Matthew Stafford's regular season performance is declining

[cardinals2025]

(He remains an elite playoff QB).




Impact on Production Metrics​

Puka Nacua, Stafford's key receiver in 2023, recorded 1,486 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns on 105 receptions, ranking him among the NFL's top rookies. The absence of Nacua in 2024 and O-line issues directly impacted Stafford's productivity. With fewer reliable targets, receiver target separation dropped from 2.08 (25th) to 1.74 (67th), and yards after catch per target fell from 3.77 to 3.42. Pro Football Reference data shows Stafford faced 100 pressures (17.7% of dropbacks) in 2023, increasing to 122 (22.3%) in 2024. The advanced metrics corroborate this, with the protection rate declining from 85.7% (17th) in 2023 to 82.8% (20th) in 2024. The increase in pressures aligns with a pressured completion percentage drop from 52.5% (23rd) to 48.5% (35th), and a rise in danger plays from 12 (37th) to 24 (9th). These team-related factors explain a significant portion of the decline. This increased pressure likely disrupted Stafford's rhythm, contributing to fewer passing yards (3,965 to 3,762) and touchdowns (24 to 20).

To assess the extent of the team impact, consider the following:

• Nacua's Contribution: In 2023, Nacua accounted for 37.5% of Stafford's passing yards (1,486/3,965). His reduced 2024 output (769 yards over 5 games, projecting to 2,450 yards over 16 games) suggests a loss of ~1,500 yards, aligning with the 203-yard drop.
• Pressure Impact: With 22 more pressures in 2024, Stafford's sack rate increased from 5.8% to 6.3%. This likely contributed to the 203-yard and 4-touchdown decline.
• Adjusted Performance: Adjusting for one extra game in 2024, his per-game stats still show a decline: 264.3 yards/game in 2023 vs. 235.1 in 2024, and 1.6 TD/game vs. 1.25.

The absence of Puka Nacua and O-line injuries significantly influenced Stafford's decline, likely accounting for a substantial portion of the reduced passing yards and touchdowns. However, they do not explain it 100%.

​

Impact of Adams on Stafford's Issues​

The Los Angeles Rams' decision to release Cooper Kupp and sign Davante Adams aims to bolster Matthew Stafford's supporting cast. Adams, with his proven track record (e.g., 1,000+ yards in six of seven recent seasons), brings elite route-running and red zone skills. Stafford's 2024 struggles included a -22.4% CPOE and 52.7% catchable ball rate in the red zone, the lowest in the NFL, per posts found on X. Adams' 66.7% contested catch rate and two red zone touchdown fades in 2024 suggest he could enhance Stafford's effectiveness in scoring areas.

However, Stafford's issues extend beyond receivers. Increased pressures (122 in 2024 vs. 100 in 2023) due to O-line injuries and a drop in receiver target separation (1.74 in 2024 vs. 2.08 in 2023) indicate systemic problems. Adams' presence may not fully mitigate these, as his success depends on better protection and play-calling from Sean McVay. Early OTA reports highlight growing chemistry between Stafford and Adams, with Stafford praising his professionalism, but historical tendencies of Stafford locking onto primary targets (e.g., Kupp in 2021 and Puka Nacua in 2023) could limit his impact.

Stafford's Identified Issues (2023-2024)​

Stafford's performance declined from 2023 to 2024, as detailed previously. Key issues include:

• Red Zone Inefficiency: In 2024, Stafford ranked last in the NFL with a -22.4% Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) and a 52.7% catchable ball rate in the red zone, per posts found on X. The Rams ranked 24th in points per red zone trip (4.6) and 25th in touchdown percentage (51.4%), despite high red zone attempts.
• Pressure Susceptibility: Pressures increased from 100 (17.7%) in 2023 to 122 (22.3%) in 2024, with a pressured completion percentage dropping from 52.5% to 48.5%, reflecting O-line struggles.
• Receiver Support: Target separation fell from 2.08 (25th) to 1.74 (67th), and the loss of Kupp (injured in 2024, 710 yards) left Nacua as the primary target, potentially overloading him.
• Big-Play Decline: Big-time throws decreased from 32 (5th) to 14, and deep ball attempts dropped from 58 to 50, indicating reduced explosiveness.

