Is Kyler Murray the answer at QB for next year and beyond?

kerouac9

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Wilson's rookie season is out-doing Pittman's by quite a bit. Pittman missed 3 games with injury that year as well. Just sayin
It’s not a comparison from a production perspective. Pittman was the third WR and 4th or 5th receiving option on a playoff team.
 

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We should probably just wait because I imagine it's going to change every week.
 

Gandhi

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I think it is a bit stubborn if you still don't accept the potential with Murray next season. Yes, he makes clear mistakes, but consider the context. He also makes bigtime plays. Sure, if they get the #1 pick then it should at least be a discussion, but other than that, I don't see how anyone can think it make sense to start over once again already.
 

oaken1

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That's amazing, wow. Great find TheCardFan, thank you!
that graphic makes some statements that would sure cause a ton of arguments...
Like, Kyler makes good things happen as often as Lamar and Josh,...and nearly Mahomes...but gets sacked waaay less than any of them... sure makes him look like a top 5 QB in effectiveness.... but sample size matters
 

b8rtm8nn

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that graphic makes some statements that would sure cause a ton of arguments...
Like, Kyler makes good things happen as often as Lamar and Josh,...and nearly Mahomes...but gets sacked waaay less than any of them... sure makes him look like a top 5 QB in effectiveness.... but sample size matters
I think you are ready sack rate wrong, Kyler gets sacked more than average but also has a high create rate - so more boom/bust variability, like Russell Wilson, in these scenarios (sack rate is inverted on the axis - high to low going up)
 

daves

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IIt was easy to get caught up in the excitement of seeing Murray make "some good plays" this past weekend. But just to put his performance this season, and in his last game, into context....

The Athletic has an article today ranking NFL QBs by EPA per dropback.

Numbers 1-10:
QBEPA/DB, seasonEPA/DB, wk 13Pass Rtg, seasonPass Rtg, wk 13
Brock Purdy0.300.73116.1148.8
Dak Prescott
Tua Tagovailoa
Josh Allen
CJ Stroud
Patrick Mahomes
Justin Herbert
Jalen Hurts
Matthew Stafford
Jordan Love0.090.4190.2118.6

Interesting: "Purdy is in the midst of a remarkable run. [He] only produced his third-best passer rating this season at 148.8 in Sunday’s win over the Eagles. Take it a step further. It’s only his third-best passer rating in the last four weeks! And his fourth best this season was a measly 144.4 rating … against the Cowboys. What? How is that even a thing? His 0.73 EPA rate Sunday was the second best of the season and his career."

Numbers 11-20:
QBEPA/DB, seasonEPA/DB, wk 13Pass Rtg, seasonPass Rtg, wk 13
Jared Goff0.0898.1
Kirk Cousins
Baker Mayfield
Geno Smith
Lamar Jackson
Trevor Lawrence
Derek Carr
Gardner Minshew
Joe Burrow
Will Levis-0.0386.9

Numbers 21-30:
QBEPA/DB, seasonEPA/DB, wk 13Pass Rtg, seasonPass Rtg, wk 13
Aidan O'Connell-0.0476.4
Russell Wilson
Jimmy Garoppolo
Joshua Dobbs
Sam Howell
Justin Fields
Tyson Bagent
Desmond Ridder
Ryan Tannehill
Kyler Murray-0.120.0581.789.9

Gulp.

"Kyler Murray yielded his first positive EPA rate since returning to action in the Arizona Cardinals’ Week 13 win over the Steelers. He also tallied his best passer rating since his return, but his lowest completion percentage (56.5 percent) as well."

Numbers 31-37:
QBEPA/DB, seasonEPA/DB, wk 13Pass Rtg, seasonPass Rtg, wk 13
Kenny Pickett-0.1581.4
Deshaun Watson
Mac Jones
Bryce Young
Daniel Jones
Zach Wilson
Tommy DeVito-0.2492.4
 

oaken1

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I think you are ready sack rate wrong, Kyler gets sacked more than average but also has a high create rate - so more boom/bust variability, like Russell Wilson, in these scenarios (sack rate is inverted on the axis - high to low going up)
ah, I see...I stand corrected!!
 

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This graph isn't how often wide receivers are open. It's how often Kyler throws to wide open receivers.

Its low because Kyler isn't great at reading defenses and adjusting his reads, and because he often decides pre snap who's getting the ball no matter what.

I showed on an earlier graph his 1st read is open at the 5th best rate in the league. This just shows that when guys are wide open he's missing them.
 

daves

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Today, another article in the Athletic that ranks NFL QBs by "Quarterback Reliability Index":
The QRI is a model that measures quarterback performance in high-leverage situations as a way to quantify the level to which a team relies on that player’s ability when it matters most. These high-level situations include third- and fourth-down plays and late-game sequences all while filtering out plays in which the in-game win probability is greater than 80% for either team. In other words, when the game is on the line, this metric attempts to evaluate how well a quarterback has gotten the job done.

