Maximize Marvelous

[kerouac9]

Trey’s ADoT is 6.1 yards; Charmin’s is 9.4 yards. Small sample size for both, but it’s obvious that there’s a reason Kyler “has no problem” completing passes to Trey.

The bummer is that Charmin isn’t doing much to advance the case that he deserves more looks outside of his draft status so far and that there’s no one else to open up the offense. Someone compared him to Calvin Ridley and that was devastating to me.

 

[kerouac9]

In order to give MHJ more targets he we need to reduce McBrides targets, why would we do that if MHJ has a terrible catch rate?

You can pass the ball more to get more targets. Thats the real answer.

The year before JG and Drew came, McBride caught for 265 yards and then steeply went up to 900 the following year. That's scheme

It’s also opportunity. McBride went from 39 targets his rookie year to 106. He was on the field and he want being blocked by Zach Ertz. As a rookie Trey was getting the Tip Reiman target share.

 

[TJ]

Trey’s ADoT is 6.1 yards; Charmin’s is 9.4 yards. Small sample size for both, but it’s obvious that there’s a reason Kyler “has no problem” completing passes to Trey.

The bummer is that Charmin isn’t doing much to advance the case that he deserves more looks outside of his draft status so far and that there’s no one else to open up the offense. Someone compared him to Calvin Ridley and that was devastating to me.

In the first game, MHJ was fine because there seemed to be a plan in place for him as he caught 5/6 of his targets with the only miss being a poor throw.

Where MHJ does need to improve is the intangible aspect of the game. When he’s not involved, he does seem to withdraw from plays and looks disinterested. This is a combination of MHJ needing to grow up and Drew getting him involved early and often.

 

[HairZach]

Wrs aren't going to develop in schemes that a) only have the QB drop back 20 times and b) concentrate on short yardage situations. That's 1980's antiquated stuff.

The year before JG and Drew came, McBride caught for 265 yards and then steeply went up to 900 the following year. That's scheme. You still have to devlope even the most tailor made NFL prospects; otherwise, theyre destined to fail

You think McBrides year 2 breakout was the result of a scheme change? Rookie TEs dont usually do much and he had a great player in Ertz blocking the receiving TE role. He spent most of 2022 as a purely blocking TE. In 2023 McBrides role was the same until Ertz got hurt, then McBride got opportunities as the receiving TE, was supremely efficient with his opportunities, then earned MORE opportunities.

As McBride proved himself to be elite, he earned an elite target share. Petzing did not make McBride elite by giving him volume, if that were the case he would have terrible efficiency stats, instead, McBride has elite efficiency stats. This isnt analogous to MHJ's situation, WR roles aren't like TE roles.

We gave MHJ 116 targets last year, good for 20th most targets in the league, and he under produced. He gets plenty of targets, a ton more than his efficiency indicates he deserved, we are definitely trying to develop him. He won't move into the elite tier of players like Puka, Naber, Jefferson or Chase until he starts doing extraordinary things with his targets. Those guys are elite because they can make things happen with the ball in their hands, they're not elite because of scheme or volume. Until MHJ starts playing better than McBride he won't get more targets than McBride. 12 targets a game wont magically make him as good as Justin Jefferson.

We aren't running a 1980s offense that never passes. We threw 31.9 passes per game last year, low yes, but not unusually low. Among the offenses that passed less than we did were, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Baltimore, and Green Bay. Do you really think those teams would be better off passing 40 times a game? They have much better QB play than us and they still run more.

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[kerouac9]

Where MHJ does need to improve is the intangible aspect of the game. When he’s not involved, he does seem to withdraw from plays and looks disinterested. This is a combination of MHJ needing to grow up and Drew getting him involved early and often.

I don’t care about this at all. This is vibes.

Kyler needs to give him more than two targets in the first half.

 

[MadCardDisease]

I don’t care about this at all. This is vibes.

Kyler needs to give him more than two targets in the first half.

