Kentucky basketball vs Tennessee prediction, pick for 2025 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

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MILWAUKEE — After six long years — which likely felt more like a lifetime for the fan base — Kentucky basketball is back in the NCAA Tournament's Sweet 16. Illinois, the 6-seed in the Midwest Region, proved no match Sunday, as 3-seed UK notched a second-round win at Fiserv Forum.

It marks the Wildcats' first time advancing out of the opening weekend of March Madness since 2019. The results the next five years:

• A canceled tournament in 2020, a casualty of the coronavirus pandemic;
• Arguably the most forgettable UK season in modern history in 2021, going 9-16 overall, its worst record since a 3-13 campaign in 1926-27;
• A stunning loss in the first round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament, when 15-seed Saint Peter's upended the heavily favored 2-seed Kentucky, which boasted the unanimous national Player of the Year in Oscar Tshiebwe;
• Another opening-weekend exit in 2023, this time in the second round at the hands of Kansas State;
• And last year, yet another first-round shocker, as sharpshooter Jack Gohlke knocked down 10 3-pointers for 14th-seeded Oakland in a four-point win over UK in Pittsburgh — in what wound up being John Calipari's final game guiding the program after 15 seasons in Lexington.

All of that is in the past now, as the Wildcats and coach Mark Pope can look forward to a short trek to Indianapolis for the Sweet 16.

Kentucky's next foe is one it knows better than any in its history: Tennessee, the 2-seed in the region. UT is 29-7 this season. The Volunteers finished fourth in the SEC during the regular season with a 12-6 record. Tennessee brought home runner-up honors at the SEC Tournament in Nashville, advancing to the championship game after downing Texas in the quarterfinals and top-seeded Auburn in the semifinals; UT couldn't topple Florida in the final, however, losing 86-77.

Now, after victories over Wofford and UCLA — in the first and second round of the Big Dance, respectively, on UK's home floor at Rupp Arena — Tennessee is back in the Sweet 16 for the third straight season.

The Cats and Vols will face off Friday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Here's what to know about Kentucky's Sweet 16 matchup against Tennessee:

Tennessee still in search of elusive Final Four appearance​

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Tennessee long has been among the better programs in the country. But the Vols never have been truly great. At least where the NCAA Tournament is concerned.

That's because UT is one of the most successful programs in Division I that has yet to reach the Final Four.

The Volunteers are in the middle of their 27th March Madness appearance; the only programs with more that haven't advanced to the Final Four are BYU (32; still alive in this year's tournament), Xavier (30) and Missouri (29; does not include a vacated appearance in 1999).

UT has played in 57 games in the Big Dance; that trails only Xavier's 61 among schools without a Final Four banner.

And perhaps most frustrating for Tennessee and its fan base, it has 30 victories during March Madness. Yet again, that's second to Xavier's 31 for most by a program still seeking a Final Four berth.

The Volunteers aim to change their fortunes this year.

But they'll have to get through Kentucky, and either Houston or Purdue, to finally kick down the door to reach the most hallowed ground in the sport.

Tennessee coach in search of elusive national title​

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Much the same as the program he now presides over, Rick Barnes is among the best around.

But he's never been the best in the sport.

Barnes enters the Sweet 16 with 835 career wins, making him the winningest active coach in Division I. (It's tied with Calipari, who has 877 on-court wins after Saturday's triumph over Rick Pitino and St. John's; the NCAA has vacated 42 of Calipari's career victories, however.)

Barnes has made it to the Final Four just once: 2003, with Texas. He's never advanced to the national title game. And his March Madness shortcomings are well documented, as he's led mega-talented teams into the tournament countless times with little to show for it.

A few other Barnes-related statistics of note:

• He has 29 NCAA Tournament appearances, fourth most in D-I history (36 — Mike Krzyzewski, Duke; 35— Jim Boeheim, Syracuse; and 30 — Roy Williams, Kansas and North Carolina);
• Barnes has the most NCAA appearances without a national championship, three ahead of Bob Huggins (26);
• Barnes has coached in 60 games in the Big Dance, second most among active coaches who don't have a national title (Gonzaga's Mark Few is first with 69);
• Barnes' 32 March Madness wins are second most among active coaches without a national crown title (Few has 44 wins);
• Last but not least, among the winningest D-I coaches in history, only Huggins has more wins (863 at Division I level) without cutting down the nets after the final game of the season

Four more wins for Barnes, and he can, at long last, finish a season at the summit.

UT sharpshooting transfer Chaz Lanier sets program record in Year 1​

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Chaz Lanier might not have reached the dizzying heights of his predecessor, Dalton Knecht.

But Lanier still has made a mark of his own in his lone season in Knoxville.

During UT's second-round win over UCLA, he sank four 3-pointers. That upped his tally to 120 triples during the 2024-25 campaign. In the process, he surpassed sweet-shooting Chris Lofton's single-season school record in that category. Lofton made 118 3s during his senior season in 2007-08.

Lanier's total ranks sixth in the SEC's single-season annals.

Here's a look at the five ahead of him:

• 1. Bryce Brown, Auburn: 141 (2018-19)
• 2. Marshall Henderson, Ole Miss: 138 (2012-13)
• T3. John Jenkins, Vanderbilt: 134 (2011-12)
• T3. Shan Foster, Vanderbilt: 134 (2007-08)
• 5. Henderson, Ole Miss: 129 (2013-14)

Buy Kentucky NCAA Tournament tickets vs. Tennessee

Kentucky vs Tennessee prediction: March Madness Sweet 16​

Tennessee 82, Kentucky 78: Kentucky won both meetings during the regular season. But neither game was a rout. The Volunteers will be ultra motivated to ensure they don't go 0-3 versus the Wildcats this season. Not to mention UT's longtime quest to (finally) advance to the Final Four for the first time in program history. The site of this third matchup is a city that has inflicted its share of pain on Kentucky: Indianapolis. Where Wisconsin ended the 2015 team's perfect season. Where Duke pummeled Kentucky three years later in the most lopsided defeat of the Calipari era. Where Saint Peter's shocked the world three years ago, engineering a 15-over-2 upset against a UK club led by the unanimous national Player of the Year in Oscar Tshiebwe. Indianapolis is where the Wildcats' dreams will go to die again. And add another chapter of misery in a city that's been a nightmare for the program and its fan base the past decade. Like two boxers unwilling to give an inch, Kentucky and Tennessee will trade shots in this frenzied Sweet 16 showcase of the SEC. But the Vols will land the knockout blow, handing the Wildcats a season-ending four-point defeat at Lucas Oil Stadium.

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Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at [email protected] and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.



This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky vs Tennessee prediction, pick for March Madness Sweet 16

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