My take on the Cardinals' draft

Gandhi

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First, I would argue that you can’t evaluate a draft-class until about three years from now. Obviously, that evaluation – and thus this post – is based on your thoughts going in to the draft, and in that perspective I think you can definitely grade how a team did. Actually, I would also argue that you can grade a draft-class several years down the road. At that time you are grading what that draft-class has become. Not what it is, and I think it’s likely that an evaluation at that time won’t include team fit, team needs, and overall team situation when the draft occurred. A lot of variables goes in to if a drafted player becomes a success or a failure, and unless you believe in destiny I simply don’t think anyone can tell how it will turn out. I think it’s too easy to say now that Richard Sherman should have been drafted higher, because he was not that good of a draft-prospect. Just as I think it is too easy to say now that the Seahawks shouldn’t have drafted Aaron Curry with the 4th overall selection, because he actually was that good of a draft-prospect. Each teams’ decision-makers are very, very good, but they can’t predict the future.

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I had an almost schizophrenic feeling to this draft. I liked every pick, and I disliked every pick. Well, save for David Johnson – more on that later. Case in point: I think Gerald Christian was the best pure value-pick but he’s a H-back-type of player, and Arians usually don’t utilize those types in his offensive system.
To me, this was a perfect example of a draft-strategy executed nearly all the way. I think you can either draft purely on overall rankings (the so-called ‘best player available’-strategy) or you can draft solely on team fit-rankings or you can draft in a way where you try to balance the two things (I prefer this approach). With each strategy, you can implement needs in to the rankings to the degree you want. I believe the Cardinals drafted almost exclusively based on their team fit-rankings, and though that’s fine and a perfectly fair philosophy, I simply don’t like it. Other teams that seems to be drafting that way includes the New England Patriots, the Green Bay Packers and the Seattle Seahawks. You might say that those teams are among the best at drafting but I think it’s important to remember that they have arguable the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and they seems to always have a wealth of draft-picks. In other words, they can afford to miss on a lot of picks, and if you go through their draft-classes the last four-five-six years, you will see that they have missed dearly on many choices. They are, however, always competitive when the season starts. I don’t’ think the Cardinals are at their level yet, and so I don’t think they were right to draft using that philosophy, but I also think Keim and Arians disagree with me. I think all the picks fits more or less perfectly at would they want to do system-wise at various positions, and in that perspective I can see why they would make these selections.

1. D. J. Humphries

I was stunned when this selection was announced. Stunned! I think Massie did fine last season, and though he can definitely be upgraded I never in a million years thought they would use a first round pick to do it. At least not this year. Also, with players such as Stephone Anthony, Preston Smith and Byron Jones available I thought this was a simple wasted pick. You know that phrase “when in doubt, take an offensive lineman”? That was my initial thought. Meaning that it’s rarely a completely bad pick to strengthen your offensive line.

Shortly after, we heard Keim talk about how they had Humphries ranked way higher than this spot, and a poster on this board (I think it was Chopper but I’m not sure) wrote that Massie is in a contract year, they probably wasn’t going to extend his contract, and now they have a probable upgrade at a controlled salary for at least four years. That changed my mind. I’m not saying that I now like the pick, but I am saying that now I understand the pick.

2. Markus Golden

I think this is a great example of Keim and Arians executing their philosophy. I highly doubt that Golden would have been ranked this high in any teams’ overall rankings. On the other hand, I think he fits very well in terms of what they want their edge rushers to do. First of all, Golden can set the edge at a high level. Second, Golden has a high motor, which means that he is always a threat to the opponent on any play. Third, Golden has advanced technique for a rookie. Fourth, Golden has extensive experience as a linebacker at a very high level. I just think it was too soon for him to come of the board. It might be true that other teams were preparing to draft Golden, but so what? Let them make the mistake. Again, I understand the pick, and I can see Golden fit in very well. I’m just saying that, in my eyes, they didn’t optimize the value of their pick. Take someone with a higher overall grade at this spot, and then come back to select the better fit at another time when his overall value is better. Yes, Markus Golden might be gone by then. That’s the name of the game. I would have liked to draft Dante Fowler in the fifth round. Well, someone else selected him before that. That’s simply how the draft works.

I will say, though, that I did feel a little bit better about the pick when Seattle shortly after used a second round pick on Frank Clark. My God, that was a bad pick.

3. David Johnson

I really liked this pick. Many posters on this board has already analyzed Johnson’s strength and weaknesses so I won’t do that. I will just say that despite his weaknesses he has registered more than 1.000 rushing yards in three consecutive seasons (four seasons ago he had more than 800 rushing yards), and he has never rushed for an average below 4.6 yards per rush per season during his time in college. Last season he rushed for more than 100 yards in each of the last six games, and he ended up breaking 15 school records. Oh, and in his four seasons at Northern Iowa he played against FBS-opponents six times. Only once did he gain less than 100 all purpose-yards (77) in those games. As I said, that was despite his issues. I don’t know why he hasn’t run with a lower center of gravity, more strength, and better leverage. If you look at their schedule for the last four seasons, one reason could be that he simply didn’t needed to. Another reason could be that they probably don’t have the best coaches at Northern Iowa. If Stump Mitchell can coach Johnson up, I really think he can be special.