Here are the targets that Harrison got throughout the game:

1st drive (1st Qtr):

* 38 Yard Penalty - 3rd & 5 at CAR 43
07:13 1st Shotgun — K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to M.Harrison. PENALTY on CAR-M.Jackson, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at CAR 43 - No Play.

* Pass Incomplete
1st & 5 at CAR 5
07:04 1st Shotgun — K.Murray pass incomplete short left to M.Harrison (M.Jackson).

2nd drive (2nd Qtr):

* Pass Incomplete
2nd & 8 at ARI 24
15:00 2nd Shotgun — K.Murray pass incomplete short right to M.Harrison (D.Brown).

3rd drive (2nd Qtr):

* Pass Incomplete
1st & 10 at ARI 22
05:52 2nd Shotgun — K.Murray pass incomplete short right to M.Harrison.

4th drive (2nd Qtr):

* No passes to Harrison

5th drive (3rd Qtr):

* 12 Yard Pass
2nd & 6 at CAR 16
10:59 3rd Shotgun — K.Murray pass short left to M.Harrison to CAR 4 for 12 yards (T.Moehrig)

6th drive (4th Qtr):
* 15 Yard Pass
2nd & 18 at CAR 27
11:27 4th Shotgun — K.Murray pass short middle to M.Harrison to CAR 12 for 15 yards (C.Smith-Wade)

7th drive (4th Qtr):
* No passes to Harrison

 

[TJ]

Here are the targets that Harrison got throughout the game:

1st drive (1st Qtr):

* 38 Yard Penalty - 3rd & 5 at CAR 43
07:13 1st Shotgun — K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to M.Harrison. PENALTY on CAR-M.Jackson, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at CAR 43 - No Play.

* Pass Incomplete
1st & 5 at CAR 5
07:04 1st Shotgun — K.Murray pass incomplete short left to M.Harrison (M.Jackson).

2nd drive (2nd Qtr):

* Pass Incomplete
2nd & 8 at ARI 24
15:00 2nd Shotgun — K.Murray pass incomplete short right to M.Harrison (D.Brown).

3rd drive (2nd Qtr):

* Pass Incomplete
1st & 10 at ARI 22
05:52 2nd Shotgun — K.Murray pass incomplete short right to M.Harrison.

4th drive (2nd Qtr):

* No passes to Harrison

5th drive (3rd Qtr):

* 12 Yard Pass
2nd & 6 at CAR 16
10:59 3rd Shotgun — K.Murray pass short left to M.Harrison to CAR 4 for 12 yards (T.Moehrig)

6th drive (4th Qtr):
* 15 Yard Pass
2nd & 18 at CAR 27
11:27 4th Shotgun — K.Murray pass short middle to M.Harrison to CAR 12 for 15 yards (C.Smith-Wade)

7th drive (4th Qtr):
* No passes to Harrison

So the one deep throw target he had resulted in 38 net yards.

What are we doing here, Drew?

 

[Chopper0080]

Why so he can drop them?

Rage bait.

 

[TK421]

The WR room is getting a new nickname

You must be registered for see images attach

Damn, with all that attention on MHJ bulking up this offseason I never noticed how jacked Wilson is. Kid is like David Boston Jr.

 

[Chopper0080]

Drops/catch rate are a big part of the problem. It means that most of the time we throw to MHJ, we get 0 yards. Hard to move the chains when that happens. In order to give MHJ more targets he we need to reduce McBrides targets, why would we do that if MHJ has a terrible catch rate?

MHJ has a 22.2% target share and McBride has a 29.6% target share. For example, in another highly concentrated offense, Jamar Chase gets 27% of the targets and Tee Higgins 24.9%. You cant realistically concentrate an offense more than that, its just bad football.

Maybe you're thinking its all usage, if MHJ has trouble catching the deep stuff, maybe give him more short stuff? The problem there is he's terrible at breaking tackles and getting YAC. That was something he couldnt even do in college while beating up on the sisters of the poor.

