AZ Native
Living is Easy with Eyes Closed
I wanted to run on the field and tackle him.
Kyler Murray Debate Thread
- Thread starter Chris_Sanders
- Start date
coming from the upper deck you would have had a better shot at him than our defense that day, lol.
cardinals2025
Veteran
NFL EPA Tiers | nfelo.app
NFL Expected Point Added (EPA) Tiers with Historical Context
www.nfeloapp.com
About EPA Tiers
EPA tiers plot teams by their offensive (x-axis) and defensive (y-axis) performance as measured by EPA / Play.The grey tier lines create comparisons across teams. Teams on the same line are "equal" and expected to perform similarly on a forward looking basis. Because offensive performance is more predictive than defensive performance, these lines have a slope greater than 1 (1.6).
The tiers themselves represent the historical distribution of teams against the league average (median). For instance, a team at the "p90" line would be better than 90% of teams in any given year.
You must be registered for see images attach
You must be registered for see images attach
You must be registered for see images attach
(thanks to grok.ai for this detailed analysis)
Kyler Murray's Performance: Last 5 Games vs. Earlier Games (2020-2024)
To answer your query, I’ve analyzed Kyler Murray’s performance in the last five games of each season from 2020 to 2024 and compared it to his performance in the earlier games of those seasons. The focus is on key quarterback statistics: passer rating, completion percentage, passing yards per game, touchdown-to-interception (TD/INT) ratio, and, where available, rushing stats. Since Murray missed games in some seasons, the analysis considers only the games he played within these periods. The data is derived from season summaries and game logs provided in the conversation history.
Methodology
- Seasons: 2020-2024
- Game Splits:
- Last 5 Games: Games 12-16 (2020), Games 13-17 (2021-2024) — based on the team’s schedule, with stats from games Murray played.
-Earlier Games: Games before the last five (Games 1-11 for 2020, Games 1-12 for 2021-2024) — stats from games Murray played.
- Metrics: Passer rating, completion %, yards/game, TD/INT ratio, rushing yards and TDs.
Season-by-Season Breakdown
2020 Season (Played All 16 Games)
- Earlier Games (Games 1-11):
- Passer Rating: 98.9
- Completion %: 66.7%
- Yards/Game: 254.5
- TD/INT Ratio: 12 TD / 8 INT (1.5)
- Rushing: 50.4 yards/game, 0.4 TD/game
- Last 5 Games (Games 12-16):
- Passer Rating: 100.3
- Completion %: 66.7%
- Yards/Game: 264.0
- TD/INT Ratio: 8 TD / 3 INT (2.67)
- Rushing: 57.6 yards/game, 0.8 TD/game
- Comparison:
- Passing: Slight improvement in passer rating (98.9 → 100.3), yards/game (254.5 → 264.0), and TD/INT ratio (1.5 → 2.67).
- Rushing: Notable increase in yards (50.4 → 57.6) and TDs (0.4 → 0.8).
- Observation: Murray’s performance improved in the last five games, especially as a rusher, contributing to a 5-3 second-half record.
2021 Season (Played 14 Games, Missed Games 10-13)
- Earlier Games (Games 1-9):
- Passer Rating: 112.0
- Completion % : 72.3%
- Yards/Game: 251.0
- TD/INT Ratio: 15 TD / 5 INT (3.0)
- Rushing: 13.5 yards/game, 0.38 TD/game
- Last 5 Games (Games 13-17, Played Games 14-17: 4 games):
- Passer Rating: 88.5
- Completion %: 66.5%
- Yards/Game: 296.5
- TD/INT Ratio: 9 TD / 5 INT (1.8)
- Rushing: 52.5 yards/game, 0.5 TD/game
- Comparison:
- Passing: Decline in passer rating (112.0 → 88.5), completion % (72.3% → 66.5%), and TD/INT ratio (3.0 → 1.8), but yards/game increased (251.0 → 296.5).
- Rushing: Significant jump in yards (13.5 → 52.5) and TDs (0.38 → 0.5).
- Observation: Passing efficiency dropped after returning from injury, but increased rushing helped maintain a 4-2 record in games played.
2022 Season (Played 11 Games, Missed Games 12-17)
- Earlier Games (Games 1-11):
- Passer Rating: 87.0
- Completion %: 65.8%
- Yards/Game: 246.4
- TD/INT Ratio: 12 TD / 6 INT (2.0)
- Rushing: 36.6 yards/game, 0.25 TD/game
- Last 5 Games (Games 13-17, Played None):
- Murray did not play due to injury (ACL tear in Game 12).
- Comparison:
- No data for the last five games. In the 11 games played, his passer rating was 87.0, with the team struggling (4-7 record).
2023 Season (Played 8 Games, Games 10-17)
- Earlier Games (Games 1-12, Played None):
- Murray missed the first nine games recovering from injury.
- Last 5 Games (Games 13-17, Played All 5):
- Passer Rating: 89.4
- Completion %: 65.7%
- Yards/Game: 228.6
- TD/INT Ratio: 10 TD / 4 INT (2.5)
- Rushing: 26.4 yards/game, 0.6 TD/game
- Comparison:
- No earlier games for comparison. In the last five, he showed late improvement (113.7 passer rating in Weeks 16-17), contributing to a 3-5 record.
