Is Murray Too Risk Adverse?

Harry

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This question has popped into my mind on several occasions. I usually post something right after a game then something later after I have had time to digest the game. Today I was reading Josh Weinfuss on whether or not teams have started to figure out how to defense Murray. Murray said that in the Pats game he rarely chose to keep the ball because the Pats overplayed him specifically. I think he’s wrong.

I reviewed the film and I think there may be a pattern here. Let’s look at Murray’s history. Set aside his that shoulder was hurt and look at more than just this game. I can recall very few examples where Murray risked contact to make a first down. In fact, more often than not, the opposite is true. Clearly he changes Sunday’s game if he makes the first on his late run when he gave himself up by sliding. It was the play after which the Cards gave up a long punt return. I’m not certain he can make the first but I liked his chances. At worst he leaves a fourth down opportunity. There were plays where I disagreed with Murray, for example late in the game he hands off to Drake running to the left. Only one defender was close to Murray on the right. If Murray pulls the ball out he doesn’t have a cadre of blockers but he only has to defeat one isolated defender. Even the announcers questioned his decision. The right clearly was the path of least resistance. Numerous times we’ve seen Murray step out of bounds a yard or two short of the down marker. It’s true there often was a defender present but Murray had the momentum.

I know Wilson does this sometimes but many times I see him fight for yardage. There has always been concern about Murray’s ability to take punishment. I’m okay with his dropping to avoid a hard sack. Typically the rusher has the momentum and a significant size advantage. Murray is right to go down. There is little to be gained by taking that hit. However, when possession of the ball so a drive continues is what’s at stake, I don’t think collapsing every time is the play. Possession is how you control a game. It rests your defense. It’s an opportunity for points. This is a contact sport. It’s one thing to give up on first or second down, but third down efficiency is critical to gridiron success.

I’m think it is possible that the failure to pull-up and throw when scrambling is a reflection of the same concern. Then there’s the grounding calls. Of course, the Cards never sneak with the QB under center. That was costly Sunday.

So I’m not certain all these cleverly designed defenses stopped Murray or did Murray stop Murray. If the Cards want to be the team I think they can be they need to find a way to convince Murray that an element of risk must be accepted. He might get injured but in the end that risk is a large part of what the game is about.
 

Cheesebeef

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This question has popped into my mind on several occasions. I usually post something right after a game then something later after I have had time to digest the game. Today I was reading Josh Weinfuss on whether or not teams have started to figure out how to defense Murray. Murray said that in the Pats game he rarely chose to keep the ball because the Pats overplayed him specifically. I think he’s wrong.

I reviewed the film and I think there may be a pattern here. Let’s look at Murray’s history. Set aside his that shoulder was hurt and look at more than just this game. I can recall very few examples where Murray risked contact to make a first down. In fact, more often than not, the opposite is true. Clearly he changes Sunday’s game if he makes the first on his late run when he gave himself up by sliding. It was the play after which the Cards gave up a long punt return. I’m not certain he can make the first but I liked his chances. At worst he leaves a fourth down opportunity. There were plays where I disagreed with Murray, for example late in the game he hands off to Drake running to the left. Only one defender was close to Murray on the right. If Murray pulls the ball out he doesn’t have a cadre of blockers but he only has to defeat one isolated defender. Even the announcers questioned his decision. The right clearly was the path of least resistance. Numerous times we’ve seen Murray step out of bounds a yard or two short of the down marker. It’s true there often was a defender present but Murray had the momentum.

I know Wilson does this sometimes but many times I see him fight for yardage. There has always been concern about Murray’s ability to take punishment. I’m okay with his dropping to avoid a hard sack. Typically the rusher has the momentum and a significant size advantage. Murray is right to go down. There is little to be gained by taking that hit. However, when possession of the ball so a drive continues is what’s at stake, I don’t think collapsing every time is the play. Possession is how you control a game. It rests your defense. It’s an opportunity for points. This is a contact sport. It’s one thing to give up on first or second down, but third down efficiency is critical to gridiron success.