Adams' Potential Contributions​

Adams, a three-time All-Pro, brings strengths that could target these issues:

• Red Zone Expertise: Over the past three seasons, Adams led the NFL with a 66.7% contested catch rate in the red zone, including two touchdown fades in 2024 (best among WRs). His 25 red zone targets (3rd) and 16 end zone targets (6th) in 2024 suggest he can capitalize on Stafford’s arm strength, potentially improving the 51.4% TD rate.
• Route-Running and Reliability: Adams’ 75.8 PFF grade in 2024 (30th among WRs) and 1,063 yards across 14 games indicate he remains a high-level route-runner, offering Stafford a dependable target akin to Kupp’s 2021 peak (1,947 yards, 16 TDs).
• Chemistry Potential: Early OTA reports (e.g., web sources) show Stafford and Adams building rapport, with Stafford noting Adams’ “openness and refreshing humility.” This could mirror the Kupp-Stafford synergy that led to Super Bowl LVI.
• Injury Prone: It is important to note that Adams like Kupp, missed several games due to injury in 2024.

Limitations and Challenges​

Despite Adams' strengths, several factors suggest he won’t fully fix Stafford’s issues:

• O-Line Vulnerability: The Rams’ pass-block win rate ranked 22nd in 2024, and with Alaric Jackson’s recent injury concerns, the 122 pressures in 2024 could persist, limiting Stafford’s time to target Adams effectively.
• Target Distribution: Stafford’s history of locking onto primary receivers (e.g., Kupp’s 30.8% target share in 2021 vs. Woods’ 17.7%) could lead to an imbalance with Nacua (25.2% in 2023). Web sources note the Rams’ new WR duo may test Stafford’s ability to spread targets, a challenge seen with Allen Robinson (339 yards in 2022).
• Age and Context: At 37 (Stafford) and 32 (Adams), both face age-related risks. Adams’ 2024 split between Raiders and Jets showed inconsistency (e.g., 67 catches for 854 yards with Jets), and Stafford’s mobility decline (41 rushing yards in 2024 vs. 65 in 2023) could hinder deep plays.
• Play-Calling Dependence: McVay’s red zone creativity will be crucial. The 2024 offense stalled despite high attempts, and over-reliance on fades to Adams (successful in 2021 with Calvin Johnson) may not suffice without varied schemes.

Conclusion

Davante Adams is likely to alleviate Stafford’s red zone inefficiencies and enhance his passing output, leveraging his contested catch ability and experience. However, he won’t fully resolve issues tied to O-line protection, target distribution, or Stafford’s age-related decline. The 2025 season, starting with Adams’ integration, will be a critical test of this partnership’s impact, with potential for revival but not a complete solution.

 

[oaken1]

okay...now factor in Kupp's obvious decline in 24 versus 23

 

[unseenaz]

You should post these write ups to Revenge Of The Birds!

 

[oaken1]

You should post these write ups to Revenge Of The Birds!

or at least submit them to walt for editing...so he can steal them and claim it was his own thought process.

 

[Zeem_Freeze]

(He remains an elite playoff QB).​

​

​

​

​

Impact on Production Metrics​

Puka Nacua, Stafford's key receiver in 2023, recorded 1,486 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns on 105 receptions, ranking him among the NFL's top rookies. The absence of Nacua in 2024 and O-line issues directly impacted Stafford's productivity. With fewer reliable targets, receiver target separation dropped from 2.08 (25th) to 1.74 (67th), and yards after catch per target fell from 3.77 to 3.42. Pro Football Reference data shows Stafford faced 100 pressures (17.7% of dropbacks) in 2023, increasing to 122 (22.3%) in 2024. The advanced metrics corroborate this, with the protection rate declining from 85.7% (17th) in 2023 to 82.8% (20th) in 2024. The increase in pressures aligns with a pressured completion percentage drop from 52.5% (23rd) to 48.5% (35th), and a rise in danger plays from 12 (37th) to 24 (9th). These team-related factors explain a significant portion of the decline. This increased pressure likely disrupted Stafford's rhythm, contributing to fewer passing yards (3,965 to 3,762) and touchdowns (24 to 20).

To assess the extent of the team impact, consider the following:

• Nacua's Contribution: In 2023, Nacua accounted for 37.5% of Stafford's passing yards (1,486/3,965). His reduced 2024 output (769 yards over 5 games, projecting to 2,450 yards over 16 games) suggests a loss of ~1,500 yards, aligning with the 203-yard drop.
• Pressure Impact: With 22 more pressures in 2024, Stafford's sack rate increased from 5.8% to 6.3%. This likely contributed to the 203-yard and 4-touchdown decline.
• Adjusted Performance: Adjusting for one extra game in 2024, his per-game stats still show a decline: 264.3 yards/game in 2023 vs. 235.1 in 2024, and 1.6 TD/game vs. 1.25.