2024 Season (Played All 17 Games)
- Earlier Games (Games 1-12):
- Passer Rating: 93.8
- Completion %: 68.7%
- Yards/Game: 238.0
- TD/INT Ratio: 9 TD / 6 INT (1.5, estimated)
- Rushing: 32.0 yards/game, 0.25 TD/game
- Last 5 Games (Games 13-17):
- Passer Rating: 94.9
- Completion %: 68.8%
- Yards/Game: 254.3
- TD/INT Ratio: 7 TD / 3 INT (2.33)
- Rushing: 35.1 yards/game, 0.4 TD/game
- Comparison:
- Passing: Slight uptick in passer rating (93.8 → 94.9), yards/game (238.0 → 254.3), and TD/INT ratio (1.5 → 2.33).
- Rushing: Modest increase in yards (32.0 → 35.1) and TDs (0.25 → 0.4).
- Observation: Consistent performance with slight improvement.
Overall Trends
- 2020: Improved slightly in passing and significantly in rushing in the last five games.
- 2021: Passing efficiency declined, but rushing surged, maintaining competitiveness.
- 2022: No data for the last five games due to injury; earlier performance was subpar.
- 2023: Only played the last eight games, with passing and team performance improving late (Weeks 16-17).
- 2024: Consistent passing with marginal gains in both passing and rushing in the last five games.
Conclusion
Kyler Murray’s performance in the last five games of each season from 2020 to 2024, compared to the earlier games, varies by year:
- Improvement: In 2020 and 2024, he showed slight improvement in passing and rushing, despite close losses for the team.
- Decline: In 2021, his passing efficiency dropped significantly, though increased rushing mitigated the impact.
- Incomplete Data: In 2022, he missed the last five games, and in 2023, he only played the latter part, improving late.
The notion of second-half struggles stems largely from 2021, but it’s not a consistent trend. Murray often maintained or enhanced his performance late in seasons when healthy, with his dual-threat ability playing a key role. Injuries and team context heavily influenced outcomes in years with missed games.
Performance Statistics in November and December
Kyler Murray, drafted first overall in 2019, has shown a pattern of declining performance as the NFL season progresses into November and December. While exact game-by-game statistics over his entire career require comprehensive data access, we can synthesize trends based on widely observed patterns and available insights up to his career through the 2023 season.
- Win-Loss Record: Murray’s Cardinals tend to start seasons strongly but falter late. For instance, by aggregating his career through 2023, reports suggest a significant drop-off in winning percentage in November (around .400 or lower) and December (similarly below .500), compared to September and October, where his winning percentage often exceeds .600. This indicates a clear late-season struggle.
- Passing Stats: In earlier months, Murray typically posts higher passer ratings (e.g., 90-100+), with solid completion percentages (65-70%) and yards per game (250-300). In November and December, these numbers often dip—completion rates may fall to 60-63%, yards per game decrease, and interceptions increase relative to touchdowns, reflecting reduced efficiency.
- Rushing Stats: A dual-threat quarterback, Murray’s rushing prowess (averaging 5-6 yards per carry and 40-50 yards per game career-wide) is a key asset. However, late in the season, his rushing yards per game tend to decline (e.g., 30-40 yards), possibly due to fatigue, injury, or defensive adjustments.
Comparison to Earlier Months
The contrast between Murray’s early-season and late-season performance is stark:
- September/October: High energy, effective dual-threat play, and a fresher offensive scheme lead to more wins and better stats.
- November/December: A noticeable decline in both passing accuracy and rushing output suggests either physical wear, strategic predictability, or external pressures
Defensive Support
The Cardinals’ defensive performance provide context for Murray’s record:
- Defensive Performance(points allowed per game and league ranking):
- 2019: 27.6 points (28th) – Poor defense.
- 2020: 22.9 points (13th) – Decent support.
- 2021: 21.5 points (11th) – Solid support, coinciding with an 11-6 record and playoffs.
- 2022: 26.4 points (31st) – Among the league’s worst.
- 2023: 27.1 points (31st) – Again, bottom-tier.
- 2024: 22.3 points (15th) – Average. 31st in time of possession.
In 3 seasons (2019, 2022, 2023), the Cardinals’ defense ranked in the bottom third of the league, offering little support, while in 2020 and 2024, it was just decent or average. The exception was 2021, when a top-11 defense paired with Murray’s best season led to a playoff berth. This suggests that with adequate support, Murray can elevate the team to success, while in other years, the poor defense dragged the record down despite his efforts.
2. Quality of Opponents:
- The NFC West, Murray’s division, features tough late-season matchups against teams like the San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, and Los Angeles Rams. These teams often peak late, with strong defenses that adapt to Murray’s improvisational style, limiting his effectiveness.
Comparison to Peers
To evaluate further, we can compare Murray to quarterbacks who faced similar defensive challenges:
- Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers, 2020-2024):
- Defensive Rankings: Often below average (e.g., 30th in 2021, 24th in 2023).
- Passer Ratings: 93.2 to 99.1 – Comparable to Murray’s.
- QBR: 60.8 to 68.3 – Similar range to Murray’s.
- Murray’s edge comes from his rushing stats, which Herbert doesn’t match, enhancing his overall impact.
- Derek Carr (Las Vegas Raiders, 2019-2023):
- Defensive Rankings: Consistently poor (e.g., 30th in 2020, 28th in 2022).
- Passer Ratings: Declined in later years (e.g., 86.3 in 2022, 91.1 in 2023).
- QBR: 50.1 to 66.1 – Lower than Murray’s in tough years.
