KFFL Article on Green and the Cards outlook:

KingofCards

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"KFFL Impact Report
Head Coach Dennis Green, Arizona Cardinals

After the dust settled in Arizona, following an improbable Week 17 victory over the Minnesota Vikings, then Arizona Cardinals head coach Dave McGinnis had but a brief moment to savor the win. The harsh reality of yet another losing season then set in fast and McGinnis was promptly relieved of his post. Cardinals' management then continued the task of finding a coach crazy enough to take over this fledgling club, and the search did not last long.

The announcement that Arizona had come to terms with ex-Minnesota Vikings head coach Dennis Green was a shock to the football world. The stunning part lies in the fact that Arizona has proven to be an organization unwilling to pay the kind of money a coach of Green's stature commands. In fact, they have become known for hiring second rate coaches - at least head coaching wise - that come at “bottom of the barrel” prices, making this move very compelling indeed.

None-the-less, Green accepted the offer and is now harnessed with the seemingly impossible task of bringing this club into the upper echelon of the NFL. This monumental undertaking will be a challenge even for the likes of Green, as the Cardinals have finished with a winning record in exactly one season since 1988.

So, in an attempt to do our best in looking at the potential fantasy impacts early in Green's tenure, let us dig in and dissect what he may bring.

Dennis Green - The Coach
In order to keep from boring you to death, we won't spend much time looking at every accomplishment that Green has garnered in his NFL career. Rather, we will highlight several important facts and cover a few of his strengths; then we will move on to the important section - the potential impact on Arizona's players.

What he accomplished with the Vikings:

Green took Minnesota to the playoffs in eight of the ten seasons he was there, and did so with seven different quarterbacks.
He reached the NFC Championship game twice.
Green amassed 101 wins with the Vikings - including postseason play.
He is one of only three head coaches to win 15 games in a single season.
Green holds the highest winning percentage in Minnesota's 40-year history.
When looking at the first stat, you can clearly see that Green's almost uncanny ability to work with QBs is one of his strongest suits, and is a huge reason behind his signing. You need to also understand that not only did he start seven different playoff QBs, he did so with guys that other teams had given up on - in some respects anyway.

Another thing to not be overlooked is his ability to win football games, which should translate into optimism from his new players. The fact they now have a proven and reliable head coach, as opposed to yet another hopeful that needs a learning curve, ought to motivate the Cardinals' players to perform.

One of Green's drawbacks worth noting, however, is his thirst to have complete control over personnel decisions. Now, the Cardinals have indicated that they have no problem with allowing him that luxury. Although, tempers are bound to flare up when control of an NFL team is involved, and this could be a factor in Green's long-term achievements in Arizona.

In addition, for those that do not know, Green has been an ESPN analyst over the past two seasons, with no team willing to give this somewhat stubborn head coach a shot. While there are many reasons that are too arduous to get into, Green could prove the best move Arizona has made in a long time.

Overall Outlook - Players/Positions to Watch:
Wow, tough questions to answer with the 2003 postseason not even completed. We will do our best to give an overall picture as to what Green's addition may do to this club in fantasy terms. Please remember that there is an entire offseason for the Cardinals to endure, as well as that little draft that the NFL holds in April.

So, these projections could very well change as Arizona and Green make changes to the player personnel, and the following months will indeed be intriguing to monitor. With a KFFL offseason sure to be packed with Impact and Strategy Reports on many players, watch for more in-depth analysis on some of the Cardinals' players in the future.

That being said, every indication leads you to think that Green's presence should be very positive, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The question then being: What players will he influence the most?

Quarterbacks
Consider the Cardinals QBs actually ranked middle of the pack, in the NFL, when looking at several important stats such as total passing yardage and touchdowns - through 2003. Where they were weak is in turnovers, with 21 INTs and six fumbles lost, as well as the 43 total times they were sacked; both stats ranking them in the bottom five of the league.

You can see then that Green has some positives to build around at QB while also having some concerns to address. The quarterback position should be the most compelling of all situations to watch, as Green's skillful touch with the QB could provide a solid fantasy producer down the road.

When speaking of the future, it is worthy to mention that Arizona is almost a lock to select either Ole' Miss QB Eli Manning or Miami (OH) QB Ben Roethlisberger in the coming rookie draft. Manning is the early favorite as he seems the safer pick of the two picks, coupled with the fact that his name could help increase those ticket sales.

