march 30, Can it get any worse for the Warriors?

sunsfn

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I have been trying since early am to get this to work.
I took off the around the league, so maybe it will work now.
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Can it get any worse for the Warriors?

By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford
Tuesday, March 30

Nov. 9, 1989: The Berlin wall falls.
Sept. 13, 1993: Yasser Arafat and Yitzhak Rabin shake hands on the White House lawn as part of the Oslo Peace Accords between Palestine and Israel.
March 23, 2004: Warriors GM Garry St. Jean calls NBA Insider Chad Ford, offering a truce.
There are some events in life that are too unexpected, too surreal to believe. Former enemies embracing. Cats and dogs living together. Peace where there had only been war.
When my phone rang last week and the caller on the other end said, "Chad, this is Garry St. Jean," I knew one of those moments was about to occur.



Garry St. Jean
For those of you new to Insider, a little history is in order. In the six-plus years I have been writing a daily column on the NBA, there has been no one I've killed in my column more than St. Jean and the Warriors. Donald Sterling and Cavs GM Jim Paxson have received their fair share of wrath, but no one has taken a beating quite like St. Jean and the Warriors.
I sat in stunned silence as St. Jean proposed opening up a "dialogue" about the problems the Warriors have faced.
St. Jean was affable, witty and had a real sense of humor about both the problems the team has encountered on his watch and the criticisms he's had to bear. Whatever your opinion is of St. Jean as a GM, there's no question he's a pretty decent human being.
St. Jean has been the good soldier for Warriors owner Chris Cohan for years. Folks around the league who have dealt with Cohan claim, without hesitation, he's the worst owner in the league. He's also the most reclusive. When he made a rare public appearance during the All-Star Game a few years ago, the rain of boos from the crowd drove him even further into hiding.
With Cohan sequestered, the smiling St. Jean has been left to weather the storm. The Warriors haven't been to the playoffs in 10 seasons. Seven of those have been under St. Jean's watch. Cap mismanagement, merciless cost-cutting and unforgivable mistakes have kept a promising team from ever competing. Rightly or wrongly, St. Jean has taken the brunt of the blame.
Moreover, he has done it with a smile and an eternal optimism that he still exudes even as speculation grows that he will lose his job this summer to special assistant Chris Mullin.
Last week, St. Jean's concern was about a column I wrote, reacting to a piece in the San Francisco Chronicle that claimed the team likely would fire head coach Eric Musselman this summer.
St. Jean hired Musselman and has been one of his biggest supporters. Obviously, the story pained him, and I believe, though he never overtly stated it, he didn't want his name mentioned in connection with a story about Musselman's demise.
When I asked St. Jean about his proudest moments with the Warriors, he ticked off the names of impressive draft picks like Jason Richardson, Troy Murphy, Gilbert Arenas, Mike Dunleavy, Jiri Welsch and Mickael Pietrus. He's right to be proud. The Warriors have drafted well the past few years.
What I didn't have the heart to say on the phone is that the only reason the Warriors landed those high-caliber players in the draft is because they consistently were among the worst teams in the league. Claiming lottery picks as your legacy is a double-edged sword.
Instead, what I believe to be St. Jean's best moment happened in the summer of 2002, when he hired an obscure Hawks assistant to be his head coach. Musselman's youthful exuberance led the Warriors to their most impressive season ever under St. Jean. Musselman gave Warriors fans hope for the first time in a long time. That counts for something.
Then came the summer of 2003, when Cohan and Mullin pulled the rug out from under both St. Jean and Musselman by not re-signing Gilbert Arenas and trading away the team's leading scorer (Antawn Jamison) and one of their brightest young players (Welsch) to bring in the worn and torn Nick Van Exel.