- In 2022 and 2023, with bottom-tier defenses (31st), Murray posted 87.2 and 94.9 passer ratings and 49.8 and 62.4 QBRs, outperforming Carr’s 86.3 and 91.1 ratings and 50.1 and 55.6 QBRs.
Murray’s ability to maintain stronger numbers in similar or worse defensive contexts indicates he’s overachieved relative to expectations.
Advanced Metrics and Team Offense
- Offensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average): This metric adjusts for opponent strength and shows the Cardinals’ offense under Murray has been above average most years:
- 2020: 7.2% (10th)
- 2021: 12.5% (7th)
- 2022: -5.3% (22nd) – A down year.
- 2023: 3.1% (14th)
- 2024: 5.8% (12th)
- Despite defensive struggles, Murray has kept the offense competitive, often ranking in the top half of the league.
Additional Challenges
Murray has faced
- An inconsistent offensive line, increasing pressure and sacks.
- Coaching and organizational instability, which can hinder performance.
His resilience is in maintaining above-average stats amid all these issues.
Attachments
cardinals2025
Veteran
I will be back when we clinch playoffs. Have a good year everyone 
You must be registered for see images attach
About QB Elo
QB Elo Value is a measure and prediction of QB value from 538's Elo model. It uses traditional stats (yards, completions, TDs, etc) to model ESPN's QBR then normalizes that value to be on the same scale as the Elo model. Think of QB Elo Value as QBR, but not on a 0-100 scale.Cummulative QB Elo Value is the sum of a QB's performance across their career (Elo / Game * number of games). This number is a great way to quantify the total value a QB contributed across their career.
Because passing stats have inflated overtime, making comparisons across era require us to adjust the Elo numbers. This is done by looking at QB's Elo value in a given week relative to the league average QB performance at that point of time. You can read more about this methodology here.
You must be registered for see images attach
kerouac9
Klowned by Keim
Mods can we please put this in the Kyler Murray debate thread?
blindseyed
I'm saying you ARE stuck in Wichita
Oh my gosh another drawn out thread that no one is going to read??? Lol
BirdGangThing
Murd Watcher
xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2005
- Posts
- 46,592
- Reaction score
- 12,538
While I like the analysis and effort, I see no reason why this shouldn't be a part of the debate thread. Merging.
BirdGangThing
Murd Watcher
NFL EPA Tiers | nfelo.app
NFL Expected Point Added (EPA) Tiers with Historical Context
About EPA Tiers
EPA tiers plot teams by their offensive (x-axis) and defensive (y-axis) performance as measured by EPA / Play.
The grey tier lines create comparisons across teams. Teams on the same line are "equal" and expected to perform similarly on a forward looking basis. Because offensive performance is more predictive than defensive performance, these lines have a slope greater than 1 (1.6).
The tiers themselves represent the historical distribution of teams against the league average (median). For instance, a team at the "p90" line would be better than 90% of teams in any given year.
You must be registered for see images attach
You must be registered for see images attach
You must be registered for see images attach
(thanks to grok.ai for this detailed analysis)
Kyler Murray's Performance: Last 5 Games vs. Earlier Games (2020-2024)
To answer your query, I’ve analyzed Kyler Murray’s performance in the last five games of each season from 2020 to 2024 and compared it to his performance in the earlier games of those seasons. The focus is on key quarterback statistics: passer rating, completion percentage, passing yards per game, touchdown-to-interception (TD/INT) ratio, and, where available, rushing stats. Since Murray missed games in some seasons, the analysis considers only the games he played within these periods. The data is derived from season summaries and game logs provided in the conversation history.
Methodology
- Seasons: 2020-2024
- Game Splits:
- Last 5 Games: Games 12-16 (2020), Games 13-17 (2021-2024) — based on the team’s schedule, with stats from games Murray played.
-Earlier Games: Games before the last five (Games 1-11 for 2020, Games 1-12 for 2021-2024) — stats from games Murray played.
- Metrics: Passer rating, completion %, yards/game, TD/INT ratio, rushing yards and TDs.
Season-by-Season Breakdown
2020 Season (Played All 16 Games)
- Earlier Games (Games 1-11):
- Passer Rating: 98.9
- Completion %: 66.7%
- Yards/Game: 254.5
- TD/INT Ratio: 12 TD / 8 INT (1.5)
- Rushing: 50.4 yards/game, 0.4 TD/game
- Last 5 Games (Games 12-16):
- Passer Rating: 100.3
- Completion %: 66.7%
- Yards/Game: 264.0
- TD/INT Ratio: 8 TD / 3 INT (2.67)
- Rushing: 57.6 yards/game, 0.8 TD/game
- Comparison:
- Passing: Slight improvement in passer rating (98.9 → 100.3), yards/game (254.5 → 264.0), and TD/INT ratio (1.5 → 2.67).
- Rushing: Notable increase in yards (50.4 → 57.6) and TDs (0.4 → 0.8).
- Observation: Murray’s performance improved in the last five games, especially as a rusher, contributing to a 5-3 second-half record.