4. Rodney Gunter

Again, like with the Golden-pick, why do this? Why use two draft-picks to go up and select Gunter? I get that he’s talented, and I get that he fits what the defensive line do. What I don’t get is how Keim can rank a guy with so little experience, and from such a little school, as a fourth round-pick. I really don’t care if other teams were preparing to draft Gunter because I simply don’t think he was worth this selection. On top of that, the defensive line is loaded. Why add another player to the mix? Obviously, upgrades are always welcome but was it really necessary?
Having said that, we all know how obsessed Keim is with his draftpicks. He absolutely loves them. So, when he willingly gives away two of them to aggressively go get a player, he must have extremely high thoughts about that player. Dare I say he’s their ‘John Brown-pick’ this year? Remember how excited they were after having made that selection? Still, I have read how Darren Urban validates using two picks to trade up by saying that the roster limit was approaching anyway so it didn’t really matter. I think that’s one of the worst arguments ever. With those picks you might strike gold, and after the draft they have signed more than two undrafted free agents. Surely someone they liked have signed with other teams, and those picks could have been used to make sure that didn’t happen.

5. Shaq Riddick

Yes, he has a lot of potential, and therefore I like the pick. He has the required length to be an outside linebacker in Bettcher’s defense, and yet he is a type of player they don’t currently have (unless you count Kareem Martin) as Riddick has more speed and athleticism than Alex Okafor – and the others at the position for that matter. I think he is at least one year from being able to contribute on a regular basis, and for that reason alone I would not have drafted him this high, but in the future I believe he can be really good. I’m not as critical to this pick as I am to some of the others. I wouldn’t have made it, but there is an obvious need for edge rushers, and to me, this is sort of a ‘low risk-high reward-pick’.

6. J.J. Nelson

Really? A guy with serious physical limitations and ten fumbles the last two seasons in the fifth round? I just don’t get it. I can obviously see the need for a return guy, and I get that professional trainers can probably make him bigger and stronger, but with those mentioned shortcomings was Nelson really worth a fifth round-pick? Not to me.
By the way, Bruce Arians basically gave this selection away a few month ago. Before he went to the Scouting combine, he said something along the lines of “I always likes to see who the fastest guy is, and then watch tape of him to see how he good he is at making cuts”. It doesn’t take a professional scout to see on simple Youtube-videos that Nelson can make cuts.

7. Gerald Christian

When they announce this pick I thought to myself “wow, this guy is anything but irrelevant”. I had Christian ranked as a fifth round-pick, and though teams obviously thought differently, I doubt that a lot of them saw Christian going undrafted. I think he was a pure ‘best player available-pick’, and I could see him make an impression in training camp. It’s just that Arians don’t utilize H-backs in his system so I question why they brought in a player who is not a team fit when the rest of their entire draft-class looks to fit in very well in the schemes.

Now it would seem like they knew Carlson was going to retire. Yet, I still don’t think Christian is his successor.

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So to sum up my impressions: On one hand, I think each of the picks makes sense. I think each of the players fits the systems (save for Gerald Christian). I think each of the players can contribute to at least some degree already this season. In those regards, I like this draft-class. On the other hand, I don’t think they maximized the value with their picks. I think they could have gotten nearly all these players, as well as at least one or two others who might have become very good if they had played the ‘draft-game’ more. To me, it nearly seems that they were targeting these specific players, and ignored who fell further down the board than expected. I those regards, I didn’t like the draft.

This is not to criticize Keim, Arians, and the scouting department. I think it’s just a matter of difference in philosophy, and I didn’t like theirs that much. Obviously, that doesn’t make it wrong.

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Undrafted free agency:

I think this is just as fun as the draft-selections. You can argue that every undrafted free agent is a longshot to make the final roster. You could also argue that those players were most likely on the team’s initial draft board, and that math should tell us that it’s more likely that some of these players makes the final rosters than sixth- or seven round-choices (since there’s more of them). Yeah, I know that teams favor the players they used draft-picks on but it still happens.

After the selection-process, my top three free agents as it relates directly to the Cardinals were:

1. La’el Collins, offensive tackle, LSU

- We all know the story, and he would obviously not top this list if he has done anything criminal in the case. That said, he is a great player, and if he is exonerated, I have no doubt he could be a day one starter, and a cornerstone on an offensive line for years. Now, I could easily be wrong about this but I don’t think Steve Keim or any of the coaches has as much as mentioned the possibility of moving Jonathan Cooper to center – and, by the way, at North Carolina he played the position for like three snaps, messed up two of them, and was immediately moved back to guard. However, if he can do it, I would be drooling of the sheer thought of an offensive line with him as the center, Iupati and Collins as the guards, and Veldheer and Humphries as the tackles.