The absence of Puka Nacua and O-line injuries significantly influenced Stafford's decline, likely accounting for a substantial portion of the reduced passing yards and touchdowns. However, they do not explain it 100%.

​

Impact of Adams on Stafford's Issues​

The Los Angeles Rams' decision to release Cooper Kupp and sign Davante Adams aims to bolster Matthew Stafford's supporting cast. Adams, with his proven track record (e.g., 1,000+ yards in six of seven recent seasons), brings elite route-running and red zone skills. Stafford's 2024 struggles included a -22.4% CPOE and 52.7% catchable ball rate in the red zone, the lowest in the NFL, per posts found on X. Adams' 66.7% contested catch rate and two red zone touchdown fades in 2024 suggest he could enhance Stafford's effectiveness in scoring areas.

However, Stafford's issues extend beyond receivers. Increased pressures (122 in 2024 vs. 100 in 2023) due to O-line injuries and a drop in receiver target separation (1.74 in 2024 vs. 2.08 in 2023) indicate systemic problems. Adams' presence may not fully mitigate these, as his success depends on better protection and play-calling from Sean McVay. Early OTA reports highlight growing chemistry between Stafford and Adams, with Stafford praising his professionalism, but historical tendencies of Stafford locking onto primary targets (e.g., Kupp in 2021 and Puka Nacua in 2023) could limit his impact.

Stafford's Identified Issues (2023-2024)​

Stafford's performance declined from 2023 to 2024, as detailed previously. Key issues include:

• Red Zone Inefficiency: In 2024, Stafford ranked last in the NFL with a -22.4% Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) and a 52.7% catchable ball rate in the red zone, per posts found on X. The Rams ranked 24th in points per red zone trip (4.6) and 25th in touchdown percentage (51.4%), despite high red zone attempts.
• Pressure Susceptibility: Pressures increased from 100 (17.7%) in 2023 to 122 (22.3%) in 2024, with a pressured completion percentage dropping from 52.5% to 48.5%, reflecting O-line struggles.
• Receiver Support: Target separation fell from 2.08 (25th) to 1.74 (67th), and the loss of Kupp (injured in 2024, 710 yards) left Nacua as the primary target, potentially overloading him.
• Big-Play Decline: Big-time throws decreased from 32 (5th) to 14, and deep ball attempts dropped from 58 to 50, indicating reduced explosiveness.

Adams' Potential Contributions​

Adams, a three-time All-Pro, brings strengths that could target these issues:

• Red Zone Expertise: Over the past three seasons, Adams led the NFL with a 66.7% contested catch rate in the red zone, including two touchdown fades in 2024 (best among WRs). His 25 red zone targets (3rd) and 16 end zone targets (6th) in 2024 suggest he can capitalize on Stafford’s arm strength, potentially improving the 51.4% TD rate.
• Route-Running and Reliability: Adams’ 75.8 PFF grade in 2024 (30th among WRs) and 1,063 yards across 14 games indicate he remains a high-level route-runner, offering Stafford a dependable target akin to Kupp’s 2021 peak (1,947 yards, 16 TDs).
• Chemistry Potential: Early OTA reports (e.g., web sources) show Stafford and Adams building rapport, with Stafford noting Adams’ “openness and refreshing humility.” This could mirror the Kupp-Stafford synergy that led to Super Bowl LVI.
• Injury Prone: It is important to note that Adams like Kupp, missed several games due to injury in 2024.

Limitations and Challenges​

Despite Adams' strengths, several factors suggest he won’t fully fix Stafford’s issues:

• O-Line Vulnerability: The Rams’ pass-block win rate ranked 22nd in 2024, and with Alaric Jackson’s recent injury concerns, the 122 pressures in 2024 could persist, limiting Stafford’s time to target Adams effectively.
• Target Distribution: Stafford’s history of locking onto primary receivers (e.g., Kupp’s 30.8% target share in 2021 vs. Woods’ 17.7%) could lead to an imbalance with Nacua (25.2% in 2023). Web sources note the Rams’ new WR duo may test Stafford’s ability to spread targets, a challenge seen with Allen Robinson (339 yards in 2022).
• Age and Context: At 37 (Stafford) and 32 (Adams), both face age-related risks. Adams’ 2024 split between Raiders and Jets showed inconsistency (e.g., 67 catches for 854 yards with Jets), and Stafford’s mobility decline (41 rushing yards in 2024 vs. 65 in 2023) could hinder deep plays.
• Play-Calling Dependence: McVay’s red zone creativity will be crucial. The 2024 offense stalled despite high attempts, and over-reliance on fades to Adams (successful in 2021 with Calvin Johnson) may not suffice without varied schemes.