2021 Season (Played 14 Games, Missed Games 10-13)
- Earlier Games (Games 1-9):
- Passer Rating: 112.0
- Completion % : 72.3%
- Yards/Game: 251.0
- TD/INT Ratio: 15 TD / 5 INT (3.0)
- Rushing: 13.5 yards/game, 0.38 TD/game
- Last 5 Games (Games 13-17, Played Games 14-17: 4 games):
- Passer Rating: 88.5
- Completion %: 66.5%
- Yards/Game: 296.5
- TD/INT Ratio: 9 TD / 5 INT (1.8)
- Rushing: 52.5 yards/game, 0.5 TD/game
- Comparison:
- Passing: Decline in passer rating (112.0 → 88.5), completion % (72.3% → 66.5%), and TD/INT ratio (3.0 → 1.8), but yards/game increased (251.0 → 296.5).
- Rushing: Significant jump in yards (13.5 → 52.5) and TDs (0.38 → 0.5).
- Observation: Passing efficiency dropped after returning from injury, but increased rushing helped maintain a 4-2 record in games played.
2022 Season (Played 11 Games, Missed Games 12-17)
- Earlier Games (Games 1-11):
- Passer Rating: 87.0
- Completion %: 65.8%
- Yards/Game: 246.4
- TD/INT Ratio: 12 TD / 6 INT (2.0)
- Rushing: 36.6 yards/game, 0.25 TD/game
- Last 5 Games (Games 13-17, Played None):
- Murray did not play due to injury (ACL tear in Game 12).
- Comparison:
- No data for the last five games. In the 11 games played, his passer rating was 87.0, with the team struggling (4-7 record).
2023 Season (Played 8 Games, Games 10-17)
- Earlier Games (Games 1-12, Played None):
- Murray missed the first nine games recovering from injury.
- Last 5 Games (Games 13-17, Played All 5):
- Passer Rating: 89.4
- Completion %: 65.7%
- Yards/Game: 228.6
- TD/INT Ratio: 10 TD / 4 INT (2.5)
- Rushing: 26.4 yards/game, 0.6 TD/game
- Comparison:
- No earlier games for comparison. In the last five, he showed late improvement (113.7 passer rating in Weeks 16-17), contributing to a 3-5 record.
2024 Season (Played All 17 Games)
- Earlier Games (Games 1-12):
- Passer Rating: 93.8
- Completion %: 68.7%
- Yards/Game: 238.0
- TD/INT Ratio: 9 TD / 6 INT (1.5, estimated)
- Rushing: 32.0 yards/game, 0.25 TD/game
- Last 5 Games (Games 13-17):
- Passer Rating: 94.9
- Completion %: 68.8%
- Yards/Game: 254.3
- TD/INT Ratio: 7 TD / 3 INT (2.33)
- Rushing: 35.1 yards/game, 0.4 TD/game
- Comparison:
- Passing: Slight uptick in passer rating (93.8 → 94.9), yards/game (238.0 → 254.3), and TD/INT ratio (1.5 → 2.33).
- Rushing: Modest increase in yards (32.0 → 35.1) and TDs (0.25 → 0.4).
- Observation: Consistent performance with slight improvement.
Overall Trends
- 2020: Improved slightly in passing and significantly in rushing in the last five games.
- 2021: Passing efficiency declined, but rushing surged, maintaining competitiveness.
- 2022: No data for the last five games due to injury; earlier performance was subpar.
- 2023: Only played the last eight games, with passing and team performance improving late (Weeks 16-17).
- 2024: Consistent passing with marginal gains in both passing and rushing in the last five games.
Conclusion
Kyler Murray’s performance in the last five games of each season from 2020 to 2024, compared to the earlier games, varies by year:
- Improvement: In 2020 and 2024, he showed slight improvement in passing and rushing, despite close losses for the team.
- Decline: In 2021, his passing efficiency dropped significantly, though increased rushing mitigated the impact.
- Incomplete Data: In 2022, he missed the last five games, and in 2023, he only played the latter part, improving late.
The notion of second-half struggles stems largely from 2021, but it’s not a consistent trend. Murray often maintained or enhanced his performance late in seasons when healthy, with his dual-threat ability playing a key role. Injuries and team context heavily influenced outcomes in years with missed games.
Performance Statistics in November and December
Kyler Murray, drafted first overall in 2019, has shown a pattern of declining performance as the NFL season progresses into November and December. While exact game-by-game statistics over his entire career require comprehensive data access, we can synthesize trends based on widely observed patterns and available insights up to his career through the 2023 season.
- Win-Loss Record: Murray’s Cardinals tend to start seasons strongly but falter late. For instance, by aggregating his career through 2023, reports suggest a significant drop-off in winning percentage in November (around .400 or lower) and December (similarly below .500), compared to September and October, where his winning percentage often exceeds .600. This indicates a clear late-season struggle.
- Passing Stats: In earlier months, Murray typically posts higher passer ratings (e.g., 90-100+), with solid completion percentages (65-70%) and yards per game (250-300). In November and December, these numbers often dip—completion rates may fall to 60-63%, yards per game decrease, and interceptions increase relative to touchdowns, reflecting reduced efficiency.
- Rushing Stats: A dual-threat quarterback, Murray’s rushing prowess (averaging 5-6 yards per carry and 40-50 yards per game career-wide) is a key asset. However, late in the season, his rushing yards per game tend to decline (e.g., 30-40 yards), possibly due to fatigue, injury, or defensive adjustments.
Comparison to Earlier Months
The contrast between Murray’s early-season and late-season performance is stark:
- September/October: High energy, effective dual-threat play, and a fresher offensive scheme lead to more wins and better stats.