I’m think it is possible that the failure to pull-up and throw when scrambling is a reflection of the same concern. Then there’s the grounding calls. Of course, the Cards never sneak with the QB under center. That was costly Sunday.

So I’m not certain all these cleverly designed defenses stopped Murray or did Murray stop Murray. If the Cards want to be the team I think they can be they need to find a way to convince Murray that an element of risk must be accepted. He might get injured but in the end that risk is a large part of what the game is about.

i think we’re seeing a combination of the two. Defenses are catching up and Kyler clearly isn’t looking to run and taking on tacklers because of his shoulder.

In that Buffalo game, he was lowering his shoulder into guys for a little extra yardage. That guy clearly isn’t who he is right now.
 

dreamcastrocks

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This question has popped into my mind on several occasions. I usually post something right after a game then something later after I have had time to digest the game. Today I was reading Josh Weinfuss on whether or not teams have started to figure out how to defense Murray. Murray said that in the Pats game he rarely chose to keep the ball because the Pats overplayed him specifically. I think he’s wrong.

I reviewed the film and I think there may be a pattern here. Let’s look at Murray’s history. Set aside his that shoulder was hurt and look at more than just this game. I can recall very few examples where Murray risked contact to make a first down. In fact, more often than not, the opposite is true. Clearly he changes Sunday’s game if he makes the first on his late run when he gave himself up by sliding. It was the play after which the Cards gave up a long punt return. I’m not certain he can make the first but I liked his chances. At worst he leaves a fourth down opportunity. There were plays where I disagreed with Murray, for example late in the game he hands off to Drake running to the left. Only one defender was close to Murray on the right. If Murray pulls the ball out he doesn’t have a cadre of blockers but he only has to defeat one isolated defender. Even the announcers questioned his decision. The right clearly was the path of least resistance. Numerous times we’ve seen Murray step out of bounds a yard or two short of the down marker. It’s true there often was a defender present but Murray had the momentum.

I know Wilson does this sometimes but many times I see him fight for yardage. There has always been concern about Murray’s ability to take punishment. I’m okay with his dropping to avoid a hard sack. Typically the rusher has the momentum and a significant size advantage. Murray is right to go down. There is little to be gained by taking that hit. However, when possession of the ball so a drive continues is what’s at stake, I don’t think collapsing every time is the play. Possession is how you control a game. It rests your defense. It’s an opportunity for points. This is a contact sport. It’s one thing to give up on first or second down, but third down efficiency is critical to gridiron success.

I’m think it is possible that the failure to pull-up and throw when scrambling is a reflection of the same concern. Then there’s the grounding calls. Of course, the Cards never sneak with the QB under center. That was costly Sunday.

So I’m not certain all these cleverly designed defenses stopped Murray or did Murray stop Murray. If the Cards want to be the team I think they can be they need to find a way to convince Murray that an element of risk must be accepted. He might get injured but in the end that risk is a large part of what the game is about.

I think he is playing a bit injured and scared.

I don't think the league has caught up.
 

BritCard

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I don't disagree. There are times he's run out short where he should have moved the chains with a hit. Let's not pretend Kyler is 180lbs. He's 210lb+. If he's up against a DB he likely has the weight advantage.

However the play you refer to from the Pats game I'm not sure it was intentional. I came away from that thinking he tripped.
 

Chopper0080

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I think that Kyler, like most dudes who are undersized in the NFL, wants to avoid contact and live to fight another day.

I believe he still adjusting to the tight windows in the NFL and what open looks like.

I think he is still working on throwing players open.

I think his pocket mechanics are still terrible and his protection awareness causes him to miss opportunities for chunk plays.

I think defensive coaches in the NFL now know what he likes to do and are taking those things away which is causing his recent struggles.
 

TheCardFan

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I don't want KK lowering his shoulder and taking on defenders.