I think a lot of people just don't realize how little we actually pass in general. 20% of 25 dropbacks is 5 target. Meanwhile the Bengals dropped back to pass 42 times last week. Higgins actually only got 4 targets in that game, while his usage last year would predict at least 10. Higgins turned his 4 targets into 51 yards and a TD. Marvin turned his 5 targets into 27 yards. This is a small sample to illustrate something that holds true if you look at larger samples, Tee Higgins is a better WR than MHJ.

If our defense collapses due to the CB injuries, and our run blocking continues to be terrible, maybe we start seeing Kyler drop back 40-50 times a game. If that happens, Marvin "inefficiency" Jr. might start seeing fantasy stats (PPR scam). I personally dont want to see Kyler dropping back that much. But just know this, if MHJ was as good as everyone here wants him to be, he would be able to produce with the 20-22% target share he currently has, even in a low pass volume offense. If that starts happening I would be fine with him stealing some of McBrides targets. But right now, MHJ is a painfully average player and McBride is an elite player, who deserves an elite target share.

This is kinda a silly argument.

MHJ
Targets - 11
Yards per Reception - 14
Yards per target - 8.9

CD Lamb
Targets - 24
Yards per Reception - 13.9
Tards per Target - 9.3

Basically you are saying that CD is also a WR2 when they only significant difference between MHJ and CD is target volume.

MHJ doesn't get yards after catch tho...

MHJ yards after catch per reception 4.4.

Puka Nacua yards after catch per reception 4.4.

 

[Chopper0080]

He's genuinely terrible at the short stuff.

MHJ has a normal target share for a WR2. He's not as good as McBride, everyone can see it. Giving MHJ targets McBride should get would be dumb.

He is as terrible at short stuff as Puka Nacua is. This argument is tired.

 

[Chopper0080]

Trey’s ADoT is 6.1 yards; Charmin’s is 9.4 yards. Small sample size for both, but it’s obvious that there’s a reason Kyler “has no problem” completing passes to Trey.

The bummer is that Charmin isn’t doing much to advance the case that he deserves more looks outside of his draft status so far and that there’s no one else to open up the offense. Someone compared him to Calvin Ridley and that was devastating to me.

The Ridley comp is silly. I posted above that MHJs per numbers are comparable to CD Lamb and he isn't Calvin Ridley level. Most top WRs get moved around...I have noticed some of that for MHJ which is helpful. Most top WRs get fed the ball in terms of targets...if it's true that McBride is WR1, then why are we evaluating MHJ as a WR1?

 

[Chopper0080]

You think McBrides year 2 breakout was the result of a scheme change? Rookie TEs dont usually do much and he had a great player in Ertz blocking the receiving TE role. He spent most of 2022 as a purely blocking TE. In 2023 McBrides role was the same until Ertz got hurt, then McBride got opportunities as the receiving TE, was supremely efficient with his opportunities, then earned MORE opportunities.

As McBride proved himself to be elite, he earned an elite target share. Petzing did not make McBride elite by giving him volume, if that were the case he would have terrible efficiency stats, instead, McBride has elite efficiency stats. This isnt analogous to MHJ's situation, WR roles aren't like TE roles.

We gave MHJ 116 targets last year, good for 20th most targets in the league, and he under produced. He gets plenty of targets, a ton more than his efficiency indicates he deserved, we are definitely trying to develop him. He won't move into the elite tier of players like Puka, Naber, Jefferson or Chase until he starts doing extraordinary things with his targets. Those guys are elite because they can make things happen with the ball in their hands, they're not elite because of scheme or volume. Until MHJ starts playing better than McBride he won't get more targets than McBride. 12 targets a game wont magically make him as good as Justin Jefferson.

We aren't running a 1980s offense that never passes. We threw 31.9 passes per game last year, low yes, but not unusually low. Among the offenses that passed less than we did were, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Baltimore, and Green Bay. Do you really think those teams would be better off passing 40 times a game? They have much better QB play than us and they still run more.

