Josh Jackson update

[Western Font]

Had the Celtics worked out Jackson and picked him, with the Suns taking Tatum, I’m not so sure we wouldn’t be having a comparable conversation somehow. Yes the Suns whiffed on a bunch of picks, but they also failed to develop those picks, which weren’t lost causes. It reminds me of the years spent bemoaning players the Cards passed on in the 80s and 90s, who probably would have languished in AZ.

It’s early, but it feels different now for the Suns. To put it simply, all the players seem to have an idea of what to do with the ball when they get it.

 

[Mainstreet]

Had the Celtics worked out Jackson and picked him, with the Suns taking Tatum, I’m not so sure we wouldn’t be having a comparable conversation somehow. Yes the Suns whiffed on a bunch of picks, but they also failed to develop those picks, which weren’t lost causes. It reminds me of the years spent bemoaning players the Cards passed on in the 80s and 90s, who probably would have languished in AZ.

It’s early, but it feels different now for the Suns. To put it simply, all the players seem to have an idea of what to do with the ball when they get it.

The problem with keeping some of these players, the Suns would have to be paying players like Bender, Chriss and Jackson on their rookie scale contract. The Suns decided to spend the money elsewhere.

Other teams can pick these players up on minimum type contract so there really isn't any downside.

 

[JCSunsfan]

The problem with keeping some of these players, the Suns would have to be paying players like Bender, Chriss and Jackson on their rookie scale contract. The Suns decided to spend the money elsewhere.

Other teams can pick these players up on minimum type contract so there really isn't any downside.

You cannot develop that many young players at once. You have to choose which young players to keep.

 

[Mainstreet]

You cannot develop that many young players at once. You have to choose which young players to keep.

This is true but if the Suns hit on these players they would still be in a Suns uniform and the Suns would be really good.

 

[Hoop Head]

The problem with keeping some of these players, the Suns would have to be paying players like Bender, Chriss and Jackson on their rookie scale contract. The Suns decided to spend the money elsewhere.

Other teams can pick these players up on minimum type contract so there really isn't any downside.

Rookie contracts have gone up considerably over the last decade or so. The #1 pick in 2009 made $4.15 million in year 1. The #1 pick in 2019 makes $8.13 million. That jump has caused teams like the Suns to be in a situation where they need to decide whether to pay their lottery pick for their 3rd or 4th option years or use that money on free agents. By that point, in the 3rd or 4th year, the contracts have increased to rival the mid-level exception. For year 3 the #1 pick from the 2019 draft will make $8.9 million a year.

If a player hasn't shown much by then, do you gamble that they'll turn it on in year 3 or 4 or sign a veteran or two for the same amount? The Suns situation isn't all that unique either in regards to not picking up 3rd or 4th year options on 1st round picks, they're just who we all follow the closest.

I get that rookie deals count against the cap but that also keeps bad teams bad because they're paying substantial money to unproven talent. I wish there was some sort of uniform cap hit for all 1st round picks. Only count their real salary if they're being traded.


ETA: The salary numbers I mentioned about the rookie scale contracts were pulled from RealGM. It's also worth noting that those numbers are the base requirements. Teams are allowed to sign rookies for a little more than that, they can offer 80% of the set rookie scale salary or up to 120%. Most of the time players are signed for the 120% of the required scale amount. Of course that increases the players salary a good amount, especially in the 3rd and 4th years. I found this info from the Larry Coon's CBA FAQ about rookie scale figures. It shows what the 3rd and 4th year costs will be for 1st round picks over the last 3 years.

 

[Mainstreet]

Rookie contracts have gone up considerably over the last decade or so. The #1 pick in 2009 made $4.15 million in year 1. The #1 pick in 2019 makes $8.13 million. That jump has caused teams like the Suns to be in a situation where they need to decide whether to pay their lottery pick for their 3rd or 4th option years or use that money on free agents. By that point, in the 3rd or 4th year, the contracts have increased to rival the mid-level exception. For year 3 the #1 pick from the 2019 draft will make $8.9 million a year.

If a player hasn't shown much by then, do you gamble that they'll turn it on in year 3 or 4 or sign a veteran or two for the same amount? The Suns situation isn't all that unique either in regards to not picking up 3rd or 4th year options on 1st round picks, they're just who we all follow the closest.

I get that rookie deals count against the cap but that also keeps bad teams bad because they're paying substantial money to unproven talent. I wish there was some sort of uniform cap hit for all 1st round picks. Only count their real salary if they're being traded.


ETA: The salary numbers I mentioned about the rookie scale contracts were pulled from RealGM. It's also worth noting that those numbers are the base requirements. Teams are allowed to sign rookies for a little more than that, they can offer 80% of the set rookie scale salary or up to 120%. Most of the time players are signed for the 120% of the required scale amount. Of course that increases the players salary a good amount, especially in the 3rd and 4th years. I found this info from the Larry Coon's CBA FAQ about rookie scale figures. It shows what the 3rd and 4th year costs will be for 1st round picks over the last 3 years.

