cardinals2025
Veteran
(He remains an elite playoff QB).
Impact on Production Metrics
Puka Nacua, Stafford's key receiver in 2023, recorded 1,486 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns on 105 receptions, ranking him among the NFL's top rookies. The absence of Nacua in 2024 and O-line issues directly impacted Stafford's productivity. With fewer reliable targets, receiver target separation dropped from 2.08 (25th) to 1.74 (67th), and yards after catch per target fell from 3.77 to 3.42. Pro Football Reference data shows Stafford faced 100 pressures (17.7% of dropbacks) in 2023, increasing to 122 (22.3%) in 2024. The advanced metrics corroborate this, with the protection rate declining from 85.7% (17th) in 2023 to 82.8% (20th) in 2024. The increase in pressures aligns with a pressured completion percentage drop from 52.5% (23rd) to 48.5% (35th), and a rise in danger plays from 12 (37th) to 24 (9th). These team-related factors explain a significant portion of the decline. This increased pressure likely disrupted Stafford's rhythm, contributing to fewer passing yards (3,965 to 3,762) and touchdowns (24 to 20).
To assess the extent of the team impact, consider the following:
- Nacua's Contribution: In 2023, Nacua accounted for 37.5% of Stafford's passing yards (1,486/3,965). His reduced 2024 output (769 yards over 5 games, projecting to 2,450 yards over 16 games) suggests a loss of ~1,500 yards, aligning with the 203-yard drop.
- Pressure Impact: With 22 more pressures in 2024, Stafford's sack rate increased from 5.8% to 6.3%. This likely contributed to the 203-yard and 4-touchdown decline.
- Adjusted Performance: Adjusting for one extra game in 2024, his per-game stats still show a decline: 264.3 yards/game in 2023 vs. 235.1 in 2024, and 1.6 TD/game vs. 1.25.
The absence of Puka Nacua and O-line injuries significantly influenced Stafford's decline, likely accounting for a substantial portion of the reduced passing yards and touchdowns. However, they do not explain it 100%.
Impact of Adams on Stafford's Issues
The Los Angeles Rams' decision to release Cooper Kupp and sign Davante Adams aims to bolster Matthew Stafford's supporting cast. Adams, with his proven track record (e.g., 1,000+ yards in six of seven recent seasons), brings elite route-running and red zone skills. Stafford's 2024 struggles included a -22.4% CPOE and 52.7% catchable ball rate in the red zone, the lowest in the NFL, per posts found on X. Adams' 66.7% contested catch rate and two red zone touchdown fades in 2024 suggest he could enhance Stafford's effectiveness in scoring areas.
However, Stafford's issues extend beyond receivers. Increased pressures (122 in 2024 vs. 100 in 2023) due to O-line injuries and a drop in receiver target separation (1.74 in 2024 vs. 2.08 in 2023) indicate systemic problems. Adams' presence may not fully mitigate these, as his success depends on better protection and play-calling from Sean McVay. Early OTA reports highlight growing chemistry between Stafford and Adams, with Stafford praising his professionalism, but historical tendencies of Stafford locking onto primary targets (e.g., Kupp in 2021 and Puka Nacua in 2023) could limit his impact.
Stafford's Identified Issues (2023-2024)
Stafford's performance declined from 2023 to 2024, as detailed previously. Key issues include:
- Red Zone Inefficiency: In 2024, Stafford ranked last in the NFL with a -22.4% Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) and a 52.7% catchable ball rate in the red zone, per posts found on X. The Rams ranked 24th in points per red zone trip (4.6) and 25th in touchdown percentage (51.4%), despite high red zone attempts.
- Pressure Susceptibility: Pressures increased from 100 (17.7%) in 2023 to 122 (22.3%) in 2024, with a pressured completion percentage dropping from 52.5% to 48.5%, reflecting O-line struggles.
- Receiver Support: Target separation fell from 2.08 (25th) to 1.74 (67th), and the loss of Kupp (injured in 2024, 710 yards) left Nacua as the primary target, potentially overloading him.
- Big-Play Decline: Big-time throws decreased from 32 (5th) to 14, and deep ball attempts dropped from 58 to 50, indicating reduced explosiveness.
Adams' Potential Contributions
Adams, a three-time All-Pro, brings strengths that could target these issues:
- Red Zone Expertise: Over the past three seasons, Adams led the NFL with a 66.7% contested catch rate in the red zone, including two touchdown fades in 2024 (best among WRs). His 25 red zone targets (3rd) and 16 end zone targets (6th) in 2024 suggest he can capitalize on Stafford’s arm strength, potentially improving the 51.4% TD rate.
- Route-Running and Reliability: Adams’ 75.8 PFF grade in 2024 (30th among WRs) and 1,063 yards across 14 games indicate he remains a high-level route-runner, offering Stafford a dependable target akin to Kupp’s 2021 peak (1,947 yards, 16 TDs).
- Chemistry Potential: Early OTA reports (e.g., web sources) show Stafford and Adams building rapport, with Stafford noting Adams’ “openness and refreshing humility.” This could mirror the Kupp-Stafford synergy that led to Super Bowl LVI.
- Injury Prone: It is important to note that Adams like Kupp, missed several games due to injury in 2024.
Limitations and Challenges
Despite Adams' strengths, several factors suggest he won’t fully fix Stafford’s issues:
- O-Line Vulnerability: The Rams’ pass-block win rate ranked 22nd in 2024, and with Alaric Jackson’s recent injury concerns, the 122 pressures in 2024 could persist, limiting Stafford’s time to target Adams effectively.
- Target Distribution: Stafford’s history of locking onto primary receivers (e.g., Kupp’s 30.8% target share in 2021 vs. Woods’ 17.7%) could lead to an imbalance with Nacua (25.2% in 2023). Web sources note the Rams’ new WR duo may test Stafford’s ability to spread targets, a challenge seen with Allen Robinson (339 yards in 2022).
- Age and Context: At 37 (Stafford) and 32 (Adams), both face age-related risks. Adams’ 2024 split between Raiders and Jets showed inconsistency (e.g., 67 catches for 854 yards with Jets), and Stafford’s mobility decline (41 rushing yards in 2024 vs. 65 in 2023) could hinder deep plays.
- Play-Calling Dependence: McVay’s red zone creativity will be crucial. The 2024 offense stalled despite high attempts, and over-reliance on fades to Adams (successful in 2021 with Calvin Johnson) may not suffice without varied schemes.
Conclusion
Davante Adams is likely to alleviate Stafford’s red zone inefficiencies and enhance his passing output, leveraging his contested catch ability and experience. However, he won’t fully resolve issues tied to O-line protection, target distribution, or Stafford’s age-related decline. The 2025 season, starting with Adams’ integration, will be a critical test of this partnership’s impact, with potential for revival but not a complete solution.