NASCAR Sonoma predictions 2025: Expert picks for Cup Series race

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The NASCAR Cup Series travels west to Sonoma Raceway in California for the annual Toyota/Save Mart 350 on July 13.

Any list of the race favorites must begin with Shane van Gisbergen, who has won the last two road course races in the Cup Series and is going for his second straight weekend sweep after winning the Cup and Xfinity Series races in Chicago.

Kyle Larson has a fine record at Sonoma recently, and it's another chance for drivers like Ty Gibbs, AJ Allmendinger and Michael McDowell to win on a road course and flip over the playoff picture. But SVG is the driver to watch this weekend.

Did every one of our writers pick SVG? Here are The Tennessean's expert picks for Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race at Sonoma:

NASCAR predictions for Cup Series Sonoma race: Here's who wins the Toyota/Save Mart 350​

Mike Organ's pick: Shane Van Gisbergen, No. 88 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet​


SVG was too good on the street course at Chicago last weekend not to pick him this week. In the past two seasons, he has six wins across the Cup and Xfinity Series on street or road courses.

Nick Gray's pick: Shane van Gisbergen, No. 88 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet​


If there's a road course on the schedule in which SVG may stumble, it's more likely to be Watkins Glen with the chaotic braking zone into turn 1 and the winding couple turns at the end of the lap. At Sonoma, SVG can push the envelope with the margin of error being the dirt and grass along the track. (And he has a full lap on each restart before any turn 11 hijinks can occur.)

Austin Chastain's pick: Kyle Larson, No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet​


Larson has seen plenty of success at Sonoma with two wins, including in last year’s race, and five consecutive pole positions. Larson gets his third Sonoma win this weekend.

Tom Kreager's pick: A.J. Allmendinger, No. 16 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet​


Allmendinger is coming off a sixth-place finish and is known for his road course driving ability. This is a prime opportunity to surprise the field with most believing Shane van Gisbergen will win

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: NASCAR Sonoma predictions 2025: Expert picks for Cup Series race

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