Kyler Murray Debate Thread

[Stout]

I’m a little teapot short and stout

Hey, I'm not short, but I am "stout"

 

[DaHilg]

Only eight of the top 15 passing offenses (DET, TB, MIN, BAL, BUF, LARM, GB, KC) made the playoffs last year.

Eleven of the top 15 defenses (LAC, PHI, DEN, KC, MIN, GB, DET, PIT, BAL, BUF, HOU) made the playoffs last year, including nine of the top 10 defenses.

I’m all for defense as depending on how we are quantifying top passing offenses (yards?) we could have a lot of garbage yard teams in that “top 15” passing offenses. I think this reference overall is meaningless.. flip 1-3 of those 19 teams and you’re basically even. But even more so, if it’s quantified by total passing yards or attempts then this is a relatively futile comparison.

 

[Shane]

WATCH: Arizona Cardinals Get Work in at USC Ahead of Training Camp

Arizona Cardinals training camp is set to begin in less than two weeks. The Cardinals will be aiming to produce their first playoff season since 2021, and they

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Great to see Murray doing this. However, it is super disappointing that only Marvin Harrison Jr, Trey McBride, and Higgins joined him. That's a terrible look for Wilson especially

I mean call me crazy but isn’t that him front left??? Unless I’m wrong he clearly attended. He may not have stayed the whole time having a new baby? I’d actually say it’s even more of a plus considering he made the time with a new infant @ home.

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[kerouac9]

I’m all for defense as depending on how we are quantifying top passing offenses (yards?) we could have a lot of garbage yard teams in that “top 15” passing offenses. I think this reference overall is meaningless.. flip 1-3 of those 19 teams and you’re basically even. But even more so, if it’s quantified by total passing yards or attempts then this is a relatively futile comparison.

I mean, what metric would you prefer? “We need more passing yards to make the playoffs” seems to have an obvious proof point.

 

[kerouac9]

Great chart:

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h/t MatchQuarters

 

[SECTION 11]

I’m a little teapot short and stout

Here are my nachos,
This is my trout.

 

[oaken1]

Great chart:

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h/t MatchQuarters

Shows pretty clearly that Trey and JC were the preferred targets.
Also shows clearly that kyler has overcome his aversion to throwing over the middle.
Good chart.

 

[DaHilg]

I mean, what metric would you prefer? “We need more passing yards to make the playoffs” seems to have an obvious proof point.

Amount of passing yards certainly don’t dictate the best passing offenses in the nfl…take a look at jamesis Winston’s best years as a prime reference. This is why your chosen metric holds little water.

What metric should you use to gauge this? Probably one with several variables… but to say a Geno Smith or Brock Purdy had a more successful passing offense than Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Matt Stafford, etc just bc they had more “yards” is absurd.

 

[BritCard]

For the most part, yes. The defense has the ability to make the biggest strides and therefore the biggest impact. MHJ being a "true WR1" would help the offense in a lot of ways, but it would be less impactful.

I slightly disagree with this. The defense overperformed so has the biggest risk of staying where they were if the additional talent only counterbalances the rest of the defense returning to par. We had a bottom 10 talent defense last year, probably bottom 6, but was something like 15th in DVOA and mid teens to late teens in many metrics.

The offense was supposed to be much better last year, but played below its talent level. Especially the passing game. So I think the offense has the most room to improve.

 

[BritCard]

Shows pretty clearly that Trey and JC were the preferred targets.
Also shows clearly that kyler has overcome his aversion to throwing over the middle.
Good chart.

I think that's a little misleading.

These passes are not "over" the middle by and large. The sub 10 yard check downs are often through gaping chasms in the line. Short over the middle throws are most difficult for a short QB. I'd guess nearly all these never passed over a lineman's head.

 

[BritCard]

Amount of passing yards certainly don’t dictate the best passing offenses in the nfl…take a look at jamesis Winston’s best years as a prime reference. This is why your chosen metric holds little water.

What metric should you use to gauge this? Probably one with several variables… but to say a Geno Smith or Brock Purdy had a more successful passing offense than Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Matt Stafford, etc just bc they had more “yards” is absurd.

generally speaking most yards equals the best passing offenses, with a small minority of identifiers as you identified.