For the most part, players start to develop in years 1-2. Enough so teams start to figure out if they want to keep them on the ever increasing rookie scale contract. It's so hard to let a draft pick go early but as you say, their rookie scale contracts during year 3 or 4 approach the mid-level exception.

Letting go of Bender, Chriss and Jackson was painful. So much was expected from them. It's hard for a GM to change gears. This may be one of the reasons Ryan McDonough is no longer here is because the Suns front office wanted to clean house. McDonough wanted to build on youth which is well and good but he didn't see the need for more veteran players or misjudged them like the Ariza signing.

 

[SirStefan32]

For the most part, players start to develop in years 1-2. Enough so teams start to figure out if they want to keep them on the ever increasing rookie scale contract. It's so hard to let a draft pick go early but as you say, their rookie scale contracts during year 3 or 4 approach the mid-level exception.

Letting go of Bender, Chriss and Jackson was painful. So much was expected from them. It's hard for a GM to change gears. This may be one of the reasons Ryan McDonough is no longer here is because the Suns front office wanted to clean house. McDonough wanted to build on youth which is well and good but he didn't see the need for more veteran players or misjudged them like the Ariza signing.

What really pisses me off is that just one of those three turning out to be a solid contributor would have been so huge.
I was sure that ONE of them would have turned out OK.

 

[JCSunsfan]

For the most part, players start to develop in years 1-2. Enough so teams start to figure out if they want to keep them on the ever increasing rookie scale contract. It's so hard to let a draft pick go early but as you say, their rookie scale contracts during year 3 or 4 approach the mid-level exception.

Letting go of Bender, Chriss and Jackson was painful. So much was expected from them. It's hard for a GM to change gears. This may be one of the reasons Ryan McDonough is no longer here is because the Suns front office wanted to clean house. McDonough wanted to build on youth which is well and good but he didn't see the need for more veteran players or misjudged them like the Ariza signing.

I think this is probably true. McD was still a believer in his own picks. You could even add TJ Warren to this list. His problem was that every young player he chose was a home run type draft pick. He favored athleticism and size and not NBA skills. The only reason he picked Booker was that he was the 15th pick and no one was left in the other category. But maybe McD's biggest problem was his inability to add a point guard. He liked combo guards. Just look at the guys that were here--Dragic, Bledsoe, Knight etc. Not one was a pass-first pg.

James Jones was an NBA uber role player. He understands how important veteran supporting players are. He also understands the dynamics of a locker room. McD was totally tone-deaf on that score.

 

[Mainstreet]

I think this is probably true. McD was still a believer in his own picks. You could even add TJ Warren to this list. His problem was that every young player he chose was a home run type draft pick. He favored athleticism and size and not NBA skills. The only reason he picked Booker was that he was the 15th pick and no one was left in the other category. But maybe McD's biggest problem was his inability to add a point guard. He liked combo guards. Just look at the guys that were here--Dragic, Bledsoe, Knight etc. Not one was a pass-first pg.

James Jones was an NBA uber role player. He understands how important veteran supporting players are. He also understands the dynamics of a locker room. McD was totally tone-deaf on that score.

Ryan McDonough missed on some draft picks for sure but I don't think TJ Warren at #4 in the 2014 draft was one of them. Except for Tyler Ennis (18) it was a pretty good draft especially if the Suns would have kept the rights to Bogdon (27). Of Course Devin Booker (13) was the Suns first round choice in 2015.

I will give McDonough credit for drafting Warren, Bogdon and Booker. If he is to be knocked on his bad drafts he deserves credit for the good selections as well. It's unfortunate things went South with Warren because he is a decent player although limited.

It seems like the Suns really started to stumble with early selections in the 2016 draft. They gambled on the upside of men in Chriss and Bender. In the 2017 McDonough went after another in Jackson.

McDonough was the GM in the 2018 draft but I'm not sure if Robert Sarver didn't effectively make the calls in the selection of Ayton and the trade for Bridges.

In retrospect those early draft picks may have partially led to the demise of McDonough because he was not good at drafting early banking on young, athletic but raw players.

If the Suns had played Dragic at point guard I think he would have been fine. Putting him at shooting guard was a mistake. I would have preferred to keep Dragic over Bledsoe and IT even if he wasn't a pure distributor.

I like James Jones approach to improving the Suns especially the hire of Monty Williams. The Suns acquired experienced veterans but maintained their youth. Adding Rubio, re-signing Oubre and trading for Baynes/Jerome were very nice moves indeed. Tyler Johnson was a part of this as well.

And the 2019 draft looks bright looking at it today.

 

[Mainstreet]

What really pisses me off is that just one of those three turning out to be a solid contributor would have been so huge.
I was sure that ONE of them would have turned out OK.

Certainly you are not the only one who thought at least one of the three would turned out well.

I was right there as well and I'm sure we have company.