Passing- and rushing-related metrics within the model include versions of:
  • Expected points added (EPA)
  • Success rate (play with a positive EPA is considered a successful play)
  • Win probability added (WPA)
Using the metrics, the model calculates a rating similar to Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in baseball. The rating represents how many wins better the given QB has been than a replacement-level QB in the aforementioned high-leverage situations and then prorated over the course of a 17-game season.

For a more thorough evaluation, the index includes data from all games since the start of the 2022 season (for applicable players) with recent games weighted more heavily. Until more games are played, rookies and newer starters have smaller sample sizes and will be more susceptible to bigger swings.

RANKQUARTERBACKTEAMWINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT
1Dak PrescottCowboys7.9
2Trevor LawrenceJaguars7.7
3Jalen HurtsEagles7.6
4Jared GoffLions7.0
5Josh AllenBills6.8
6Tua TagovailoaDolphins6.8
7Brock Purdy49ers6.4
8Gardner MinshewColts6.3
9Lamar JacksonRavens6.2
10Patrick MahomesChiefs5.6
11Justin HerbertChargers4.8
12Joe BurrowBengals4.7
13Jordan LovePackers4.6
14Jimmy GaroppoloRaiders4.4
15Geno SmithSeahawks4.4
16Matthew StaffordRams4.2
17Kirk CousinsVikings4.1
18C.J. Stroud*Texans3.9
19Baker MayfieldBuccaneers2.1
20Desmond RidderFalcons1.6
21Justin FieldsBears1.6
22Daniel JonesGiants1.6
23Sam HowellCommanders1.3
24Kenny PickettSteelers1.2
25Aidan O'Connell*Raiders1.2
26Anthony Richardson*Colts0.8
27Derek CarrSaints0.6
28Tommy DeVito*Giants0.3
29Ryan TannehillTitans0.1
30Will Levis*Titans0.0
31Josh DobbsVikings-0.2
32Kyler MurrayCardinals-0.5
33Russell WilsonBroncos-0.7
34Taylor HeinickeFalcons-0.8
35Mac JonesPatriots-1.0
36Deshaun WatsonBrowns-2.0
37Bryce Young*Panthers-2.4
38Zach WilsonJets-2.4
39Aaron RodgersJets-2.5
40Dorian Thompson-Robinson*Browns-3.2
 

Crimson Warrior

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Today, another article in the Athletic that ranks NFL QBs by "Quarterback Reliability Index":


RANKQUARTERBACKTEAMWINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT
1Dak PrescottCowboys7.9
2Trevor LawrenceJaguars7.7
3Jalen HurtsEagles7.6
4Jared GoffLions7.0
5Josh AllenBills6.8
6Tua TagovailoaDolphins6.8
7Brock Purdy49ers6.4
8Gardner MinshewColts6.3
9Lamar JacksonRavens6.2
10Patrick MahomesChiefs5.6
11Justin HerbertChargers4.8
12Joe BurrowBengals4.7
13Jordan LovePackers4.6
14Jimmy GaroppoloRaiders4.4
15Geno SmithSeahawks4.4
16Matthew StaffordRams4.2
17Kirk CousinsVikings4.1
18C.J. Stroud*Texans3.9
19Baker MayfieldBuccaneers2.1
20Desmond RidderFalcons1.6
21Justin FieldsBears1.6
22Daniel JonesGiants1.6
23Sam HowellCommanders1.3
24Kenny PickettSteelers1.2
25Aidan O'Connell*Raiders1.2
26Anthony Richardson*Colts0.8
27Derek CarrSaints0.6
28Tommy DeVito*Giants0.3
29Ryan TannehillTitans0.1
30Will Levis*Titans0.0
31Josh DobbsVikings-0.2
32Kyler MurrayCardinals-0.5
33Russell WilsonBroncos-0.7
34Taylor HeinickeFalcons-0.8
35Mac JonesPatriots-1.0
36Deshaun WatsonBrowns-2.0
37Bryce Young*Panthers-2.4
38Zach WilsonJets-2.4
39Aaron RodgersJets-2.5
40Dorian Thompson-Robinson*Browns-3.2

So I guess I'd take Gardner Minshew on my team instead of Pat Mahomes or (holds his nose) Joe Burrow? :)

Edit - j/k daves, and thanks for posting!
 