 

[oaken1]

I think that's a little misleading.

These passes are not "over" the middle by and large. The sub 10 yard check downs are often through gaping chasms in the line. Short over the middle throws are most difficult for a short QB. I'd guess nearly all these never passed over a lineman's head.

So what? They are between the hashmarks..that is in fact over the middle. A couple years back we were bashing the kid because over 80 percent of his passes were outside the hashmarks.
Who gives a crap if he throws it over a linemans head? I certainly dont. In fact, I would prefer he conduct himself like a professional quarterback and find a throwing lane.

 

[Chopper0080]

I slightly disagree with this. The defense overperformed so has the biggest risk of staying where they were if the additional talent only counterbalances the rest of the defense returning to par. We had a bottom 10 talent defense last year, probably bottom 6, but was something like 15th in DVOA and mid teens to late teens in many metrics.

The offense was supposed to be much better last year, but played below its talent level. Especially the passing game. So I think the offense has the most room to improve.

I don't necessarily think the offense played below it's talent level, it just played slow. 22nd in the NFL in offensive snaps per game at 60.9. 19th in seconds per play. 11th in rushing attempts per game. 8th in rushing 1st down %. 17th in yards per pass attempt. 21st in yards per completion. 18th in pass yards per game.

(Side note. Only 4 of the 14 playoff teams in 2024 were in the bottom 16 of NFL teams in passing yards per game)

The Cardinals are just a conservative and slow offense which will tend to underwhelm if it continues. That doesn't mean it can't be productive. Until that philosophy changes, it will be on the defense to get the offense more snaps per game by getting off the field quicker.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

The Cardinals are just a conservative and slow offense which will tend to underwhelm if it continues. That doesn't mean it can't be productive. Until that philosophy changes, it will be on the defense to get the offense more snaps per game by getting off the field quicker.

It's also incumbent on the offense (QB mostly) not turning it over as well. When you're playing so conservatively, it's even harder to overcome mistakes because the quick strike just isn't in your arsenal.

I was really hoping the Cards would strategically open things up, but between doing nothing substantively to fortify the OL/WR room, the path to improvement basically becomes Kyler being better. In year 7, I'm skeptical.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

The other issue in having zero deep threat between QB and WR is that defenses know that you can't beat them over the top, so they'll keep safeties in to help in the intermediate zones and clog up the offense further.

Zay Jones ain't gonna be scaring any safeties into playing back.

 

[Stout]

It's also incumbent on the offense (QB mostly) not turning it over as well. When you're playing so conservatively, it's even harder to overcome mistakes because the quick strike just isn't in your arsenal.

I was really hoping the Cards would strategically open things up, but between doing nothing substantively to fortify the OL/WR room, the path to improvement basically becomes Kyler being better. In year 7, I'm skeptical.

Any offense with aspirations of not just making the playoffs but winning there must have the deep ball in their arsenal. IDGAF if they're a run-first offense or not, without at least the threat of the chunk play through the air, the offense will severely hamper the team.

Hopefully Marv will progress and Kyler will return to his slinging ways and we can get back to being able to go long.

 

[kerouac9]

I slightly disagree with this. The defense overperformed so has the biggest risk of staying where they were if the additional talent only counterbalances the rest of the defense returning to par. We had a bottom 10 talent defense last year, probably bottom 6, but was something like 15th in DVOA and mid teens to late teens in many metrics.

The offense was supposed to be much better last year, but played below its talent level. Especially the passing game. So I think the offense has the most room to improve.

It's very weird to submit an opinion "defense overperformed/bottom 6 in talent" and then use that to dispute an objective metric.

They are who their record says they are. It's okay early in the season to say this was an under-equipped defense from a talent perspective, because there's no evidence to back that up. At the end of the season you're just disputing facts because they're inconvenient to your point.

I think that's a little misleading.

These passes are not "over" the middle by and large. The sub 10 yard check downs are often through gaping chasms in the line. Short over the middle throws are most difficult for a short QB. I'd guess nearly all these never passed over a lineman's head.