- November/December: A noticeable decline in both passing accuracy and rushing output suggests either physical wear, strategic predictability, or external pressures
Defensive Support
The Cardinals’ defensive performance provide context for Murray’s record:
- Defensive Performance(points allowed per game and league ranking):
- 2019: 27.6 points (28th) – Poor defense.
- 2020: 22.9 points (13th) – Decent support.
- 2021: 21.5 points (11th) – Solid support, coinciding with an 11-6 record and playoffs.
- 2022: 26.4 points (31st) – Among the league’s worst.
- 2023: 27.1 points (31st) – Again, bottom-tier.
- 2024: 22.3 points (15th) – Average. 31st in time of possession.
In 3 seasons (2019, 2022, 2023), the Cardinals’ defense ranked in the bottom third of the league, offering little support, while in 2020 and 2024, it was just decent or average. The exception was 2021, when a top-11 defense paired with Murray’s best season led to a playoff berth. This suggests that with adequate support, Murray can elevate the team to success, while in other years, the poor defense dragged the record down despite his efforts.
2. Quality of Opponents:
Late-season games against playoff-caliber teams expose this weakness, putting more pressure on Murray to outscore opponents—a tall order when his offense sputters.
- The NFC West, Murray’s division, features tough late-season matchups against teams like the San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, and Los Angeles Rams. These teams often peak late, with strong defenses that adapt to Murray’s improvisational style, limiting his effectiveness.
Comparison to Peers
To evaluate further, we can compare Murray to quarterbacks who faced similar defensive challenges:
- Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers, 2020-2024):
- Defensive Rankings: Often below average (e.g., 30th in 2021, 24th in 2023).
- Passer Ratings: 93.2 to 99.1 – Comparable to Murray’s.
- QBR: 60.8 to 68.3 – Similar range to Murray’s.
- Murray’s edge comes from his rushing stats, which Herbert doesn’t match, enhancing his overall impact.
- Derek Carr (Las Vegas Raiders, 2019-2023):
- Defensive Rankings: Consistently poor (e.g., 30th in 2020, 28th in 2022).
- Passer Ratings: Declined in later years (e.g., 86.3 in 2022, 91.1 in 2023).
- QBR: 50.1 to 66.1 – Lower than Murray’s in tough years.
- In 2022 and 2023, with bottom-tier defenses (31st), Murray posted 87.2 and 94.9 passer ratings and 49.8 and 62.4 QBRs, outperforming Carr’s 86.3 and 91.1 ratings and 50.1 and 55.6 QBRs.
Murray’s ability to maintain stronger numbers in similar or worse defensive contexts indicates he’s overachieved relative to expectations.
Advanced Metrics and Team Offense
- Offensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average): This metric adjusts for opponent strength and shows the Cardinals’ offense under Murray has been above average most years:
- 2020: 7.2% (10th)
- 2021: 12.5% (7th)
- 2022: -5.3% (22nd) – A down year.
- 2023: 3.1% (14th)
- 2024: 5.8% (12th)
- Despite defensive struggles, Murray has kept the offense competitive, often ranking in the top half of the league.
Additional Challenges
Murray has faced
- An inconsistent offensive line, increasing pressure and sacks.
- Coaching and organizational instability, which can hinder performance.
His resilience is in maintaining above-average stats amid all these issues.
is this what broke the site last night
My point still stands.
kerouac9
Klowned by Keim
Yes we all agree that Patrick Mahomes is worse than Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff this is a very good and useful tool thank for sharing it I’m surprised I’ve never heard of it before I’m thoroughly ownedI will be back when we clinch playoffs. Have a good year everyone
You must be registered for see images attach
About QB Elo
QB Elo Value is a measure and prediction of QB value from 538's Elo model. It uses traditional stats (yards, completions, TDs, etc) to model ESPN's QBR then normalizes that value to be on the same scale as the Elo model. Think of QB Elo Value as QBR, but not on a 0-100 scale.
Cummulative QB Elo Value is the sum of a QB's performance across their career (Elo / Game * number of games). This number is a great way to quantify the total value a QB contributed across their career.
Because passing stats have inflated overtime, making comparisons across era require us to adjust the Elo numbers. This is done by looking at QB's Elo value in a given week relative to the league average QB performance at that point of time. You can read more about this methodology here.
You must be registered for see images attach
Lmao..sorry dude but you are blind.NFL EPA Tiers | nfelo.app
NFL Expected Point Added (EPA) Tiers with Historical Context
About EPA Tiers
EPA tiers plot teams by their offensive (x-axis) and defensive (y-axis) performance as measured by EPA / Play.
The grey tier lines create comparisons across teams. Teams on the same line are "equal" and expected to perform similarly on a forward looking basis. Because offensive performance is more predictive than defensive performance, these lines have a slope greater than 1 (1.6).
The tiers themselves represent the historical distribution of teams against the league average (median). For instance, a team at the "p90" line would be better than 90% of teams in any given year.
You must be registered for see images attach
You must be registered for see images attach
You must be registered for see images attach
(thanks to grok.ai for this detailed analysis)
Kyler Murray's Performance: Last 5 Games vs. Earlier Games (2020-2024)
To answer your query, I’ve analyzed Kyler Murray’s performance in the last five games of each season from 2020 to 2024 and compared it to his performance in the earlier games of those seasons. The focus is on key quarterback statistics: passer rating, completion percentage, passing yards per game, touchdown-to-interception (TD/INT) ratio, and, where available, rushing stats. Since Murray missed games in some seasons, the analysis considers only the games he played within these periods. The data is derived from season summaries and game logs provided in the conversation history.