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MadCardDisease

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Today, another article in the Athletic that ranks NFL QBs by "Quarterback Reliability Index":


RANKQUARTERBACKTEAMWINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT
1Dak PrescottCowboys7.9
2Trevor LawrenceJaguars7.7
3Jalen HurtsEagles7.6
4Jared GoffLions7.0
5Josh AllenBills6.8
6Tua TagovailoaDolphins6.8
7Brock Purdy49ers6.4
8Gardner MinshewColts6.3
9Lamar JacksonRavens6.2
10Patrick MahomesChiefs5.6
11Justin HerbertChargers4.8
12Joe BurrowBengals4.7
13Jordan LovePackers4.6
14Jimmy GaroppoloRaiders4.4
15Geno SmithSeahawks4.4
16Matthew StaffordRams4.2
17Kirk CousinsVikings4.1
18C.J. Stroud*Texans3.9
19Baker MayfieldBuccaneers2.1
20Desmond RidderFalcons1.6
21Justin FieldsBears1.6
22Daniel JonesGiants1.6
23Sam HowellCommanders1.3
24Kenny PickettSteelers1.2
25Aidan O'Connell*Raiders1.2
26Anthony Richardson*Colts0.8
27Derek CarrSaints0.6
28Tommy DeVito*Giants0.3
29Ryan TannehillTitans0.1
30Will Levis*Titans0.0
31Josh DobbsVikings-0.2
32Kyler MurrayCardinals-0.5
33Russell WilsonBroncos-0.7
34Taylor HeinickeFalcons-0.8
35Mac JonesPatriots-1.0
36Deshaun WatsonBrowns-2.0
37Bryce Young*Panthers-2.4
38Zach WilsonJets-2.4
39Aaron RodgersJets-2.5
40Dorian Thompson-Robinson*Browns-3.2

Seems really silly. They don't even define what a "replacement-level QB" is.
 

Chopper0080

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Today, another article in the Athletic that ranks NFL QBs by "Quarterback Reliability Index":


RANKQUARTERBACKTEAMWINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT
1Dak PrescottCowboys7.9
2Trevor LawrenceJaguars7.7
3Jalen HurtsEagles7.6
4Jared GoffLions7.0
5Josh AllenBills6.8
6Tua TagovailoaDolphins6.8
7Brock Purdy49ers6.4
8Gardner MinshewColts6.3
9Lamar JacksonRavens6.2
10Patrick MahomesChiefs5.6
11Justin HerbertChargers4.8
12Joe BurrowBengals4.7
13Jordan LovePackers4.6
14Jimmy GaroppoloRaiders4.4
15Geno SmithSeahawks4.4
16Matthew StaffordRams4.2
17Kirk CousinsVikings4.1
18C.J. Stroud*Texans3.9
19Baker MayfieldBuccaneers2.1
20Desmond RidderFalcons1.6
21Justin FieldsBears1.6
22Daniel JonesGiants1.6
23Sam HowellCommanders1.3
24Kenny PickettSteelers1.2
25Aidan O'Connell*Raiders1.2
26Anthony Richardson*Colts0.8
27Derek CarrSaints0.6
28Tommy DeVito*Giants0.3
29Ryan TannehillTitans0.1
30Will Levis*Titans0.0
31Josh DobbsVikings-0.2
32Kyler MurrayCardinals-0.5
33Russell WilsonBroncos-0.7
34Taylor HeinickeFalcons-0.8
35Mac JonesPatriots-1.0
36Deshaun WatsonBrowns-2.0
37Bryce Young*Panthers-2.4
38Zach WilsonJets-2.4
39Aaron RodgersJets-2.5
40Dorian Thompson-Robinson*Browns-3.2
Skeptical of stats like this but Kyler has been inconsistent so this kinda makes sense.
 

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Next week is kind of a big deal.

Even with a little time off Kyler has extra prep and practice time over the bye before facing the Niners.

And while we lost the road game we were in it until Q4 and Dobbs threw for 28/41, 265 yards and 2 TD's.

If Kyler comes out of a home game significantly worse than that I'm not sure what argument can be made in support.
 

slanidrac16

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Next week is kind of a big deal.

Even with a little time off Kyler has extra prep and practice time over the bye before facing the Niners.

And while we lost the road game we were in it until Q4 and Dobbs threw for 28/41, 265 yards and 2 TD's.

If Kyler comes out of a home game significantly worse than that I'm not sure what argument can be made in support.
We are totally overmatched against the 49ers. They are in the hunt for top seed and have every reason to keep their foot on the pedal.
I can only hope Murray can keep composed and we have a game plan to not get him killed.
Turns out perhaps Steelers game was not that impressive, lol.
The 49ers wr’s overmatch our DB’s.
Their running game overmatch our d-line.
Their front 7 overmatch our o-line.
This game has blow out written all over it.
 
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