Conclusion

Davante Adams is likely to alleviate Stafford’s red zone inefficiencies and enhance his passing output, leveraging his contested catch ability and experience. However, he won’t fully resolve issues tied to O-line protection, target distribution, or Stafford’s age-related decline. The 2025 season, starting with Adams’ integration, will be a critical test of this partnership’s impact, with potential for revival but not a complete solution.

great stuff.... very well done.

 

[cardinals2025]

okay...now factor in Kupp's obvious decline in 24 versus 23

Not a decline. It was an injury. Just like Davante had an injury.

And part of that is about how Stafford zones in one target.

Used to be Kupp and now it is Nukea.

Tyler Higbee was just called the most overrated player on the Rams.

Probably because Stafford barely looks his way.

 

[cardinals2025]

great stuff.... very well done.

I guess it is not relavent when we play them twice.

Or that he had 23 pts total vs AZ def last year.

A defense that many didn’t think very highly of.

 

[cardinals2025]

or at least submit them to walt for editing...so he can steal them and claim it was his own thought process.

Is there a problem?

I used https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/matthew-stafford/ for most of the data as well as basic stats from pro football reference and had AI compare his 2023 season with 2024.

 

[kerouac9]

Is there a problem?

I used https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/matthew-stafford/ for most of the data as well as basic stats from pro football reference and had AI compare his 2023 season with 2024.

Yes obviously. It’s barely readable. No personality, no point. It’s the impression of writing.

 

[jf-08]

Is there a problem?

I used https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/matthew-stafford/ for most of the data as well as basic stats from pro football reference and had AI compare his 2023 season with 2024.

He was making a dig on Walt, not you.

 

[AZCB34]

So a 37 year old QB’s performance is declining? Interesting

 

[Stout]

Yes obviously. It’s barely readable. No personality, no point. It’s the impression of writing.

I'm not willing to read to search for markers, but is he just plugging junk into AI and posting the results?

 

[kerouac9]

I'm not willing to read to search for markers, but is he just plugging junk into AI and posting the results?

It sure seems like that’s what he’s done multiple times because he keeps saying it

 

[cardncubfan]

 

[Ronin]

Next up is Brock Prudy

 

[BirdGangThing]

totally - he just declined his way to another divisional championship - dude's done

 

[kerouac9]

totally - he just declined his way to another divisional championship - dude's done

And a playoff win.

:toast:

 

[BirdGangThing]

And a playoff win.

:toast:

and with less than what he's used to

#ripstafford

 

[kerouac9]

and with less than what he's used to

#ripstafford

And his wife is another year older. Sad!

#badatlife

 

[BirdGangThing]

And his wife is another year older. Sad!

#badatlife

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[cardinals2025]

Yes obviously. It’s barely readable. No personality, no point. It’s the impression of writing.

You want the personality so you can take a crap on it.

I tried something new. Hard information.

I am going to make a video on youtube about the entire NFC West, I will post it here eventually.

 

[cardinals2025]

So a 37 year old QB’s performance is declining? Interesting

Many people in here disagree and act like the Rams are basically unbeatable for us. Just an FYI.

One person in particular had AZ winning 12 games and getting swept by the Rams.

The most common view is people would rather have Stafford than any other QB in the division.

Which used to be 100% accurate especially a few years ago but now has changed.

He still the best in the playoffs in our division but Purdy and Murray had better stats across than board than he did last season.

He also got bailed out in two games where Rams offense managed just 12 and 13 pts vs SF and AZ.

No one in here believe Kyler should ever be able to win a game when he scores that little.

Funny thing is that will probably happen at least once this year. I am hoping we beat SEA like 14-10 in Week 4 for that reason.

It would be a statement to the rest of the division, that we can beat you specifically even if Kyler has multiple errors.

 

[cardinals2025]

N

I'm not willing to read to search for markers, but is he just plugging junk into AI and posting the results?

No AI does a really bad job of summarizing. I had to find other sources and added them myself. Some of the sentences are mine, some of the AI sentences that made no sense I just removed.

Despite all this grok is still the best AI option out there and does give good information if you do "deep think."

You also have to feed it stats because it can't read certain websites. So it is probably a 50-50 effort between AI and I.

And then it will make mistakes and act like Geno Smith is still Seattles QB. So it is not so simple as copy and paste.

The reason I used it here is because I wanted to compare data without doing the math manually.

