Markets-wish I could say I told you so

Russ Smith

The Original Whizzinator
Supporting Member
Joined
May 14, 2002
Posts
84,223
Reaction score
32,835
I figured it would eventually correct and man has it, DOW was under 16K for awhile today. I sold my VTI yesterday just a slight loss on when I bought it.

But of the 2 stocks I have remaining, both are down, really mad at myself on one I was up nearly 50% on it, got greedy and now I'm down about 10%.

I think I'm staying cash for a bit save the 2 stocks I already own.
 

BillsCarnage

ASFN Addict
Joined
Dec 2, 2005
Posts
5,827
Reaction score
1,196
Location
The Flip Side
It's about time to start hoarding cash. The market was due for a correction and the bounce should happen next week. After that, ugh...

It's still going to be a fragile market through EOY. Ebola, middle east, Germany and every thing else..
 
OP
OP
Russ Smith

Russ Smith

The Original Whizzinator
Supporting Member
Joined
May 14, 2002
Posts
84,223
Reaction score
32,835
It's about time to start hoarding cash. The market was due for a correction and the bounce should happen next week. After that, ugh...

It's still going to be a fragile market through EOY. Ebola, middle east, Germany and every thing else..

Yeah earnings are propping it up this week plus a bounce but I don't think the drop is over.

The Dow is about 1000 points off the recent highs but up about 250 as I type this today so that's great news. I have 3 IRA's, 2 of them are all cash save 2 stocks, the other is a mix of stocks and cash so it's still in the market and benefitting today.

With all the stuff going on, I'm sitting on the sideline for a few months.
 

MadCardDisease

Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
May 13, 2002
Posts
19,824
Reaction score
11,759
Location
Chandler, Az
I've been letting my 401K just ride and it has been growing very fast over the last 3 years. Got a broad mix of stocks and bonds. I'm seeing a 10.3% increase on my 401K investments this year. That's a $40k increase for just sitting and doing absolutely nothing.

I love compounding interest!
 
OP
OP
Russ Smith

Russ Smith

The Original Whizzinator
Supporting Member
Joined
May 14, 2002
Posts
84,223
Reaction score
32,835
I've been letting my 401K just ride and it has been growing very fast over the last 3 years. Got a broad mix of stocks and bonds. I'm seeing a 10.3% increase on my 401K investments this year. That's a $40k increase for just sitting and doing absolutely nothing.

I love compounding interest!

Yes, there's some analyst out there right now who claims people should be 100% stocks because over time it goes up so the only way to guarantee you don't miss the up times, is to be 100%.

I missed the 8% drop, I was all cash save 2 stocks, but then I have also missed much of the run up since then(the 2 stocks both ran up). So in this instance I didn't do well at all trying to time the market.

I think the one thing people miss is you have to go by amount of money gained or lost not %. The obvious example, you have 200K, the market drops 10%, you have lost 20K so you now have 180K. If the market goes up 10% now, that's only 18 K, you're still 2K short.

I'm still sitting on the sideline other than 2 stocks. In my work 401K I'm about 60% stock but it's a much smaller amount, my IRA's are mostly cash right now. I clearly should have gone back in the market when it dipped below 16K on the DOW that one day.
 

MadCardDisease

Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
May 13, 2002
Posts
19,824
Reaction score
11,759
Location
Chandler, Az
I'm still sitting on the sideline other than 2 stocks. In my work 401K I'm about 60% stock but it's a much smaller amount, my IRA's are mostly cash right now. I clearly should have gone back in the market when it dipped below 16K on the DOW that one day.

You are kind of old so you don't want it all in stock. ;)
 

Superbone

Phoenix native; Lifelong Suns Fan
Joined
Jul 31, 2005
Posts
5,885
Reaction score
2,843
Location
San Diego, CA
I've been letting my 401K just ride and it has been growing very fast over the last 3 years. Got a broad mix of stocks and bonds. I'm seeing a 10.3% increase on my 401K investments this year. That's a $40k increase for just sitting and doing absolutely nothing.

I love compounding interest!

That's the way to do it. I'm right there with you. Huge gains in the last few years. It's only going to go up in time. The DOW will hit 100,000 in the next 20 years.
 
OP
OP
Russ Smith

Russ Smith

The Original Whizzinator
Supporting Member
Joined
May 14, 2002
Posts
84,223
Reaction score
32,835
You are kind of old so you don't want it all in stock. ;)

Definitely true.

My biggest issue right now is I didn't currently do a good job on the stocks I am in on so they're down right now while the overall market is up.

I'm slightly down from when I went all cash because of those 2 stocks. In my simple IRA I'm mostly stock and I'm only up about 3% over that period because it had both the up, and the drop.

Now if we had this conversation 4 weeks ago, I was up on those 2 stocks 30-40% each and overall up more than 3%.
 