The Warriors have many problems, but coach Eric Musselman isn't one of them.
Cohan and crew smiled and claimed victory on the deal because of the cap space they saved. The irony wasn't lost on St. Jean that just 12 months earlier, it was he and Cohan who signed Jamison to the deal that, a year later, looked like poison.
St. Jean reluctantly admitted that giving Jamison the max, when he was worth only about half that, was among the moves he most regretted.
Still, St. Jean, ever the optimist, remained upbeat about the past and the future of the team.
"I think a lot of things have happened that have ruined our best laid plans," St. Jean said. "In sports, after all that you can do, you need a little bit of luck, and we haven't had that for a while."
There's some real truth to that. The Warriors finished with the league's worst record in 2002 and seemed in line to land one of the first two picks in the draft. The team had two needs that year -- center and point guard, and either of the top two players on the board, Yao Ming and Jay Williams, would've been perfect. But the ping-pong balls bounced the wrong way, and the Warriors ended up with the third pick. Had Yao ended up in Golden State, we'd be writing a different story right now.
Even last summer's stunning Jamison trade almost turned into a positive.
"I think, if we had stayed healthy this year, we would've been a playoff team," St. Jean said. In the midst of a seven-game winning streak, St. Jean and the Warriors can rightly wonder what would've been.
"No one wants to hear crying about injuries, but I think Eric's done a heck of a job with what he's had," St. Jean said, referring to a rash of injuries that has torpedoed the Warriors' season.
Troy Murphy, the team's leading rebounder last season, missed 50 games this season. Van Exel, for whom the Warriors traded Jamison, has missed 33 games and will be out the rest of the season. Speedy Claxton, the team's only other real point guard, has been out 17 games. Adonal Foyle, the team's second-best big man, has missed 38. Cliff Robinson, who averages a whopping four rebounds a game, is the team's starting power forward. Mike Dunleavy Jr., who couldn't guard his dad, has been the starting three most of the season.
Despite the setbacks, the team has seen Jason Richardson and Erick Dampier post career years. Robinson, Calbert Cheaney and Brian Cardinal have given more than anyone thought possible. The Warriors, if they win the games they should win down the stretch, should finish with around 37 to 38 victories this year with a much weaker roster.
The Warriors haven't "underachieved" this season, as team president Robert Rowell suggested last week. If anything, they've overachieved to an alarming degree in a much tougher Western Conference.
The future, however, is much fuzzier. The Warriors are on the verge of yet another front office shakeup. Their coach is reportedly on the chopping block. Their two centers can both file for free agency this summer and have given indications they don't want to return to Golden State.
Can the Warriors survive yet another tumultuous offseason? Here's a look at what to expect as Insider continues its summer blueprint series.
Warriors Summer Blueprint
DRAFT: Once again the Warriors are in the lottery. Like last year, they're looking at a late lottery pick. St. Jean told Insider he likes this year's draft, but like most GMs, he's aware the pitfalls are especially troublesome for a team like the Warriors.
"The draft has a lot of good young players, with the emphasis on young," St. Jean said. "The problem is, when you're a team that desperately wants to get out of the lottery and into the playoffs, you're looking for a player who can help get you over the hump. If he's not there, and he may not be there when we pick, you're forced to take a talented kid who needs time to develop."
The Warriors will be able to get a good player where they'll be drafting, but it's unlikely they'll get an impact player. The team has two long-term needs -- point guard and center. Point guards like Ben Gordon, Devean Harris or Sebastian Telfair should be available when they pick. Of the three, Harris is the most NBA ready. Telfair, though a couple of years away, has the upside and the sex appeal the Warriors desperately lack.
At center, a few young Euros like Kosta Perovic or Pavel Podkolzine could theoretically be available. More likely, they'll have their choice of guys like BYU's Rafael Araujo or Colorado's David Harrison. While both players have size, strength and talent, neither is projected as a star.
FREE AGENCY: Just about everything hinges on Dampier. If Dampier opts out of his deal (he can do it as early as June 15) and tells the Warriors he's gone, the team could be looking at as much as $9 million or $10 million in cap room this summer.