QB Jeff Blake/QB Josh McCown

Neither Blake nor McCown has shown that they can win games on a consistent basis, something that Green will likely address quickly. Each also has an obviously different playing style while putting up somewhat similar stats in 2003 - in several categories anyway.

Table: QB Jeff Blake's Statistics - 2003 Gms Played Pass Yds Yds/Comp Comp Per. QB Rating TDs INTs Sacks
13 2252 10.8 56.5 69.5 15* 15 19


* Blake had 13 passing TDs and two rushing TDs.

Table: QB Josh McCown's Statistics - 2003 Gms Played Pass Yds Yds/Comp Comp Per. QB Rating TDs INTs Sacks
10 1018 10.7 57.6 70.7 6* 6 24


* McCown had five passing TDs and one rushing TD.

Even if the Cardinals draft a QB - and the chances are very high - either Blake or McCown will probably open the 2004 season as the team's starter. Rookie QBs do not generally fare well when thrown into the starting spot, and Green would surely want to give that player a chance to learn and grow with his system.

Now, who will start for Green when opening day of next season rolls around? That question is not easily answered, as Green will want to see how each picks up his playbook and performs in the preseason. Keep in mind that Green has had good success with QBs who have leapfrogged around the league, so he could be a very positive influence on Blake.

That being said, we have to give a slight advantage to Blake. A couple of quick reasons why. Keep in mind, Blake is entering the second season of a three-year deal. Blake is the veteran QB that has had mild success with his previous clubs. He also performed well at times this past season, although he did have some very poor games as well. One last thing that sticks out; Blake has a tendency to avoid pressure better than McCown, as McCown had two weeks in which he was sacked eight times per game.

Does that mean Blake would make a fantasy stud, and is he the long-term answer for Arizona? The answer to both is no, but Green could turn Blake into a decent fantasy option for 2004. As far as beyond 2004 - for you dynasty players - Blake is not a solid option, but a rookie drafted in the first round could very well be.

Where does that leave McCown? Well, he performed admirably in the closing games. Should he perform well in minicamps, and have a solid preseason, he has the possibility to grab the starting spot. McCown was certainly drafted with the hopes of being Arizona's future, but they have also made many mistakes in the past. With that, his progress through the next eight months will be critical to his chances as a 2004 producer.

Running Backs
The RB position in Arizona did not perform well at all throughout most the past season. In fact, the 2003 campaign saw the Arizona backs ranked 31st in the league in rushing yards, 32nd in combined yards from scrimmage, 29th in yards per carry and 32nd in runs that resulted in a first down. They also managed a feeble two rushing TDs on the year also ranking them last in the NFL - three behind the Detroit Lions RBs who managed five.

What is somewhat startling with the Arizona running game is that they are widely considered to have a solid offensive line. While they could have easily had better stats on the ground, the Cardinals also played much of the season from behind, requiring a reliance on the pass in an effort to catch up.

One other observation is Green's quasi-West Coast style of offense, which of course can hurt the RB position. However, because Green will inherit a solid O-line, maybe he will adapt his style to some extent.

RB Marcel Shipp/RB Emmitt Smith

The 2003 offseason signing of Smith was as much a ploy to attract ticket sales as it was to garner a 'stud' running back. The move failed in both accounts, as ticket sales did not increase as hoped and Smith had an injury-plagued season. On the other hand, Shipp had a couple of monster games and proved that he is capable of performing. He did end the season with more than one poor outing, and he was unable to find the end zone all year.

Take a look at the following tables to compare what each man accomplished for 2003.

Table: RB Marcel Shipp's Statistics - 2003 Gms Played Rush Yds Yds/Rush Rec Yds Rec. TDs 1st Down Runs Fum Lost
16 828 3.6 184 30 0 37 3


Table: RB Emmitt Smith's Statistics - 2003 Gms Played Rush Yds Yds/Rush Rec Yds Rec. TDs 1st Down Runs Fum Lost
10 256 2.8 107 14 2 15 0


In giving a prediction on who will start next year, we have to give a definite edge to Shipp. Not only is he nine years younger than Smith, he also put up better overall stats in 2003. There is also that possibility of a running back-by-committee approach, making Shipp somewhat less desirable. Again, the next few months should provide some clearer answers.

