Let's talk about trading down...

TheCardFan

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We have been burned before but that isn't a good enough reason to not do it again. Different players, different time, different humans making decisions, and potentially a different outcome.

I don't think I have ever been in the trade down fan club...until this year. Here is my thought process:
  • Young, Okudah, and most likely Simmons will be gone (if Simmons is there, you take him)
  • DEEP draft at OT and WR...the two positions we keep debating
  • No consensus on #1 OT or WR with several options
  • We don't have a 2nd round pick - very valuable in a talented draft
  • The guy we like at #8 could also be there are #10, #12, and maybe #16
The key point in all drafts is taking the best player.

Ozzie Newsome was not only an amazing GM but he was one hell of a draft strategist. Here is an article about getting Lamar Jackson with

Peter King of NBC’s Football Morning in America talked to Ravens General Manager Eric DeCosta about the process of the 2018 NFL Draft that produced their future.

With the top names at the position going in the top 10, the Ravens knew they liked the Louisville quarterback, but thought they could move down.

It did, and they dealt the 16th pick to Buffalo for 22 and 65.

“We get to 22, and all of the players we liked are still there,” DeCosta said. “So we traded again.”

They moved 22 to the Titans for 25 and 125, but then used the 25th pick on South Carolina tight end Hayden Hurst, before trading back to the 32nd pick to get Jackson, giving the Eagles their 2019 second-rounder to move back up. That was not without some nervousness, but DeCosta said he and Newsome had kept their interest in Jackson largely to themselves.

“We didn’t even interview Lamar at the combine because we didn’t want to be associated with him. We didn’t want rumors about us and him to start. They didn’t. We were proud of that. So we pick him, and to hear him talk, and to hear his emotion and to see Lamar on TV with Deion Sanders, so happy, and to see his conviction, and to see his competitiveness. That’s a powerful thing. So, after the pick was announced, we hadn’t even had the chance to tell the scouts and coaches.

“And I think it’s probably the first time in my 24 years that you could hear cheering outside the draft room. You could hear the coaches and you could hear the scouts. That was a powerful moment for us.”

And one that changed a franchise.


The info below is a bit older but has a lot of info on trading up/down in 1st round. Unless we are 100% sure there is a guy at #8 that won't drop and will be a sure fire starter/pro bowler for the next 5-10 years...I think we trade down this year.

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football karma

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good news:

10 CLE (wants its choice of OT)
11 NYJ (want its choice of OT or WR)
12 LVR (wants its choice of WR)
14 TB (one year TB SB run, wants its choice of OT)
15 DEN (Wants a top WR)
16 ATL (needs a top Def player)
17 DAL (Jerruh)

each of the above has a rational reason to trade up to get somebody, a history of being aggressive to get somebody, or both.

if you assume 3 QBs go in the top 17 -- it doesn't take many unforeseen draft decisions in the top 17 for a player we have all been considering at #8 to be there at #17.
 

Dr. Jones

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good news:

10 CLE (wants its choice of OT)
11 NYJ (want its choice of OT or WR)
12 LVR (wants its choice of WR)
14 TB (one year TB SB run, wants its choice of OT)
15 DEN (Wants a top WR)
16 ATL (needs a top Def player)
17 DAL (Jerruh)

each of the above has a rational reason to trade up to get somebody, a history of being aggressive to get somebody, or both.

if you assume 3 QBs go in the top 17 -- it doesn't take many unforeseen draft decisions in the top 17 for a player we have all been considering at #8 to be there at #17.
Who out of these teams has extra 2nds and thirds?
 

Southpaw

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One of the QBs from the following list will be available @ #8.

Tua
Love
Herbert

Teams with QB needs and are below draft order of Cards
Pats
Jags
Colts
Steelers
Raiders
 

football karma

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Who out of these teams has extra 2nds and thirds?

as an testament to what ive been doing while social distancing:

CLE has an extra 3rd (97)
NYJ has an extra 3rd (68)
LVR has two extra 3rds (81, 91)
TB -- no extra picks
DEN has two extra 3rd (83, 95)
ATL has an extra 4th (143)
DAL- no extra picks
 

football karma

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my draft trade down / totally unrealistic scenario for the Cards:

Burrow / Young / Tua / Okudah / Simmons / Brown / Herbert go in top 7.

at #8, all four OTs and three WRs sit there.