Erick Dampier
Center
Golden State Warriors

Profile



2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM
PPG
RPG
APG
FG%
FT%
72
12.4
11.9
0.8
.534
.654
Theoretically, the team should have the chops to lure a top-flight free agent to the Bay. Players like the climate and the city. San Francisco/Oakland is one of the biggest media markets in the NBA. What the team doesn't have is someone to recruit them. Mullin might be able to get the job done, but the Warriors are a tough sell -- especially if they don't have a coach.
What could $10 million in cap room buy them? Without Dampier, the team would have to try and replace him. The best big men on the market this summer are Mehmet Okur, Marcus Camby, Vlade Divac and Zeljko Rebraca. It's doubtful Divac will come. The Pistons are poised to match any offer for Okur. And Camby and Rebraca aren't upgrades over Dampier or Foyle.
The team could also use help at the point, and Steve Nash and Jamal Crawford are the two top prizes. It's unfathomable Nash would leave the Mavs for Golden State. Crawford could be a decent fit if the Warriors could get him at a bargain.
If Dampier doesn't opt out, or, if he works out a new deal with the Warriors, the cap room is gone until the summer of 2005, when players like Van Exel and Robinson come off the books.
St. Jean claims they want Dampier and Foyle back, if the price is right. Given the market, I wonder if Damp will really opt out. The other teams in the league with cap space this summer won't be willing to give him more than the $8.1 million he's scheduled to make next season. Damp's had an amazing season, but many GMs suspect his major motivation is a new contract. Once he's taken care of, how will he respond?
TRADES: This is where things can get interesting (or go horribly wrong) for the Warriors. They have a number of assets teams will be interested in. Several playoff teams made a strong push for Dampier last summer and during this year's trade deadline. He has trade value. There is also growing speculation Richardson may become expendable based on the solid play of Pietrus. While Richardson has had a great season, he's nowhere near the defender Pietrus is. On a defensively challenged team like Golden State, the defensive prowess Pietrus brings comes at a premium.
The team also has two tradable assets in Van Exel and Robinson, both of whom will be entering the last year of their contracts. If the team is willing to take back salary in return, a team trying to clear cap for the summer of 2005 could be interested.
Combine any of those pieces with their first-round pick this year, and the Warriors could be in business.
The bottom line for the Warriors is that they have a lot of nice young talent, but they still don't have a star who can lead them to the playoffs. I doubt anyone on the roster, including Dunleavy, is untouchable. At some point, St. Jean or Mullin is going to have to make a tough call and offer a combination of players they like for a guy who can lead.
St. Jean agrees. "I think you've got to really analyze that, and we have," St. Jean told Insider. "Is there some combination of players or picks that allows us to get a real superstar. Or, is he already on the roster and just hasn't developed yet? Either way, we need a guy like that to get to the next level."
All the talk about the Warriors competing for an eighth seed in the playoffs is nice. But the Warriors aren't even close to being at the same level with the Spurs, Kings, Lakers, Mavs or T-Wolves. That's because all of those teams have a superstar. The Warriors need theirs.
COACHING: It's a bit like beating a dead horse. All signs appear to be pointing toward Cohan or Mullin axing Musselman this summer. It's a huge mistake if they do it. You can hope against hope they're too cheap to eat the last year and $1.5 million of Musselman's deal, but that's not why they should keep him.
Musselman has proved he can get his team to play over its head. What would he do with a really good, healthy roster? I know some players have chafed at his style this year. You don't think Grizzlies players chafe occasionally at Hubie Brown's coaching in Memphis?
The difference between the two is Jerry West believes in Brown and has backed him 100 percent. He brought in the players Brown needed to be successful and won't tolerate player complaints about the coach. Every player in Memphis knows Brown is there as long as he wants to be. You either play his way or you sit. End of story.
In Golden State, Musselman's style doesn't go over as well, in part, because players know he doesn't have the full support of management. If the front office doesn't believe in you, why should the players? Players know when a coach is getting re-upped and see the signs on the wall as well as anyone.
It certainly wasn't lost on me that my first call in a long time from the Warriors came in response to an article in which I essentially praised their coach.
If they're not going to get behind Musselman, then everyone's better off if they fire him. Musselman will find a new job in a heartbeat, and Mullin or Cohan can bring in someone they believe in. If they could get their hands on a top coach like Jim O'Brien, I think they'll be forgiven pretty fast. If they replace Musselman with a retread or a rookie coach ... what was the point?
Coaching has been the one thing that has gone right for the Warriors the last two years. Why spoil it now?
FRONT OFFICE: You can fire the coach. You can fire the GM. You can even fire the players. Can you fire the owner?
Maybe Mullin is the guy to replace St. Jean. Maybe he has the power to get Cohan to spend money and avoid making stupid trades. Maybe he has what it takes to lift the curse from one of the NBA's most pathetic franchises.
I don't know Mullin well, but people in the league I respect think he'll make a good GM. What they aren't as sure about is why he's wasting his time in Golden State. If it's to be the mouthpiece for Cohan, his great reputation will be tarnished, much like St. Jean's, in a short period of time.
If he's going to be given the clout St. Jean wasn't ... maybe a new era is dawning in Golden State. The team finally has the tools, the financial flexibility, young talent and assets to make something happen. Will they make the most of it?
Peace is, in its very nature, a fragile thing. Dialogue can buy you time and modicum of trust. But it's the actions of the parties that ultimately decide whether peace can be lasting.
I'm waiting with bated breath.