 

[AzStevenCal]

...It seems like the Suns really started to stumble with early selections in the 2016 draft. They gambled on the upside of men in Chriss and Bender. In the 2017 McDonough went after another in Jackson.

McDonough was the GM in the 2018 draft but I'm not sure if Robert Sarver didn't effectively make the calls in the selection of Ayton and the trade for Bridges.

In retrospect those early draft picks may have partially led to the demise of McDonough because he was not good at drafting early banking on young, athletic but raw players.

If the Suns had played Dragic at point guard I think he would have been fine. Putting him at shooting guard was a mistake. I would have preferred to keep Dragic over Bledsoe and IT even if he wasn't a pure distributor.

I like James Jones approach to improving the Suns especially the hire of Monty Williams. The Suns acquired experienced veterans but maintained their youth. Adding Rubio, re-signing Oubre and trading for Baynes/Jerome were very nice moves indeed. Tyler Johnson was a part of this as well.

And the 2019 draft looks bright looking at it today.

I have no reason to doubt that Ryan had a decent eye for talent but once we decided on a full-on tank job we were no longer interested in simply improving our team - we were intent on finding a transcendent player. Unless there's a Lebron in the draft though you are risking an awful lot by gambling that a player, no matter how promising he is, will actually become an all time great. It's especially risky to ignore that player's floor.

We made a lot of mistakes along the way but I think our journey should be a huge warning sign for any other team thinking about following the Hinkie method. IMO, it's incredibly flawed especially in today's climate where stars frequently flock to other stars.

 

[Mainstreet]

@AzStevenCal

Also the draft odds changing is also a reason not to follow the Hinkie method as well. The Suns found being being bad does not equate to a top draft pick as discovered in the last draft.

 

[AzStevenCal]

@AzStevenCal

Also the draft odds changing is also a reason not to follow the Hinkie method as well. The Suns found being being bad does not equate to a top draft pick as discovered in the last draft.

True but I think it's flawed enough on it's own merit to not warrant anyone using that approach. And you're right, being bad does not always equate to a top draft pick but we should have discovered that in those pre-Ayton drafts where we ended up drafting lower than our record. Anyway, had we not been tanking, I'm confident we would not have taken Bender, Chriss or Jackson. I wish I could say the same about Len but that was more a bad draft than anything else.

I think we'll still see teams tanking but unless they change the lottery drastically, we've probably seen the last of the Philly/Phoenix approach where teams tank for all or most of a season.

 

[BC867]

Certainly you are not the only one who thought at least one of the three would turned out well.

I was right there as well and I'm sure we have company.

It wasn't as much as one of them turning out well. BTW,
young players don't 'turn out'. They are either skillfully
developed by their coaches in the NBA or they're not.

The problem was drafting two rookie Power Forwards
at the same time to compete against each other.

It always makes sense to go with a veteran & rookie
sharing the playing time. At worst, two veterans.

Just as three Point Guards competing with each
other for dominance and playing time didn't work.

Too much internal competition kills team chemistry.
And, as we saw at Power Forward, doesn't build
confidence in either of the competing rookies.

It also reflected on the inability of management to
make a damn decision and develop it, rather than
spin the wheel and see where it falls. That is lazy,
passive management.

So indicative, at the time, of an overbearing
Managing Partner investor who thinks the title
made him an NBA General Manager.

How do we know? Look at the results? Of both
the Power Forward and Point Guard fiascos.

It set the Suns back for too long and still
hasn't developed a young Power Forward.

 

[Mainstreet]

It wasn't as much as one of them turning out well. BTW,
young players don't 'turn out'. They are either skillfully
developed by their coaches in the NBA or they're not.

The problem was drafting two rookie Power Forwards
at the same time to compete against each other.

It always makes sense to go with a veteran & rookie
sharing the playing time. At worst, two veterans.

Just as three Point Guards competing with each
other for dominance and playing time didn't work.

Too much internal competition kills team chemistry.
And, as we saw at Power Forward, doesn't build
confidence in either of the competing rookies.

It also reflected on the inability of management to
make a damn decision and develop it, rather than
spin the wheel and see where it falls. That is lazy,
passive management.

So indicative, at the time, of an overbearing
Managing Partner investor who thinks the title
made him an NBA General Manager.

How do we know? Look at the results? Of both
the Power Forward and Point Guard fiascos.

It set the Suns back for too long and still
hasn't developed a young Power Forward.

It's not like Bender and Chriss were high caliber players like Lauri Markkanen or John Collins. If they were, they would probably be on the Suns roster today. Can't develop something when the ability is not there.
McDonough missed on the players in the 2016 and 2017 drafts. If he hit on two of the three players he might still be here.

That said, McDonough's managerial style was wrong for the Suns. His choice in head coaches was poor. I doubt he would ever ability hire a quality head coach like Monty or attract top free agents. It's best the Suns moved on. Hiring James Jones was a huge step in the right direction.