Methodology
- Seasons: 2020-2024
- Game Splits:
- Last 5 Games: Games 12-16 (2020), Games 13-17 (2021-2024) — based on the team’s schedule, with stats from games Murray played.
-Earlier Games: Games before the last five (Games 1-11 for 2020, Games 1-12 for 2021-2024) — stats from games Murray played.
- Metrics: Passer rating, completion %, yards/game, TD/INT ratio, rushing yards and TDs.
Season-by-Season Breakdown
2020 Season (Played All 16 Games)
- Earlier Games (Games 1-11):
- Passer Rating: 98.9
- Completion %: 66.7%
- Yards/Game: 254.5
- TD/INT Ratio: 12 TD / 8 INT (1.5)
- Rushing: 50.4 yards/game, 0.4 TD/game
- Last 5 Games (Games 12-16):
- Passer Rating: 100.3
- Completion %: 66.7%
- Yards/Game: 264.0
- TD/INT Ratio: 8 TD / 3 INT (2.67)
- Rushing: 57.6 yards/game, 0.8 TD/game
- Comparison:
- Passing: Slight improvement in passer rating (98.9 → 100.3), yards/game (254.5 → 264.0), and TD/INT ratio (1.5 → 2.67).
- Rushing: Notable increase in yards (50.4 → 57.6) and TDs (0.4 → 0.8).
- Observation: Murray’s performance improved in the last five games, especially as a rusher, contributing to a 5-3 second-half record.
2021 Season (Played 14 Games, Missed Games 10-13)
- Earlier Games (Games 1-9):
- Passer Rating: 112.0
- Completion % : 72.3%
- Yards/Game: 251.0
- TD/INT Ratio: 15 TD / 5 INT (3.0)
- Rushing: 13.5 yards/game, 0.38 TD/game
- Last 5 Games (Games 13-17, Played Games 14-17: 4 games):
- Passer Rating: 88.5
- Completion %: 66.5%
- Yards/Game: 296.5
- TD/INT Ratio: 9 TD / 5 INT (1.8)
- Rushing: 52.5 yards/game, 0.5 TD/game
- Comparison:
- Passing: Decline in passer rating (112.0 → 88.5), completion % (72.3% → 66.5%), and TD/INT ratio (3.0 → 1.8), but yards/game increased (251.0 → 296.5).
- Rushing: Significant jump in yards (13.5 → 52.5) and TDs (0.38 → 0.5).
- Observation: Passing efficiency dropped after returning from injury, but increased rushing helped maintain a 4-2 record in games played.
2022 Season (Played 11 Games, Missed Games 12-17)
- Earlier Games (Games 1-11):
- Passer Rating: 87.0
- Completion %: 65.8%
- Yards/Game: 246.4
- TD/INT Ratio: 12 TD / 6 INT (2.0)
- Rushing: 36.6 yards/game, 0.25 TD/game
- Last 5 Games (Games 13-17, Played None):
- Murray did not play due to injury (ACL tear in Game 12).
- Comparison:
- No data for the last five games. In the 11 games played, his passer rating was 87.0, with the team struggling (4-7 record).
2023 Season (Played 8 Games, Games 10-17)
- Earlier Games (Games 1-12, Played None):
- Murray missed the first nine games recovering from injury.
- Last 5 Games (Games 13-17, Played All 5):
- Passer Rating: 89.4
- Completion %: 65.7%
- Yards/Game: 228.6
- TD/INT Ratio: 10 TD / 4 INT (2.5)
- Rushing: 26.4 yards/game, 0.6 TD/game
- Comparison:
- No earlier games for comparison. In the last five, he showed late improvement (113.7 passer rating in Weeks 16-17), contributing to a 3-5 record.
2024 Season (Played All 17 Games)
- Earlier Games (Games 1-12):
- Passer Rating: 93.8
- Completion %: 68.7%
- Yards/Game: 238.0
- TD/INT Ratio: 9 TD / 6 INT (1.5, estimated)
- Rushing: 32.0 yards/game, 0.25 TD/game
- Last 5 Games (Games 13-17):
- Passer Rating: 94.9
- Completion %: 68.8%
- Yards/Game: 254.3
- TD/INT Ratio: 7 TD / 3 INT (2.33)
- Rushing: 35.1 yards/game, 0.4 TD/game
- Comparison:
- Passing: Slight uptick in passer rating (93.8 → 94.9), yards/game (238.0 → 254.3), and TD/INT ratio (1.5 → 2.33).
- Rushing: Modest increase in yards (32.0 → 35.1) and TDs (0.25 → 0.4).
- Observation: Consistent performance with slight improvement.
Overall Trends
- 2020: Improved slightly in passing and significantly in rushing in the last five games.
- 2021: Passing efficiency declined, but rushing surged, maintaining competitiveness.
- 2022: No data for the last five games due to injury; earlier performance was subpar.
- 2023: Only played the last eight games, with passing and team performance improving late (Weeks 16-17).
- 2024: Consistent passing with marginal gains in both passing and rushing in the last five games.
Conclusion
Kyler Murray’s performance in the last five games of each season from 2020 to 2024, compared to the earlier games, varies by year:
- Improvement: In 2020 and 2024, he showed slight improvement in passing and rushing, despite close losses for the team.