:p
 

elindholm

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Why did St. Jean give this two-bit gossip columnist the time of day? That's a major error, as far as I'm concerned.
 

George O'Brien

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I would have to wonder how much of this piece was based on what St. Jean said and how much is just Chad being Chad. If it is mostly St. Jean, then it means he will be gone before draft day. No owner would put up with his GM going public on his problems with the owner if the GM expected to continue.
 

Chris_Sanders

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elindholm said:
Why did St. Jean give this two-bit gossip columnist the time of day? That's a major error, as far as I'm concerned.

Contrary to the World According to Eric, Chad Ford looks like he is fairly respected in NBA circles. It must be earth shattering for you to discover that as a music teacher, you don't know as much as a "two bit gossip columnist" that happens to cover the NBA for the biggest sports newcast in the world.
 

elindholm

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Contrary to the World According to Eric, Chad Ford looks like he is fairly respected in NBA circles.

Just out of curiosity, what is your evidence for this?

It must be earth shattering for you to discover that as a music teacher, you don't know as much as a "two bit gossip columnist" that happens to cover the NBA for the biggest sports newcast in the world.

Hmm. This sounds like the old "You can't criticize someone unless you could do it better" argument.

The question isn't whether Chad Ford knows more than I do. I should damn well hope he does. I'm not the one who makes a living writing about the NBA. The question is whether he knows as much as his posturing indicates. And here I'd guess the answer is no.

Factual errors in his "articles" are pointed out all the time, not just by me. And even you'd have to admit that some of his trade proposals are absolutely laughable -- a notch or two below the typical fare on this board.

If I were given Chad Ford's job, I wouldn't do a better job right away. I'd work hard to know what I was talking about, and then I wouldn't make up things without real evidence.

Don't you usually participate in the bashing of Peter Vecsey (which I also join in)? What puts Ford on a higher level than Vecsey? So far as I can see, nothing. But even Vecsey probably knows more than we do -- it is his job, after all.
 

F-Dog

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Did Chad Ford just compare himself to the Berlin Wall? :lol:


Ford's factual errors seem understandable enough to me; with the volume of garbage he has to churn out every week, the wonder is that there aren't more of them. His trades are usually laughable, but hey, where did it say that Insider's main basketball correspondent has to be smart?


Garry St. Jean is a bungler, plain and simple. Jamison over Vince Carter? JRich over Richard Jefferson? Dunleavy over Amare? (St. Jean is actually proud of that pick. :rolleyes: ) And on the business side, he wasn't able to clear the cap room to scare teams away from Gilbert Arenas, despite having less talent than any team in the West. I guess that's what happens when you break the bank for Danny Fortson...

After the Amare draft debacle, St. Jean finally learned something, and went after the BPA last year instead of drafting for need--this after how many years of running the Warriors into the ground, again? And, didn't their scouting system last year consist of following Jerry West around and trying to figure out which player West was going to pick?


Which is not to say that Mullin is any better, of course. It must suck to be a Warriors fan.

At least they know they'll have a shot at Yi JianLian someday.
 

George O'Brien

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F-Dog said:
And, didn't their scouting system last year consist of following Jerry West around and trying to figure out which player West was going to pick?

Considering that Jerry picked Troy Bell and Dahntay Jones, this was not the best strategy.
 

thegrahamcrackr

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F-Dog said:
And, didn't their scouting system last year consist of following Jerry West around and trying to figure out which player West was going to pick?