Wide Receivers
WR Anquan Boldin:

Table: WR Anquan Boldin's Statistics - 2003 Gms Played Rec Yds Rec. Yds/Rec Rec. TDs 1st Down Rec. Fum Lost
16 1377 101 13.6 14 8 62 3


You can surmise that an improvement of play at the QB position will flow over to the WR position. That lends itself to the question: Can Boldin really improve upon his tremendous performance in 2003? Maybe. Because he will have a target on his chest in 2004, another solid receiver would sure help relive some of that pressure; a fact that Green surely will not overlook.

A couple additional things to look at with Boldin, in fantasy terms:

Boldin was targeted in a total of 180 plays throughout the regular season, or just over 11 per game. Only two other WRs in the NFL were utilized in more of their teams' offense - Minnesota Vikings WR Randy Moss with 181 and St. Louis Rams WR Torry Holt with 190 - very lofty company that he enjoys in that arena.

His incredible rookie outing will no doubt bolster his value in next year's fantasy drafts. There is always that possibility that his worth may become somewhat over-inflated, especially when you look at the uncertainty surrounding this team for 2004.

WR Bryant Johnson:

Table: WR Bryant Johnson's Statistics - 2003 Gms Played Rec Yds Rec. Yds/Rec Rec. TDs 1st Down Rec. Fum Lost
15 438 35 12.5 14 1 20 1


Even being drafted ahead of fellow rookie Boldin, Johnson had nowhere near the statistics of his teammate. After looking at what he did in his first NFL season, there is no need to spend much time on Johnson's fantasy value. He may develop as a sleeper pick during 2004, but it's hard to envision him being drafted very high in most leagues.

The Cardinals' Defense:
What defense? The Cardinals version of a defense had a horrific 2003 showing, and was a major detriment to this organization. If you don't recall the stats, let's go over a few of the big ones:

They allowed a total of 390 offensive points (an average of 24 per game), which ranked them 30th.
They also ranked 30th in number of sacks produced with 20.
Arizona gave up 326 plays resulting in a first down for their opponent, which once again ranked them 30th.
They allowed opposing QBs an average passer rating of 93.7 - and you guessed it, that also ranked 30th in the league.
One final stat, they allowed a combined 54 scores (38 TDs/16 FGs) in the red zone, ranking them dead last.
When trying to determine what Green can do with the defense you should consider that while he was in Minnesota, the Vikings' defense averaged 17th in points allowed and 18th in total yardage allowed, through 10 years. Green is obviously an offensive minded coach, so whom he and the Cardinals hire as defensive coaches is key in improving this unit.

Moreover, the now departed McGinnis is a very solid defensive coach, and was Arizona's defensive coordinator prior to being promoted. With that fact, you really get a sense of how bad this unit is. On the bright side, you can safely assume that Green knows he needs a better defense to make this a playoff team. Don't expect them to be a top unit in 2004 though!"


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Duckjake

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Moreover, the now departed McGinnis is a very solid defensive coach

So much for this person's creditability. Nothing Mac ever did gave any indication that he was a solid defensive coach. His Cardinal defenses stunk it up every year. Before that he was the Bear's LB coach where his duties probably consisted promarily of patting Mike Singletary on the back as the Bear's MLB came off the field.
 

Pariah

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The stunning part lies in the fact that Arizona has proven to be an organization unwilling to pay the kind of money a coach of Green's stature commands. In fact, they have become known for hiring second rate coaches - at least head coaching wise - that come at “bottom of the barrel” prices, making this move very compelling indeed.

What they failed to say is that they gave Green a lucrative deal and appear to be changing their ways. This statement is misleading--it leads the reader to believe that Green took less money then market value to come to Arizona.
 

vince56

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Originally posted by KingofCards
One last thing that sticks out; Blake has a tendency to avoid pressure better than McCown, as McCown had two weeks in which he was sacked eight times per game.

That's just misleading. This person looked at stats, not the game. McCown was sacked more because #1 he held the ball too long, making decisions a little late, and #2 his OL was all 2nd squad guys (everyone remember Reggie wells being knocked on his ass by the Vikings OLBs?).

McCown is CLEARLY better at avoiding the rush, using Plummer-like moves to get out of holds and tackles and squirming outside to buy more time. Blake runs 2 feet and trips on blades of grass...sometimes even on astroturf as in the Dallas game.

This just seemed like a really odd & uneducated comment in the middle of a fairly good article.
 
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