Yeah. Only having like four passes in the middle seam basically tells opponents that they don't have to defend this space at all.

generally speaking most yards equals the best passing offenses, with a small minority of identifiers as you identified.

Yeah. I sorted for team passer rating, and the results were more what @DaHilg wanted them to be, but IMO that stat overindexes for TDs. We finished middle of the league in Red Zone percentage, 14th in total TDs (42, same as KC). There were 12 teams who scored 40-47 TDs, which seems about the same to me. The next tier up is 52-59, which would be near the top 5.

Would love to have us score one more TD every other game/two more TDs every three games and get to that level.

The Cardinals are just a conservative and slow offense which will tend to underwhelm if it continues. That doesn't mean it can't be productive. Until that philosophy changes, it will be on the defense to get the offense more snaps per game by getting off the field quicker.

Yeah. 6.4 plays per drive was #4 in the NFL last year. 5.9 Yards per play was #7. 21st in total plays, 32nd in total drives.

Crazy stats.

 

[Crimson Warrior]

Any offense with aspirations of not just making the playoffs but winning there must have the deep ball in their arsenal. IDGAF if they're a run-first offense or not, without at least the threat of the chunk play through the air, the offense will severely hamper the team.

Hopefully Marv will progress and Kyler will return to his slinging ways and we can get back to being able to go long.

Yeah if we're very good at being a run-first, ball control offense, and can grind out wins like this, that's great. I'm totally fine with that.

But like you say, if we're going to make a serious run this year, there are bound to be situations where we need to score quickly.

I didn't see we had that capability last year, and I think it's a legit issue.

 

[oaken1]

Yeah if we're very good at being a run-first, ball control offense, and can grind out wins like this, that's great. I'm totally fine with that.

But like you say, if we're going to make a serious run this year, there are bound to be situations where we need to score quickly.

I didn't see that we had that capability last year, and I think it's a legit issue.

I think we will see a pretty solid improvement in that area.
While Trey Benson may be the only potential home run hitter on the offense, with Marv improving and building chemistry with kyler, it's not unrealistic to expect kyler, Marv, and McBride to combine for a 6 or 7 play 75 yard scoring drive in under a minute of game time.
That's explosive enough.

 

[Russ Smith]

IMO we don't even need a Roy Green or Mel Gray level deep threat, just a pre health issues John Brown type threat would be enough to take the offense to another level

 

[SECTION 11]

IMO we don't even need a Roy Green or Mel Gray level deep threat, just a pre health issues John Brown type threat would be enough to take the offense to another level

Man he had a run. That was a blast.

 

[oaken1]

IMO we don't even need a Roy Green or Mel Gray level deep threat, just a pre health issues John Brown type threat would be enough to take the offense to another level

Or a Stevie Breaston.

 

[Chopper0080]

IMO we don't even need a Roy Green or Mel Gray level deep threat, just a pre health issues John Brown type threat would be enough to take the offense to another level

Maybe...some of the issue is Kyler has to be willing to either stand in the pocket longer to let deep routes manifest or look for chunk plays when he rolls out of the pocket. Busted converges happen but a QB needs to ready to hit them when they do. He also has some splits that he should be able to improve which would help out the offense. (none of this is to say he wouldn't benefit from better WRs)

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[Russ Smith]

Maybe...some of the issue is Kyler has to be willing to either stand in the pocket longer to let deep routes manifest or look for chunk plays when he rolls out of the pocket. Busted converges happen but a QB needs to ready to hit them when they do. He also has some splits that he should be able to improve which would help out the offense. (none of this is to say he wouldn't benefit from better WRs)

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100% he has to be better. I'm just saying there is nobody on the current WR roster that has proven they can threaten an NFL defense deep. The best game MHJ had last year was the Rams game which was more like 1 quarter against a team missing 3 starters in their secondary. At one point 4 of their top 6 DB"s were hurt in that game.

I think it's asking too much to expect MHJ to be the #1 WR AND the guy who takes the top off the defense but I don't see another guy on the roster with that potential. Dortch is a possession Wr, WIlson can win contested jump ball throws but he doesn't really get open deep. Brown was just one of those guys who was both quick and fast and could get separation deep, a guy like that would elevate this offense IMO

 

[Chris_Sanders]

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