You must be registered for see images attach

Moving a WR around in passing schemes is a scheme that makes a difference in terms of production. Most top WRs get moved around and are not just stuck outside at the X spot. Scheming players open helps players produce. To say this isn't the case is ignorant.

 

[BigDavis75]

Trey’s ADoT is 6.1 yards; Charmin’s is 9.4 yards. Small sample size for both, but it’s obvious that there’s a reason Kyler “has no problem” completing passes to Trey.

The bummer is that Charmin isn’t doing much to advance the case that he deserves more looks outside of his draft status so far and that there’s no one else to open up the offense. Someone compared him to Calvin Ridley and that was devastating to me.

Honestly a sadly accurate comparison. I’m gonna log off for the day

 

[kerouac9]

The Ridley comp is silly. I posted above that MHJs per numbers are comparable to CD Lamb and he isn't Calvin Ridley level. Most top WRs get moved around...I have noticed some of that for MHJ which is helpful. Most top WRs get fed the ball in terms of targets...if it's true that McBride is WR1, then why are we evaluating MHJ as a WR1?

Is that small sample size tho? Let’s look back at last season:

Ceedee: 152 targets, 11.8 YPC, 7.9 ypt
Charmin: 116 targets, 14.3 YPC, 8.9 ypt

You might be right.

 

[Chopper0080]

Is that small sample size tho? Let’s look back at last season:

Ceedee: 152 targets, 11.8 YPC, 7.9 ypt
Charmin: 116 targets, 14.3 YPC, 8.9 ypt

You might be right.

Now do I think MHJ is as good as Lamb...no. But Lamb plays a ton out of the slot and is the focal point of that offense. MHJ does neither of those things.

 

[unseenaz]

If the OC can't figure this out then he is worthless.

He isn't maximizing his weapons and if you run to "Its K1s fault" that is still the OCs fault as well.

P Guy is what he is. A guy in way over his head in a passing league.

The irony is that we were saying the exact thing about Deandre Hopkins under Kliff towards the end.. wonder what the common denominator is..

 

[Chopper0080]

I also feel like it's a bit silly to see all of these Ohio St WRs be successful but somehow MHJ was the best one in college but is the worst in the pros. Environment and QB and scheme all matter.

 

[BirdGangThing]

if we had nabers instead of marvelous would nabers see more targets

 

[kerouac9]

if we had nabers instead of marvelous would nabers see more targets

No. He’d be demanding a trade

 

[Cardinal88]

So what do we do? At the end of the day, the passing attack doesn't scare anyone so the defenses are stacking the boxes with 7-8 players to dare us to pass.

Marvin has to run better routes - even when his number isn't called. If it's not a timing play for Marvin, Marvin is rounding every route and he has DBs all over him. He still needs to run a good route to pull a safety over to him or provide space for Kyler to throw the ball. I've been watching Zay Jones run all over the place presnap and then run clean routes. He never gets the ball and he has open several times but since he is the 3rd of 4th option, Kyler never throws his way. It's Trey and Marvin 1 & 2 then Kyler panics and takes off running aroung like the chicken in Rocky.

You must be registered for see images attach

Kyler is who he is. I do not believe he has the ability to read defenses. If I could offer one suggestion, it would be to stop looking Marvin's way and go to Jones as your 2nd option.

 

[Cardinal88]

if we had nabers instead of marvelous would nabers see more targets

Yes! He would be open!

 

[Harry]

if we had nabers instead of marvelous would nabers see more targets

Certainly Nabers has been better. I think the scheme somewhat hinders Harrison. For Nabers to get more targets Murray would have to find him compatible. I don’t think Nabers would have had as good a year last year if he’d have been the Cards’ choice.

 

[TJ]

if we had nabers instead of marvelous would nabers see more targets

No.

 

[kerouac9]

If I could offer one suggestion, it would be to stop looking Marvin's way and go to Jones as your 2nd option.

Found Zay Jones’ burner