- Decline: In 2021, his passing efficiency dropped significantly, though increased rushing mitigated the impact.
- Incomplete Data: In 2022, he missed the last five games, and in 2023, he only played the latter part, improving late.
The notion of second-half struggles stems largely from 2021, but it’s not a consistent trend. Murray often maintained or enhanced his performance late in seasons when healthy, with his dual-threat ability playing a key role. Injuries and team context heavily influenced outcomes in years with missed games.
Performance Statistics in November and December
Kyler Murray, drafted first overall in 2019, has shown a pattern of declining performance as the NFL season progresses into November and December. While exact game-by-game statistics over his entire career require comprehensive data access, we can synthesize trends based on widely observed patterns and available insights up to his career through the 2023 season.
- Win-Loss Record: Murray’s Cardinals tend to start seasons strongly but falter late. For instance, by aggregating his career through 2023, reports suggest a significant drop-off in winning percentage in November (around .400 or lower) and December (similarly below .500), compared to September and October, where his winning percentage often exceeds .600. This indicates a clear late-season struggle.
- Passing Stats: In earlier months, Murray typically posts higher passer ratings (e.g., 90-100+), with solid completion percentages (65-70%) and yards per game (250-300). In November and December, these numbers often dip—completion rates may fall to 60-63%, yards per game decrease, and interceptions increase relative to touchdowns, reflecting reduced efficiency.
- Rushing Stats: A dual-threat quarterback, Murray’s rushing prowess (averaging 5-6 yards per carry and 40-50 yards per game career-wide) is a key asset. However, late in the season, his rushing yards per game tend to decline (e.g., 30-40 yards), possibly due to fatigue, injury, or defensive adjustments.
Comparison to Earlier Months
The contrast between Murray’s early-season and late-season performance is stark:
- September/October: High energy, effective dual-threat play, and a fresher offensive scheme lead to more wins and better stats.
- November/December: A noticeable decline in both passing accuracy and rushing output suggests either physical wear, strategic predictability, or external pressures
Defensive Support
The Cardinals’ defensive performance provide context for Murray’s record:
- Defensive Performance(points allowed per game and league ranking):
- 2019: 27.6 points (28th) – Poor defense.
- 2020: 22.9 points (13th) – Decent support.
- 2021: 21.5 points (11th) – Solid support, coinciding with an 11-6 record and playoffs.
- 2022: 26.4 points (31st) – Among the league’s worst.
- 2023: 27.1 points (31st) – Again, bottom-tier.
- 2024: 22.3 points (15th) – Average. 31st in time of possession.
In 3 seasons (2019, 2022, 2023), the Cardinals’ defense ranked in the bottom third of the league, offering little support, while in 2020 and 2024, it was just decent or average. The exception was 2021, when a top-11 defense paired with Murray’s best season led to a playoff berth. This suggests that with adequate support, Murray can elevate the team to success, while in other years, the poor defense dragged the record down despite his efforts.
2. Quality of Opponents:
Late-season games against playoff-caliber teams expose this weakness, putting more pressure on Murray to outscore opponents—a tall order when his offense sputters.
- The NFC West, Murray’s division, features tough late-season matchups against teams like the San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, and Los Angeles Rams. These teams often peak late, with strong defenses that adapt to Murray’s improvisational style, limiting his effectiveness.
Comparison to Peers
To evaluate further, we can compare Murray to quarterbacks who faced similar defensive challenges:
- Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers, 2020-2024):
- Defensive Rankings: Often below average (e.g., 30th in 2021, 24th in 2023).
- Passer Ratings: 93.2 to 99.1 – Comparable to Murray’s.
- QBR: 60.8 to 68.3 – Similar range to Murray’s.
- Murray’s edge comes from his rushing stats, which Herbert doesn’t match, enhancing his overall impact.
- Derek Carr (Las Vegas Raiders, 2019-2023):
- Defensive Rankings: Consistently poor (e.g., 30th in 2020, 28th in 2022).
- Passer Ratings: Declined in later years (e.g., 86.3 in 2022, 91.1 in 2023).
- QBR: 50.1 to 66.1 – Lower than Murray’s in tough years.
- In 2022 and 2023, with bottom-tier defenses (31st), Murray posted 87.2 and 94.9 passer ratings and 49.8 and 62.4 QBRs, outperforming Carr’s 86.3 and 91.1 ratings and 50.1 and 55.6 QBRs.
Murray’s ability to maintain stronger numbers in similar or worse defensive contexts indicates he’s overachieved relative to expectations.
Advanced Metrics and Team Offense
- Offensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average): This metric adjusts for opponent strength and shows the Cardinals’ offense under Murray has been above average most years:
- 2020: 7.2% (10th)
- 2021: 12.5% (7th)
- 2022: -5.3% (22nd) – A down year.
- 2023: 3.1% (14th)
- 2024: 5.8% (12th)
- Despite defensive struggles, Murray has kept the offense competitive, often ranking in the top half of the league.
Additional Challenges
Murray has faced
- An inconsistent offensive line, increasing pressure and sacks.
- Coaching and organizational instability, which can hinder performance.
His resilience is in maintaining above-average stats amid all these issues.
Since you like research and long posts...look up kylers performance in clinching games.
Games that will win the division.
Games that clinch playoff seeding.
Games that clinch a playoff berth.