Dude is still learning the NFL game and is lighting it up this year. Let's appreciate what we have in a QB/what he has done.

He has improved significantly with decision making this year vs last and not taking as many sacks.

He will continue to get better.
 

Cheesebeef

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I think that Kyler, like most dudes who are undersized in the NFL, wants to avoid contact and live to fight another day.

I believe he still adjusting to the tight windows in the NFL and what open looks like.

I think he is still working on throwing players open.

I think his pocket mechanics are still terrible and his protection awareness causes him to miss opportunities for chunk plays.

I think defensive coaches in the NFL now know what he likes to do and are taking those things away which is causing his recent struggles.

his pocket mechanics are really bad. This year he’s taken a quantum leap using his legs, but he hasn’t progressed as a pocket passer much at all, which has been disappointing. Hopefully he attacks that part of his game and gets better next season the way he has with his legs.
 

Russ Smith

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I like that he doesn't take hits because I want 12 years of Murray not 5. That's always been my issue with running QB's they take too many hits.

The guy I compare him to is Steve Young, had about twice the snaps Kyler did in college, then the USFL then Tampa for 2 years then backing up Joe Montana. Absolutely perfect situation one of the great passing systems in college, to the USFL where he got to play a ton without it being in the NFL, then on a bad team where he got experience, and then backing up one of the best QB's in NFL history, with a pretty good coach mind you. It still took Young awhile to get from being a runner who could throw, to a real QB. Kyler is MUCH younger, less college experience, and Kliff is not exactly Bill Walsh.

But the similarities are there, Young was taller and stronger but Kyler is a terrific runner, has a great arm, but he has not learned the nuances of being a QB and he needs to be taught that. I've always said this at his peak, I don't think the NFL has seen a better QB than Steve Young, but his peak wasn't very long because he didn't become the 49ers starter until he was 29 years old, he was 5 full years in the NFL plus however many in the USFL before he became a fulltime NFL starter, Kyler was from jumpstreet, with half the college experience.

If we coach Kyler up correctly, I think he can be a pretty similar player at his peak, and he's WAY ahead of Steve Young, Young didn't complete even 54 percent of his passes in any of his first 4 NFL seasons.

I won't say Steve Young is the ceiling because again Kyler doesn't have Bill Walsh teaching him and doesn't have Joe Montana to watch, but I do think if we are patient with Kyler and get him what he needs, he'll be special. This year he lost so much development time due to Covid, he's much better he's not getting sacked nearly as often, rarely runs backwards, he's a much better runner. But he has lots to work on that has been discussed here too.

But the last thing I want to see him doing is take a hit in the first half with an injured shoulder because if he doesn't they might get a big punt return. Again, as late as Friday morning, there were people openly saying Streveler might start Sunday, unless that was just a huge bluff, I think we're not really sure how his shoulder is.

The Rams game is going to be tough we do not matchup with them at all. The best chance we have, is Kyler Murray
 

Jetstream Green

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I don't want KK lowering his shoulder and taking on defenders.

Dude is still learning the NFL game and is lighting it up this year. Let's appreciate what we have in a QB/what he has done.

He has improved significantly with decision making this year vs last and not taking as many sacks.

He will continue to get better.

This
 

GimmedaBall

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Eventually. They haven't with KK yet.

If they haven't already, they are close enough. The extent to which the league is catching up to K2 is evident in the way they are now playing KM.

I posted a video showing KM's throwing motion---in 2019, he was making throws by looking for windows opened by the OL as they banged with the DL. Now, those throwing windows are being closed with the way the DL and LBers are maintaining not just running gap control but throwing gap control. We've already lost a lot of passing plays in the middle of the field in 2020.

Teams are keeping KM behind the LOS and forcing him to throw while on the run. When they keep him bottled up in the pocket, he has problems stepping up and into the throw. In some cases, he just can't see over the huge guys playing DL and over the OL guys trying to protect him. When KM is going through his throwing motion, he is not 5'10" (if he is that to begin with)---he is down to 5'6". From the pocket, his release point and the trajectory of his throw is coming out low enough that DL and LBers throwing up their arms are literally higher than the path of the ball---they are getting arm and helmet blocks, not fingertip blocks.