2. James Vaughters, inside linebacker, Stanford

- Since they didn’t draft an inside linebacker I would have loved to see them pick up Vaughters. Actually, I would have loved to see them use their last pick on him, and I also think it would have been a logic continuation of their approach to this draft. By all accounts, Vaughters is a great person, very strong work ethics, very huge football-IQ, and he has a great motor and passion for the game. On top of that, last season he started every game at outside linebacker – a position that basically requires the same at Stanford as it is with the Cardinals – and no other player at that position in all of college football was more productive per snap than Vaughters. I think he projects better to inside linebacker in the NFL, and he has extensive experience at the position from earlier in his college career. To me, he would basically be a ‘Markus Golden-type of player’ at inside linebacker. Vaughters has signed with the Packers (probably because they are even thinner at inside linebacker than the Cardinals), but I know his decision came down to them and one other team. I could easily see that team be the Cardinals so even though I would be surprised if he doesn’t make their final roster, look for Vaughters when the Packers makes their cuts.

3. Xavier Williams, defensive tackle, Northern Iowa

- They got him so more on Williams in a bit.

Well, Keim sure knows to bring in guys who are extremely easy to root for. I will only mention those who I think are the most interesting, and who I have the highest hope for.

Xavier Williams, defensive tackle

- I watch a lot of college games, and once in a while I have seen a Northern Iowa-game. Every time Williams has impressed me. Every time he has reminded me of none other than Dan Williams. I think Xavier Williams has a very real shot at making the final roster.

Article about Williams: http://www.ncaa.com/news/football/a...owa-footballs-defensive-toughness-starts-nose

Feature on Williams:
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Highlight-video of Williams: http://draftbreakdown.com/video/xavier-williams-vs-south-dakota-2014/

Edwin Jackson, inside linebacker

- Giving their lack of depth at inside linebacker I could see Jackson having a chance to make it.

Article about Jackson: http://savannahnow.com/sports/2014-...-lb-edwin-jackson-brings-leadership-and-field

Youtube-video of Jackson (talk about speed at the position):
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Andrae Kirk, inside linebacker

- Same as with Edwin Jackson.

Article about Kirk: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/fau-owls/fl-fau-football-andrae-kirk-1128-20141127-story.html

Youtube-video of Kirk (kind of looks like Larry Foote out there. Could he get a more obvious coach?):
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Gabe Martin, inside linebacker

- Same as with Edwin Jackson and Andrae Kirk.

Article about Martin: http://www.bcsn.tv/news_article/show/443039

Interview with Martin:
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Youtube-video of Martin:
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C. J. Roberts, cornerback

Interview with Robert:
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Youtube-video of Roberts (very small sample-size but I think he looks like a great fit. We will see if he’s good enough):
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Whatever I think about this draft-class I will say that the next months should be very interesting.
 
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WildBB

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Collins will be re-entering the draft next year.

As to Humphries, it's cost containment and competition for Massie.

If Veldheer goes out for any reason, they now have a legitimate LT b/u.

That's slightly important when you have Palmer taking snaps.
 

az jam

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Lots of work on this, excellent analysis. I think you have to tie in the six major free agent signings prior to the draft to get a complete picture of what the Cards have done in the off season. They are bigger and tougher in both the OL and DL with added depth. The team has now been rebuilt into an what BA&SK want the team to look like. It really should be a very interesting year.
 

iRobot

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Collins will be re-entering the draft next year.

As to Humphries, it's cost containment and competition for Massie.

If Veldheer goes out for any reason, they now have a legitimate LT b/u.

That's slightly important when you have Palmer taking snaps.

Sorry WildBB but that's flat out wrong.

If Collins was drafted, he could of refused his rookie contract and re-entered next year. Because he went undrafted, he is NOT ELIGIBLE to re-enter the draft next year.
 

frankeegee1

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Is he a senior this year? ^^ or did he declare for the draft? Or does it matter?
 

Jim Otis

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Sorry WildBB but that's flat out wrong.

If Collins was drafted, he could of refused his rookie contract and re-entered next year. Because he went undrafted, he is NOT ELIGIBLE to re-enter the draft next year.


This ;
In order to sit the season , and re-enter next year's draft , you must have been drafted , and not able to reach contract terms with the team that drafted you . Collins is an UDFA .
 

MrYeahBut

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Very good read Ghandi, I appreciate all your work on this.

I, too, have the highest of hopes for David Johnson!
 

WildBB

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Sorry WildBB but that's flat out wrong.

If Collins was drafted, he could of refused his rookie contract and re-entered next year. Because he went undrafted, he is NOT ELIGIBLE to re-enter the draft next year.

Interesting. I stand corrected. Wonder when someone will sign him now. What are the authorities saying about the murder now?
 

iRobot

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