You will find that his stats only increased in late season Games because we had nothing to play for. No pressure because we had no chance to win the division...no chance to secure playoff seeding,...and no chance to secure a playoff berth...thus no pressure.
But in Games that really mattered Kyler Murray folded like a cheap lawn chair.
Then he went right into hero ball the moment the team was eliminated.
9 times.
That's why it's so important for this team to win often and early. It's also why so many of us are hoping this defense is as good as it looks on paper...because they will have to carry kyler over that hump.
Wow...when even Agamemnon is mocking you know it's gotta be rough
Outerlimits
Veteran
I can understand why Steeler fans are growing frustrated. This is the longest playoff win drought in franchise history.
The no losing seasons is impressive i agree. However, constantly being one and done in the postseason for almost a decade doesn't seem impressive to Steeler fans. Plus, they often seem poorly prepared and play terribly in those games.
Mike Tomlin...
Long may he reign
Stout
Hold onto the ball, Murray!
When they make the playoffs at all. At this point, the problem is that Tomlin prioritizes his streak over all else, including making the team good enough to win in the playoffs. He is so risk averse and full of himself and the "standard is the standard" that he will not change and it will not change. Even the owner is all "We're having some success here" and is happy to just keep running it back. They are in limbo and going nowhere fast.
blindseyed
I'm saying you ARE stuck in Wichita
It's funny because there's a few of us in the game day threads who would comment on the garbage time stats and how people would use it later to justify KMs play lol
cardinals2025
Veteran
The problem is the data is ignoring clutch stats, as you point out.
But there is no data when he has a superior coaching staff, a superior defense, superior team chemistry especially on offense, a superior mindset after an injury that took football away and a division that is in flux.
Kyler didn’t fold last year.
We lost to CAR 36-33
We were up vs MIN’s top 5 ranked defense 18-6
and
A ball went off Mcbrides helmet vs the Rams to prevent us sweeping them…A team we dominated 50-23 in pts last year.
You didn’t have fluke crap like this happening the last few year late in the season.
We beat NE and SF at home to finish with our best home record in years.
2024 was more positive than 2020 was when we went 8-8.
And we did not add this sort of talent in the 2020 offseason, not even close.
Stafford is absolutely clueless vs Rallis and the Rams have the toughest schedule in the division.
No one talks about how the Rams beat SF with Purdy 12-6 and then beat AZ 13-9 and then beat MIN in the playoffs 27-9.
Two of those games Stafford folded. But that is what happens when your defense makes plays. The QB gets bailed out and a bunch of cardinals fans who think they know context about Kyler’s late season struggles will not acknowledge even when a QB in the same divison plays worse but gets bailed out.
And lets not forget that Matt Prater missed two straight FGs which was the only way we lost to SEA in 2023, which would given Kyler a 4-4 record to finish the season.
But then we don’t have Marvin Harrison either. My point is there has been OBVIOUS improvement in the last two months of the season by Kyler in the last 2 years.
Our offensive line met its match vs SEA twice and yes it affected him and he deserves a TON of blame for those losses and the throws he made. But SEA is the exception to the role of the last 2 years late in the season. The entire team is playing better under Gannon than with Kingsberry. It is not even close and it will improve further this year just like our record has improved.
Stout
Hold onto the ball, Murray!
LOL Teflon Kyler. Nothing's ever his fault
Cardinals Expect Career Year From Kyler Murray
Big things are in store for Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray.
cardinals2025
Veteran
We would be 4-4 in 2023 with Kyler in the 2nd half of the season, if Prater made just one of his two consecutive missed fgs vs SEA.
But then we would not of had Marvin Harrison. What would the fan base rather have?
There is no evidence last year that Kyler underperformed in the 2nd half of the season besides the SEA games.
And EVERY NFC West QB, including Darnold and Geno, had as bad or worse of a game in the 2nd half of the season as Kyler had in SEA.
You have to strictly focus on the two SEA games to tell me the trend of Kyler struggling in the 2nd half continued in 2024. Because there are no other games where he played that bad.
ZERO. Purdy, Geno, Darnold and Stafford ALL had worse gms in the 2nd half of the season than Kyler had vs the Rams for instance.
In SEA, our offensive line got completely dominated and Connor got shut down. That doesn’t give Kyler an excuse, especially when our defense played well, but it explains why SEA was so different than other games. Then at home vs SEA, the entire team played bad, including the defense, not just Kyler. That said even if want to blame him for both SEA losses thats fine by me. But it is not enough to prove the trend continued.
It wasn’t like he was playing an ordinary defense and folded bc it was when we were trying to clinch the division. They shut down Connor in SEA and Kyler couldn’t adjust. We were not built to win last year without a running game. That is something that needs to change.
Last edited:
BirdGangThing
Murd Watcher
blindseyed
I'm saying you ARE stuck in Wichita
Apparently unless KM has an All Madden team surrounding him he can't do his thing and succeed lolLOL Teflon Kyler. Nothing's ever his fault
Has Monti tried putting an all-pro at every position on offense? Loser GM. I've done it in Madden 25. Easily, I might add.
Similar threads
Latest posts
-
-
-
-
-
Suns Off Season Changes for 2025: Trades, Buyouts, GM, Coaches, etc.
- Latest: BirdGangThing
-
-
-
-
Staff online
-
ShaneThis is my year! -
RoninCaptain obvious
-
Dback JonDoing it My Way -
Brian in MesaAdvocatus Diaboli