About the only offensive playbook and young QB who hasn't been figured out by opposing D's is Mahomes---of course, he is an alien Predator left on earth and discovered by AR to toy with us puny earthlings.
 

Cheesebeef

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Eventually. They haven't with KK yet.

wha? Last year we had an average offense. and after this week, we will have an above average offense. You're making it seem like KK is lighting the world on fire with the idea that KK is ahead of the NFL defenses.
 

dreamcastrocks

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wha? Last year we had an average offense. and after this week, we will have an above average offense. You're making it seem like KK is lighting the world on fire with the idea that KK is ahead of the NFL defenses.

No. I'm directly responding to the question that the league hasn't caught up with KK yet. I don't think they have. I don't think that KK has come close to hitting his ceiling is all.

You don't go from an average to an above average offense if the league has figured you out.
 

Cheesebeef

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No. I'm directly responding to the question that the league hasn't caught up with KK yet. I don't think they have. I don't think that KK has come close to hitting his ceiling is all.

You don't go from an average to an above average offense if the league has figured you out.

they definitely look like they've caught up the last two weeks where we put up a putrid 19 ppg against a terrible and bad defense.
 

GimmedaBall

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We've gotten spoiled by watching KM run for chunk yardage and crash the endzone for TDs. That is not sustainable over a season and certainly not over a long career. KM is our offense---without him we're a bunch of passengers on the bus with no driver.

KM has to be risk-averse if he is to survive the eleven heat-seeking missiles all pointed in his direction on each and every play.
 

SoonerLou

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his pocket mechanics are really bad. This year he’s taken a quantum leap using his legs, but he hasn’t progressed as a pocket passer much at all, which has been disappointing. Hopefully he attacks that part of his game and gets better next season the way he has with his legs.
Posted elsewhere...but that might be a trend with Kingsbury's QBs. Mahomes wasnt noticeably better with his mechanics from his SO to JR year either.

Mel Kiper of ESPN gave the Chiefs a C-plus. He wrote: “(T)his class will hinge on Patrick Mahomes because Kansas City bet big that he’s the successor to Alex Smith. Giving up a third-round pick and next year’s first to move up 17 spots was a ton for a team with immediate needs elsewhere and some defenders getting up there in age. Mahomes has a high ceiling, but he’s going to have to learn how NFL offenses are run, and the Chiefs are going to have to rebuild his mechanics from the ground up

Steven Ruiz of USA Today gave the Chiefs a C-minus for picking Mahomes. He wrote: “Calling Mahomes a project is a major understatement. He’s nowhere near ready to play in the NFL. And, honestly, he may never be. Between his inconsistent accuracy due to poor mechanics, his tendency to bail from clean pockets and his lack of field vision, he’s going to leave as many big plays on the field as he creates. This was a risky pick.”


Revisiting draft grades after Chiefs took Patrick Mahomes | The Kansas City Star

I question if we need to bring in a very experienced QB coach to help out next year. I think @BritCard suggested someone a couple months ago. QB developing may not really be Kliff's thing. Just putting them in positions to succeed instead. I know we got Tom Clements, but it always seems like Kliff is working with them on drills though.
 

football karma

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K1 vs the Dolphins and Bills challenged tacklers

i suspect he first tweaked something vs the Bills

after Sea, he referred to being sore for a couple games.

since Buff -- far less aggressive running the ball

and i agree with Harry -- on the run with Dan Arnold engaged with a blocker, he slid 3 yards short -- he could have easily just ran into Arnolds back and probably gained the first.
 

