I thought about including this when I started the Harrison improved strength thread, but decided I had mentioned it enough. However, in viewing the comments and other media coverage I’ve reluctantly decided to mention it again. Part of my issue is what is a “drop?” Let mention for those of you who don’t know my background when I began professionally evaluating players I had both cable & satellite reception. On a weekend I would typically record 7-10 games. I also would often attend a live game, mostly here in Florida. So I suspect I have watched 1000+ games. I think a true drop is when the receiver gets both hands on the ball and has an unobstructed path to bring the ball into his body. The part about doing acts common to football is more recent. For example, it used to be the case that if a receiver grabbed a ball in the end zone and the ball was jarred loose before he hit the ground, it was still a TD. Metcalf had a big one of those catches.
I have watched recent games where a ball was thrown well behind a receiver. He got a hand on the ball and brought it to his body but was unable to control it. I’ve seen that sequence show up as a drop. Theoretically a catchable ball that is not caught is a drop. So now we’re playing semantics, trying to define catchable. This leads down the rabbit hole the NFL is currently trapped within. Suppose the throw hits the receiver in the numbers. Isn’t that a drop? Watch the arm fighting between typically a CB & a WR. Often the CB is grabbing one of the WR’s arms. That should be flagged but often isn’t. Consider also when the CB has his arm fully wrapped around the WR, so when that WR tries to bring the ball to his body, it is easily dislodged. Simply put, i don’t believe in subjective statistics. Sure it’s impossible to completely eliminate judgment calls, but they need to be restricted to get the most accurate assessments of skill. I suspect this will cause a firestorm, but in the real world it has significant implications.
Let’s consider Murray and Harrison. I will concede Harrison had a mediocre first season; decent but not special. Drops seem to be a big concern. Certainly Harrison’s lack of separation was an issue especially considering the scenarios I outlined above. However, I believe Murray could have made this less of an issue. In college his receivers were often so open, just giving them a shot at the ball was frequently sufficient. That doesn’t work in the NFL. Defenders are better, stronger and faster in the league. I’ve been writing since he got here that Murray needed to improve his ball placement. This is not to say Harrison wasn’t guilty of some of the problem. My point is Harrison would have been better with better passes. Murray often threw behind Harrison on crossing routes. Murray threw some passes way too high along the sideline. Murray has not learned the art of throwing receivers open by leading receivers into holes in the defense. He doesn’t make it easier for receivers to use their body to screen off defenders. This is certainly an advanced skill. QBs typically do not come into the league strong in this technique. However, when one looks at the top QBs, this skill can often be observed. Warner was great at doing this, so was Manning.
Some of this is reading the defense. Knowing where the defense will likely attack from or looking off safeties. I will also reiterate that I think Murray, surrounded by the right players, is good enough to win a Super Bowl. I just do not think he will ever be a dominant QB. Harrison is still new. He will improve. It’s way too early to give up on him or even be seriously concerned. I want to see improvement this season. Then I want to see a third season before reaching a final assessment.
I have watched recent games where a ball was thrown well behind a receiver. He got a hand on the ball and brought it to his body but was unable to control it. I’ve seen that sequence show up as a drop. Theoretically a catchable ball that is not caught is a drop. So now we’re playing semantics, trying to define catchable. This leads down the rabbit hole the NFL is currently trapped within. Suppose the throw hits the receiver in the numbers. Isn’t that a drop? Watch the arm fighting between typically a CB & a WR. Often the CB is grabbing one of the WR’s arms. That should be flagged but often isn’t. Consider also when the CB has his arm fully wrapped around the WR, so when that WR tries to bring the ball to his body, it is easily dislodged. Simply put, i don’t believe in subjective statistics. Sure it’s impossible to completely eliminate judgment calls, but they need to be restricted to get the most accurate assessments of skill. I suspect this will cause a firestorm, but in the real world it has significant implications.
Let’s consider Murray and Harrison. I will concede Harrison had a mediocre first season; decent but not special. Drops seem to be a big concern. Certainly Harrison’s lack of separation was an issue especially considering the scenarios I outlined above. However, I believe Murray could have made this less of an issue. In college his receivers were often so open, just giving them a shot at the ball was frequently sufficient. That doesn’t work in the NFL. Defenders are better, stronger and faster in the league. I’ve been writing since he got here that Murray needed to improve his ball placement. This is not to say Harrison wasn’t guilty of some of the problem. My point is Harrison would have been better with better passes. Murray often threw behind Harrison on crossing routes. Murray threw some passes way too high along the sideline. Murray has not learned the art of throwing receivers open by leading receivers into holes in the defense. He doesn’t make it easier for receivers to use their body to screen off defenders. This is certainly an advanced skill. QBs typically do not come into the league strong in this technique. However, when one looks at the top QBs, this skill can often be observed. Warner was great at doing this, so was Manning.
Some of this is reading the defense. Knowing where the defense will likely attack from or looking off safeties. I will also reiterate that I think Murray, surrounded by the right players, is good enough to win a Super Bowl. I just do not think he will ever be a dominant QB. Harrison is still new. He will improve. It’s way too early to give up on him or even be seriously concerned. I want to see improvement this season. Then I want to see a third season before reaching a final assessment.
