% health for the season, as he told reporters during the pre-draft process. If healthier, he may have had a more productive season, like many expected.
With that in mind, an NFL team could plan on getting Williams healthy and tapping into his upside and explosiveness off the ball. He is still just 20 years old and has a 6-5, 260-pound frame, so there is plenty of time for him to become a double-digit sack artist in the NFL.
Milroe is a fascinating prospect. The Alabama product is thickly built and has the speed needed to be an explosive running quarterback. His athleticism ranks in the 99th percentile among quarterbacks, per NFL's Next Gen Stats, so he should keep teams off-balance as a strong, slippery and speedy scrambler.
The problem is that Milroe needs a lot of work as a passer to become a true NFL starter. He struggled at Alabama to consistently get the ball into the hands of his playmakers. He has an NFL-caliber arm but had issues with ball placement and touch passing, which led to erratic performances.
Milroe has a wide draft range and may not ultimately become a bust if he is selected to be a high-upside, developmental backup. That said, if a team chooses him in Round 1 or 2 and looks to make him a starter early in his career, it's easy to imagine his unpolished passing game earning him the bust label.
NFL DRAFT PREDICTIONS: Tyler Shough, Jalen Milroe go inside the top 50
Nolen was once the No. 1 overall recruit in the country. He didn't quite live up to that billing in college but generated a career-high 6.5 sacks during his final season with the Rebels.
Nolen has an excellent first step that allows him to gain advantages quickly after the snap. He isn't a top-tier athlete, but he is explosive enough to become a quality interior playmaker, which is becoming increasingly valuable in the NFL.
Why could Nolen bust? Though he plays hard, he needs to clean up his technique to help him mask some of his athletic limitations. Fine-tuning that will allow him to be more consistent. Failing to do so could make him run a bit hot and cold, depending on the matchup.
Simmons produced elite tape in six games for the Buckeyes last season. He was well on his way toward entering the race for the top tackle to be selected in the 2025 NFL Draft before a torn patellar tendon prematurely ended his season.
Patellar tendon injuries are notoriously tricky for professional athletes to overcome. Simmons will have his work cut out for him in returning to form while adapting to the NFL level. Still, he has the size (6-5, 317 pounds), athleticism and technique needed to be a top left tackle.
NFL DRAFT BIG BOARD: Travis Hunter leads top 200 players for 2025
Johnson looks the part of a strong, physical outside starter at the NFL level. He was productive during his college career at Michigan, generating nine interceptions over 32 career games and has the instincts needed to be a No. 1 cornerback.
That said, Johnson has injury and speed concerns that could impact his ceiling at the NFL level. He played just six games in his final season with the Wolverines because of a turf toe injury. He also decided not to run the 40-yard dash before the draft, making many wonder whether his time would have come up well short of the typical benchmark for his position.
If Johnson's long speed is an issue, he could find himself getting beat deep more often than most would like. But if he plays like he did on tape, he should end up being the best pure cornerback in this year's draft class.
McMillan is another player with speed concerns. Unlike Johnson, the Arizona product ran the 40-yard dash at his pro day and reportedly clocked a 4.48. However, some had it estimated in the 4.5s, which is on the average side for a receiver, and he didn't show great wheels on tape.
McMillan's middling speed could make separation more of an issue for him at the professional level than in college. Still, the 6-4, 219-pound receiver has great length and contested catch abilities which could make him a strong top target in the mold of Drake London. That's why he's in the running to be the first pure receiver chosen in the draft.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL draft prospects: Shemar Stewart highlights boom or bust candidates
Continue reading...
Of course, some picks are bigger gambles than others. That can especially be true in the draft's early rounds, when talent evaluators are weighing potential versus production when assessing some of the top prospects.
Often, there are a handful of high-ceiling prospects who fail to check one of the major boxes for NFL teams. Whether it's concerns about measurables, injury issues or lack of production in college, these red flags can create risk for NFL teams considering choosing them.
These players often have high ceilings as well, whether it's based on their athletic abilities or high-end production in college. If teams hit on these high-potential players, they can become steals and bona fide stars.
Who are the top boom-or-bust prospects for the 2025 NFL Draft? Here's a look at a handful of early-round prospects who could reward those willing to take a risk on them.
NFL draft boom or bust prospects
Shemar Stewart, EDGE, Texas A&M
There is a lot to like about Stewart, who has a unique combination of size (6-5, 267 pounds) and athletic ability. He starred at the NFL combine, running the 40-yard dash in 4.59 seconds and generating a 10-11 in the broad jump. His measurables are on par with Myles Garrett which will get many excited about Stewart's ceiling.