NYJ wants a given OT and needs to get ahead of CLE. Give up #68 to do so. NYJ takes OT1

CLE takes OT2

DEN wants a given WR, and knows they need to get ahead of AFC West rival LV and SF to get the one they want. Its expensive, but they give up both 83 and 95 to get their guy. DEN takes WR1

LVR takes WR2
SF takes either WR3 or CJ Henderson,CB
TB takes OT3

ATL wants either Kinlaw, or, Chaisson. Knows DAL is calling AZ for the same, so they give up #143 to move up 1 spot. They take one of those.

AZ at 16 takes OT4

AZ now has 4 3rd round picks and 3 4th round picks. the 3 extra 3rds and 2 extra 4ths are packaged to move up into the 2nd round. Should be able to turn those into 2 2nd rounders in the back half of the round

of course, every single one of those picks are really good players, Steve Keim is hailed as a genius, and the Cards win the next 6 SBs in a row.
 

Dr. Jones

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I don't trust Keim to do the right thing later in the 1st and with extra picks. Stay in the top 10 and have a better chance at an impact player, please. AT MOST, move down a few spots and pick up a 3rd. Take Simmons if he's there at #8, obviously.
This is where I'm at. We just can't trust Keim to make the right decision IMO.

Especially if one of these 4 are there:
Young
Okudah
Simmons
Wills
 

DevonCardsFan

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Keim cant draft, he needs the gimme slam dunk picks or you will wind up with trash. Keim is horrible at picking. Take best player available or get stuck with Troy Niklaus and other losers. Maybe 1 or 2 spots other than that, do not get cute. Look at these stellar draft classes hahahahahaha Steve Keim can strike out an entire draft.

Trade Downs gets you skillet hands and Pace, over Terrell Suggs and drafting for need gets you Levi Brown over Adrian Peterson. Just say No! Keim draft skills are bad, he will blow the entire draft getting cute he is farrrrrr from Ozzie Newsome.

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SoonerLou

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I kinda want to trade down, but the Keim factor scares me.
We have been burned before but that isn't a good enough reason to not do it again. Different players, different time, different humans making decisions, and potentially a different outcome.

I don't think I have ever been in the trade down fan club...until this year. Here is my thought process:
  • Young, Okudah, and most likely Simmons will be gone (if Simmons is there, you take him)
  • DEEP draft at OT and WR...the two positions we keep debating
  • No consensus on #1 OT or WR with several options
  • We don't have a 2nd round pick - very valuable in a talented draft
  • The guy we like at #8 could also be there are #10, #12, and maybe #16
The key point in all drafts is taking the best player.

Ozzie Newsome was not only an amazing GM but he was one hell of a draft strategist. Here is an article about getting Lamar Jackson with

Peter King of NBC’s Football Morning in America talked to Ravens General Manager Eric DeCosta about the process of the 2018 NFL Draft that produced their future.

With the top names at the position going in the top 10, the Ravens knew they liked the Louisville quarterback, but thought they could move down.

It did, and they dealt the 16th pick to Buffalo for 22 and 65.

“We get to 22, and all of the players we liked are still there,” DeCosta said. “So we traded again.”

They moved 22 to the Titans for 25 and 125, but then used the 25th pick on South Carolina tight end Hayden Hurst, before trading back to the 32nd pick to get Jackson, giving the Eagles their 2019 second-rounder to move back up. That was not without some nervousness, but DeCosta said he and Newsome had kept their interest in Jackson largely to themselves.

“We didn’t even interview Lamar at the combine because we didn’t want to be associated with him. We didn’t want rumors about us and him to start. They didn’t. We were proud of that. So we pick him, and to hear him talk, and to hear his emotion and to see Lamar on TV with Deion Sanders, so happy, and to see his conviction, and to see his competitiveness. That’s a powerful thing. So, after the pick was announced, we hadn’t even had the chance to tell the scouts and coaches.

“And I think it’s probably the first time in my 24 years that you could hear cheering outside the draft room. You could hear the coaches and you could hear the scouts. That was a powerful moment for us.”

And one that changed a franchise.


The info below is a bit older but has a lot of info on trading up/down in 1st round. Unless we are 100% sure there is a guy at #8 that won't drop and will be a sure fire starter/pro bowler for the next 5-10 years...I think we trade down this year.

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Ozzie's protege thinks you can find a starting wr in the 5th round.
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...-a-starting-wideout-in-fifth-round-this-year/

I think Keim probably doesnt even trust his instincts (lets be honest...no Kliff I don't see Keim taking Kyler at 1) so he'll just take the BPA or top OT at 8.

Would love to trade down cause we need a lot...but just not sure about Keim.
 
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