No, actually he folllows Tony Ranzone from the Pistons a lot. At least 1 trip per year. Tony is the top Euro scout in the league (at least from what I have read).

One thing you have to give Ford credit for is he does actually scout players instead of reading up on them. Almost all analysts are horrible, but Ford is definitely one of the better ones (the only person I like a little better from espn is Marc Stein, and it is more for his writing style than anything else).
 

Joe Mama

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thegrahamcrackr said:
No, actually he folllows Tony Ranzone from the Pistons a lot. At least 1 trip per year. Tony is the top Euro scout in the league (at least from what I have read).

One thing you have to give Ford credit for is he does actually scout players instead of reading up on them. Almost all analysts are horrible, but Ford is definitely one of the better ones (the only person I like a little better from espn is Marc Stein, and it is more for his writing style than anything else).

He was talking about St. Jean following Jerry West, not Chad Ford.

I think Chad Ford is much, much improved since his days with his own independent web site. A lot of his trade proposals are crazy, but they're not even in the same ballpark of lunacy as Sam Smith's. Considering who is out there covering the NBA I actually think Ford is one of the better ones. Just when I think David Aldridge is finally making some sense he says something that is beyond stupidity. Now that his son-in-law is out of Boston, Dr. Jack doesn't have a clue on anything regarding the NBA. I could go on and on.

Joe Mama
 

F-Dog

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George O'Brien said:
Considering that Jerry picked Troy Bell and Dahntay Jones, this was not the best strategy.

West picked after the Warriors, though.

IMO Dahntay Jones was West's fallback player, after he telegraphed his interest in Pietrus and got burned for it.
 

George O'Brien

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F-Dog said:
West picked after the Warriors, though.

IMO Dahntay Jones was West's fallback player, after he telegraphed his interest in Pietrus and got burned for it.

Interesting point. Pietrus was projected to go higher (probably Chicago) but when Williams was hurt the Bulls switched to Henrich. It was hardly a secret that West liked Pietrus, but it sure did not explain that weird trade for Bell and Jones - neither was expected to earlier than the last few picks of the first round. I can't remember a mock draft that had Jones in the first round at all.
 

F-Dog

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George O'Brien said:
Interesting point. Pietrus was projected to go higher (probably Chicago) but when Williams was hurt the Bulls switched to Henrich. It was hardly a secret that West liked Pietrus, but it sure did not explain that weird trade for Bell and Jones - neither was expected to earlier than the last few picks of the first round. I can't remember a mock draft that had Jones in the first round at all.

Well, since you twisted my arm... ;) ...this is how I figure it went down:


West targeted Pietrus and Troy Bell before the draft. If you look at the teams that were drafting from 11-15, none of them needed another swing player--they all needed PGs and/or power players instead. So, West figured he could trade down with Boston and still get Pietrus at #16, and he would be sure of getting Bell at #20 instead of having to sweat out the end of the first round, when Bell might be the highest-rated PG left.

When the Warriors took Pietrus instead of a PG, West was completely screwed. #16 was now too high for Bell, and #20 was waaay too high for Dahntay Jones, but it was too late to go back and scout Josh Howard at that point. :p


Of course, the aftermath was that West signed James Posey in free agency and traded for Bonzi Wells, so even Howard would be welded to the Grizzlies bench at this point. It's possible that Jones has something, but nobody's going to see it while he's wearing a Grizzlies uniform...I wonder whether his agent has spoken to the Bobcats recently...
 

George O'Brien

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F-Dog said:
It's possible that Jones has something, but nobody's going to see it while he's wearing a Grizzlies uniform...I wonder whether his agent has spoken to the Bobcats recently...

It is generally accepted that the Grizzlies are certain to lose someone in expansion. The have 11 guys under guaranteed contracts (plus Dickerson who will retire), two RFA's, one team options (Wells) and only one free agent - Mike Miller.
 

Joe Mama

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George O'Brien said:
It is generally accepted that the Grizzlies are certain to lose someone in expansion. The have 11 guys under guaranteed contracts (plus Dickerson who will retire), two RFA's, one team options (Wells) and only one free agent - Mike Miller.

I'm almost positive Mike Miller signed an extension.

Joe Mama
 
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