The issue with Stewart is his pass-rushing production – or lack thereof – in college. While he generated pressure at a relatively consistent clip, he posted exactly 1.5 sacks in each of his three seasons at Texas A&M. If he can't improve his finishing ability, it will be hard justifying him as the first-round pick he will likely be.
But if Stewart can put it all together in the NFL, he may be able to rival Abdul Carter for the title of best edge rusher in this class. Thus, it's hard to blame any NFL team for wanting to take a chance on Stewart.
2025 NFL DRAFT RUMORS: Tracking the latest news, leaks, trades of draft week
Mykel Williams, EDGE, Georgia
Williams is in a similar boat to Stewart. He's not quite the same type of athlete as his Texas A&M counterpart, but questions exist about why Williams generated just five sacks last season in what was supposed to be a potential breakout year.
The answer? Williams sprained his ankle in Georgia's first game against Clemson. From there, he played at about 60% health for the season, as he told reporters during the pre-draft process. If healthier, he may have had a more productive season, like many expected.
With that in mind, an NFL team could plan on getting Williams healthy and tapping into his upside and explosiveness off the ball. He is still just 20 years old and has a 6-5, 260-pound frame, so there is plenty of time for him to become a double-digit sack artist in the NFL.
Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama
Milroe is a fascinating prospect. The Alabama product is thickly built and has the speed needed to be an explosive running quarterback. His athleticism ranks in the 99th percentile among quarterbacks, per NFL's Next Gen Stats, so he should keep teams off-balance as a strong, slippery and speedy scrambler.
The problem is that Milroe needs a lot of work as a passer to become a true NFL starter. He struggled at Alabama to consistently get the ball into the hands of his playmakers. He has an NFL-caliber arm but had issues with ball placement and touch passing, which led to erratic performances.
Milroe has a wide draft range and may not ultimately become a bust if he is selected to be a high-upside, developmental backup. That said, if a team chooses him in Round 1 or 2 and looks to make him a starter early in his career, it's easy to imagine his unpolished passing game earning him the bust label.
NFL DRAFT PREDICTIONS: Tyler Shough, Jalen Milroe go inside the top 50
Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss
Nolen was once the No. 1 overall recruit in the country. He didn't quite live up to that billing in college but generated a career-high 6.5 sacks during his final season with the Rebels.
Nolen has an excellent first step that allows him to gain advantages quickly after the snap. He isn't a top-tier athlete, but he is explosive enough to become a quality interior playmaker, which is becoming increasingly valuable in the NFL.
Why could Nolen bust? Though he plays hard, he needs to clean up his technique to help him mask some of his athletic limitations. Fine-tuning that will allow him to be more consistent. Failing to do so could make him run a bit hot and cold, depending on the matchup.
Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State
Simmons produced elite tape in six games for the Buckeyes last season. He was well on his way toward entering the race for the top tackle to be selected in the 2025 NFL Draft before a torn patellar tendon prematurely ended his season.
Patellar tendon injuries are notoriously tricky for professional athletes to overcome. Simmons will have his work cut out for him in returning to form while adapting to the NFL level. Still, he has the size (6-5, 317 pounds), athleticism and technique needed to be a top left tackle.
NFL DRAFT BIG BOARD: Travis Hunter leads top 200 players for 2025
Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
Johnson looks the part of a strong, physical outside starter at the NFL level. He was productive during his college career at Michigan, generating nine interceptions over 32 career games and has the instincts needed to be a No. 1 cornerback.
That said, Johnson has injury and speed concerns that could impact his ceiling at the NFL level. He played just six games in his final season with the Wolverines because of a turf toe injury. He also decided not to run the 40-yard dash before the draft, making many wonder whether his time would have come up well short of the typical benchmark for his position.
If Johnson's long speed is an issue, he could find himself getting beat deep more often than most would like. But if he plays like he did on tape, he should end up being the best pure cornerback in this year's draft class.
Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
McMillan is another player with speed concerns. Unlike Johnson, the Arizona product ran the 40-yard dash at his pro day and reportedly clocked a 4.48. However, some had it estimated in the 4.5s, which is on the average side for a receiver, and he didn't show great wheels on tape.
McMillan's middling speed could make separation more of an issue for him at the professional level than in college. Still, the 6-4, 219-pound receiver has great length and contested catch abilities which could make him a strong top target in the mold of Drake London. That's why he's in the running to be the first pure receiver chosen in the draft.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL draft prospects: Shemar Stewart highlights boom or bust candidates
Continue reading...