There are many things you can do with AI besides just asking for a specific answer...

1. Having it summarize youtube video transcripts so you don't have to watch long videos

2. Doing math that would take a human 10x as long, it can do in 2 mins pretty accurately

3. Making tables and graphs of information you already have.


The main issue is you are limited with using its full power. Which for Grok is the "Deep Think" and "Deep Search" feature. You can only use that like 5 times a day.

AI like this without it using its full power often makes big mistakes. ChatGPT for instance is still not caught up on the 2024 NFL season. So if you don't use its full power, it will 2023 data automatically.

It literally thinks Marvin Harrison has yet to play a down. You have to educate ChatGPT on 2024 results if you want any assistance.

So its not as simple as just throwing junk in there and having it make it look nice. It takes alot of effort and you have to do half the research sometimes on your own.

True whether you use chatgpt, deepseek or what I like, grok.

Recently I tried to have grok compare player PFF rankings of Seahawks and Cardinals...that was a disaster and took a lot of time and effort from me. AI is still in infant stages with this sort of thing.

 

[oaken1]

N


No AI does a really bad job of summarizing. I had to find other sources and added them myself. Some of the sentences are mine, some of the AI sentences that made no sense I just removed.

Despite all this grok is still the best AI option out there and does give good information if you do "deep think."

You also have to feed it stats because it can't read certain websites. So it is probably a 50-50 effort between AI and I.

And then it will make mistakes and act like Geno Smith is still Seattles QB. So it is not so simple as copy and paste.

The reason I used it here is because I wanted to compare data without doing the math manually.

There are many things you can do with AI besides just asking for a specific answer...

1. Having it summarize youtube video transcripts so you don't have to watch long videos

2. Doing math that would take a human 10x as long, it can do in 2 mins pretty accurately

3. Making tables and graphs of information you already have.


The main issue is you are limited with using its full power. Which for Grok is the "Deep Think" and "Deep Search" feature. You can only use that like 5 times a day.

AI like this without it using its full power often makes big mistakes. ChatGPT for instance is still not caught up on the 2024 NFL season. So if you don't use its full power, it will 2023 data automatically.

It literally thinks Marvin Harrison has yet to play a down. You have to educate ChatGPT on 2024 results if you want any assistance.

So its not as simple as just throwing junk in there and having it make it look nice. It takes alot of effort and you have to do half the research sometimes on your own.

True whether you use chatgpt, deepseek or what I like, grok.

Recently I tried to have grok compare player PFF rankings of Seahawks and Cardinals...that was a disaster and took a lot of time and effort from me. AI is still in infant stages with this sort of thing.

they have you thinking that. But once all those starlink satellites are in place...skynet comes online.

 

[Stout]

N


No AI does a really bad job of summarizing. I had to find other sources and added them myself. Some of the sentences are mine, some of the AI sentences that made no sense I just removed.

Despite all this grok is still the best AI option out there and does give good information if you do "deep think."

You also have to feed it stats because it can't read certain websites. So it is probably a 50-50 effort between AI and I.

And then it will make mistakes and act like Geno Smith is still Seattles QB. So it is not so simple as copy and paste.

The reason I used it here is because I wanted to compare data without doing the math manually.

There are many things you can do with AI besides just asking for a specific answer...

1. Having it summarize youtube video transcripts so you don't have to watch long videos

2. Doing math that would take a human 10x as long, it can do in 2 mins pretty accurately

3. Making tables and graphs of information you already have.


The main issue is you are limited with using its full power. Which for Grok is the "Deep Think" and "Deep Search" feature. You can only use that like 5 times a day.

AI like this without it using its full power often makes big mistakes. ChatGPT for instance is still not caught up on the 2024 NFL season. So if you don't use its full power, it will 2023 data automatically.

It literally thinks Marvin Harrison has yet to play a down. You have to educate ChatGPT on 2024 results if you want any assistance.

So its not as simple as just throwing junk in there and having it make it look nice. It takes alot of effort and you have to do half the research sometimes on your own.

True whether you use chatgpt, deepseek or what I like, grok.

Recently I tried to have grok compare player PFF rankings of Seahawks and Cardinals...that was a disaster and took a lot of time and effort from me. AI is still in infant stages with this sort of thing.

If I wasn't done with your nonsense flooding of the board, I am now. 50/50 is bad and shows you cannot think for yourself, but even an iota of AI interference is unacceptable for me. Unless you're paying all the sports pundits the AI unethically scraped without monetary payment? This clinches you as an unserious poster. Adios!