Superbone

Phoenix native; Lifelong Suns Fan
Joined
Jul 31, 2005
Posts
5,885
Reaction score
2,843
Location
San Diego, CA
I figured it would eventually correct and man has it, DOW was under 16K for awhile today. I sold my VTI yesterday just a slight loss on when I bought it.

And 8 months later it's at 18,000. Buy and hold, dudes.
 
OP
OP
Russ Smith

Russ Smith

The Original Whizzinator
Supporting Member
Joined
May 14, 2002
Posts
84,223
Reaction score
32,835
And 8 months later it's at 18,000. Buy and hold, dudes.

I made more in ICPT although I should have sold faster on that a few weeks ago.

I'm actually moving back into stocks moreso these days, not individual stocks for the most part just buying funds again.

I looked it up. What I sold in VTI at 96 is now worth 109. ICPT I made about 38% profit. Most of the money I had in ICPT, came from selling VTI, not all of it so hard to be exact but my guess is I made about twice as much in ICPT as if I had left it in VTI.
 
Last edited:

Superbone

Phoenix native; Lifelong Suns Fan
Joined
Jul 31, 2005
Posts
5,885
Reaction score
2,843
Location
San Diego, CA
I made more in ICPT although I should have sold faster on that a few weeks ago.

I'm actually moving back into stocks moreso these days, not individual stocks for the most part just buying funds again.

I looked it up. What I sold in VTI at 96 is now worth 109. ICPT I made about 38% profit. Most of the money I had in ICPT, came from selling VTI, not all of it so hard to be exact but my guess is I made about twice as much in ICPT as if I had left it in VTI.

Yeah, I stick to mostly index funds these days. I do have a few individual stocks just for fun. Check out Robinhood.com. They have no buying or selling fees for individual stocks.
 
OP
OP
Russ Smith

Russ Smith

The Original Whizzinator
Supporting Member
Joined
May 14, 2002
Posts
84,223
Reaction score
32,835
Yeah, I stick to mostly index funds these days. I do have a few individual stocks just for fun. Check out Robinhood.com. They have no buying or selling fees for individual stocks.

Yeah and let's be clear I don't normally make that much on one stock like I did with Intercept. I actually could have made 50 had I sold all of it when it crossed over 300 but I didn't.

Generally speaking funds are much safer than individual stocks. That was one where I strongly believed, and still do, that they are the only company out that that has a chance to get FDA approval for NASH. they're down now because the FDA approved their protocol for their Phase 3 study but the amount of participants and the 18 month trial length scared investors off. They are afraid the money will be there for 3 years before the study concludes. I finally decided "they" were right and sold the rest. If it gets below 200 I'd strongly consider buying in again, I think that has a chance to be a big profit stock and or an acquisition target.

There are always stocks that do that in biotech but getting the right one at the right time is highly risky.
 

BillsCarnage

ASFN Addict
Joined
Dec 2, 2005
Posts
5,827
Reaction score
1,196
Location
The Flip Side
what the heck happened to my 401k?? Thank you, China :(
It might be too late now and hopefully there is a bounce, but you could try moving to a fund that is closer, such as a 2020 type fund. These are less aggressive and you won't lose as much. A fund that has say a 2040 will be more aggressive, but the rewards are usually higher over time too.

However, if you have the $$ to invest now is the time.
 
Last edited:

Folster

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jun 23, 2005
Posts
15,839
Reaction score
6,064
It might be too late now and hopefully there is a bounce, but you could try moving to a fund that is closer, such as a 2020 type fund. These are less aggressive and you won't lose as much. A fund that has say a 2040 will be more aggressive, but the rewards are usually higher over time too.

However, if you have the $$ to invest now is the time.

If your time horizon is 2040, there is no reason to try to decrease your risk. Market timing rarely works. Study after study show us that constantly changing your allocation and engaging in market timing is a recipe for under performance.

Now if your time horizon is less than 10 years, then decreasing risk is not a bad idea assuming that you are currently at a high risk level.
 
OP
OP
Russ Smith

Russ Smith

The Original Whizzinator
Supporting Member
Joined
May 14, 2002
Posts
84,223
Reaction score
32,835
If your time horizon is 2040, there is no reason to try to decrease your risk. Market timing rarely works. Study after study show us that constantly changing your allocation and engaging in market timing is a recipe for under performance.

Now if your time horizon is less than 10 years, then decreasing risk is not a bad idea assuming that you are currently at a high risk level.

This is the classic case of that. If you were lucky enough to get out at 18K you're pretty happy now. If you didn't, trying to time it now is pointless, you will not guess right on when to take money out and when to put it back in.

I pulled out in the 18K area but then changed my mind and went back in. kicking myself now, but no way I'm going to double down and try to time the market now.
 

Staff online

Forum statistics

Threads
534,802
Posts
5,246,514
Members
6,273
Latest member
sarahmoose
Top