SoonerLou

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K1 vs the Dolphins and Bills challenged tacklers

i suspect he first tweaked something vs the Bills

after Sea, he referred to being sore for a couple games.

since Buff -- far less aggressive running the ball

and i agree with Harry -- on the run with Dan Arnold engaged with a blocker, he slid 3 yards short -- he could have easily just ran into Arnolds back and probably gained the first.
Imo he was at risk of being Sandwiched on that play. We dont want him taking Dolphins games like hits...in the 3rd Qrt. At least that was with the game on the line.
 

SoonerLou

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At first I thought if he slid up (after backing up so far) he probably hits Isabella/ball doesnt loft.

However, the more I look at it if he darts up the middle its him vs. a DT from getting in the endzone.

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It would have been similar to the 49ers game.


Although this goes back to my point about Kliff having a horrible feel on when to call a screen pass. Not sure we've got much on screen passes to the backs at all this year. This looked like a perfect opportunity to call one.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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No. I'm directly responding to the question that the league hasn't caught up with KK yet. I don't think they have. I don't think that KK has come close to hitting his ceiling is all.

You don't go from an average to an above average offense if the league has figured you out.
You do if you upgrade your pieces like trading for Hop, having drake from training camp, and having a ton of young players take steps in their development. But even despite that the past few weeks it looks like the nfl has caught up to kk if kyler can’t do his ad hoc magic.
 

Cardsfaninlouky

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This question has popped into my mind on several occasions. I usually post something right after a game then something later after I have had time to digest the game. Today I was reading Josh Weinfuss on whether or not teams have started to figure out how to defense Murray. Murray said that in the Pats game he rarely chose to keep the ball because the Pats overplayed him specifically. I think he’s wrong.

I reviewed the film and I think there may be a pattern here. Let’s look at Murray’s history. Set aside his that shoulder was hurt and look at more than just this game. I can recall very few examples where Murray risked contact to make a first down. In fact, more often than not, the opposite is true. Clearly he changes Sunday’s game if he makes the first on his late run when he gave himself up by sliding. It was the play after which the Cards gave up a long punt return. I’m not certain he can make the first but I liked his chances. At worst he leaves a fourth down opportunity. There were plays where I disagreed with Murray, for example late in the game he hands off to Drake running to the left. Only one defender was close to Murray on the right. If Murray pulls the ball out he doesn’t have a cadre of blockers but he only has to defeat one isolated defender. Even the announcers questioned his decision. The right clearly was the path of least resistance. Numerous times we’ve seen Murray step out of bounds a yard or two short of the down marker. It’s true there often was a defender present but Murray had the momentum.

I know Wilson does this sometimes but many times I see him fight for yardage. There has always been concern about Murray’s ability to take punishment. I’m okay with his dropping to avoid a hard sack. Typically the rusher has the momentum and a significant size advantage. Murray is right to go down. There is little to be gained by taking that hit. However, when possession of the ball so a drive continues is what’s at stake, I don’t think collapsing every time is the play. Possession is how you control a game. It rests your defense. It’s an opportunity for points. This is a contact sport. It’s one thing to give up on first or second down, but third down efficiency is critical to gridiron success.

I’m think it is possible that the failure to pull-up and throw when scrambling is a reflection of the same concern. Then there’s the grounding calls. Of course, the Cards never sneak with the QB under center. That was costly Sunday.

So I’m not certain all these cleverly designed defenses stopped Murray or did Murray stop Murray. If the Cards want to be the team I think they can be they need to find a way to convince Murray that an element of risk must be accepted. He might get injured but in the end that risk is a large part of what the game is about.
It seems like since the Dolphins game at least he's been making the wrong decisions on critical downs with the RPO plays. Can't remember if it was 3rd or 4th down against the Dolphins but if he hands the ball off to Edmonds it's a 1st down easily, instead he keeps it & is brought down for a loss. On the play you're talking about against the Patriots, he hands the ball off to Drake & he gets tackled for a loss, he had one defender to make miss if he kept the ball & ran right? Looked like he could've got about 10-15 yards if he kept it? I hope his decision making on those plays improves soon?
 
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