Interesting Joyner ESPN Insider Article about Orton

[ASUCHRIS]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=6593183

I know everyone doesn't have insider, but wish that everyone had a chance to see this article, and how it compares Orton/Kolb.

Here is a snippet - for those who have Insider, thoughts?

"Since Kevin Kolb is considered the top quarterback available, let's compare his numbers with Orton's. Some teams were reportedly considering trading a first-round draft pick in 2011 for Kolb, but Orton beat him last year by a significant margin in a wide variety of categories, including overall YPA (7.5 for Orton, 6.2 for Kolb) and vertical YPA (11.5 for Orton, 9.8 for Kolb).

Kolb also has a penchant for taking more on-field risks than just about any quarterback around. His 4 percent bad-decision rate last year was tied for the third-highest total in that category. Since the definition of this metric is when a quarterback makes a mistake with the ball that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover (e.g. dropped interception), it means Kolb was making a mistake about once in every 25 pass attempts.

Now contrast that with Orton's 1.9 percent bad-decision rate (tied for eighth-best in the league), which means he made an error of this nature about once in every 50 passes. "

 

[Goldfield]

I have looked at their numbers and I prefer Orton. I think he is alot better than what people give him credit for.

 

[ARZCardinals]

GET THE SEASON STARTED

GET US A QB

I can't take it much more...I WANT MY CARDINALS FOOTBALL

FLAGSTAFF....I want to come see ya......but no Cardinals .....no ARZCardinals....

Beaver Street Brewery....my stomach is ready for ya (Brambleberry)

 

[CardsFan88]

I'm not sold on either QB, but I would feel more comfortable with Orton.

Now since comfort means crap, I'm saying I see Orton as underappreciated, and I see Kolb as over valued.

The most important thing between the next two things is..when trading...can the guy play(1)? Not....how many years (2) will he play. (see kurt warner)

I know all the party adjectives, but if you said 3rd round pick for either, I'd still want Orton. (fwiw..and as said earlier...I want Palmer for a 3rd...and I'm not one down on Skelton)

Skelton has the tools and at times showed the ability to be a competent QB in this league. But of course, he has to improve in other areas, and do what he can do, consistently. That said, because we're here at this point, it makes a lot of sense for a veteran QB.

I could settle for hass, less on bulger. (hass/bulger/skelton would be good...but that won't happen...but I'd try...because draft picks are worth something)

I'm always very leery of stats, whether they are NFL, or some wall street metric, to QALY and CER as to do with healthcare, but there can be some value gleamed from *some* metrics given proper weighting.

Orton is in his prime. Kolb still has to learn (oh yes...he's ready as they say to start...but he's still not a veteran so there will be growing pains with him as well.)

When watching kolb the past year or more, I haven't been impressed. So if someone wants me to give up a valuable pick, I want someone worthy of that. So a more sure thing with experience...not only that...but experience of doing fairly well in multiple spots, and probably his best duty in his most recent spot, as a brand new QB holds more weight with me than anything Kolb has done (and Orton's trade cost is lower) make him imo the better choice (between the two)

Also with Orton you have the following
He was on the bears (offense). Enough said. What would Warner of done with them? Not nearly as well as with the Cards personnel.

So then he went to the Broncos, a team that has fallen on hard times.

That says something to me about orton. He played on a crap offense and did at times well. He went to a better offense but still crappy team, and as expected (and expected doesn't mean it happens) he performed better makes me think he could do well with our receivers.

I can see kolb making lots of 'young qb' mistakes next year, and we already have a QB that can do that on a learning curve, skelton. Orton is more prepared imo to step in and lead this offense to a spot that can at least give us a chance to compete, and cost less.

Maybe I'm wrong about it all, and I'd welcome Kolb, but I'd prefer orton between the two.

 

[Seandonic]

People can nitpick this to death...and are for that matter (which I can totally understand because there is nothing else to talk about). But what it really boils down to is that either one of these guys has a very good chance to succeed in the desert.

In Orton your getting a guy who is good enough to lead the Cards back to the playoffs already and is a very solid QB. But, has a very limited up-side (IMHO).

With Kolb your getting a QB who is not as good as Orton (as of now) but is also good enough already and has a higher possible upside (IMHO).

Either way, these are the two best options and I would be very happy with either one.

 

[Gaddabout]

I just don't see either of these guys being good fits in this offense. Neither of them throw down the field with a lot of authority, and I don't see either of them having the juevos to throw to Fitzgerald in tight coverage late in a game, even though that's usually the best option.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Neither of them throw down the field with a lot of authority

Statistically, the evidence points to the contrary...

"last season, Orton posted 7.5 yards per attempt (YPA). This total ranked tied with Eli Manning and David Garrard for the ninth-highest overall YPA in the NFL. (Note: This YPA total includes attempts and yards racked up on penalty plays such as pass interference, defensive holding, illegal contact, etc.)

That wasn't the only place where Orton ranked in the top 10. He also placed 10th in vertical YPA with an 11.5 mark (vertical passes being defined as those thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and had the fourth-best YPA (18.7) on bomb passes (thrown 20 or more yards)."

 

[vinnymac]

I know i wanted the Cardinals to draft Orten when he was coming out of College. I would prefer Marc Bulger over any of these Qb's out there. Imo Bulger is the right Qb for the Cardinals.

 

[Duckjake]

GET THE SEASON STARTED

GET US A QB

I can't take it much more...I WANT MY CARDINALS FOOTBALL

FLAGSTAFF....I want to come see ya......but no Cardinals .....no ARZCardinals....

Beaver Street Brewery....my stomach is ready for ya (Brambleberry)

If the Cards are going to display the same crap football they did last season, and with the current QB situation it looks like they will, then I hope the lockout lasts until 2012.

 

[DoTheDew]

I just don't see either of these guys being good fits in this offense. Neither of them throw down the field with a lot of authority, and I don't see either of them having the juevos to throw to Fitzgerald in tight coverage late in a game, even though that's usually the best option.

Since when do we throw down field? The Whiz coached team I've been watching dumps it off inside the first down marker even on 3rd down. We even did it with Warner he just found people in stride for the YAC. I don't know how we got this reputation as a team that likes to throw deep passes more often then average?

 

[Snakester]

I think Orton would put us back into the playoffs. He will never be a Peyton Manning but he will be a solid guy. I just don't know about Kolb. He could turn out to be good but who knows. I think Skelton has a much higher upside but most likely will never be given the chance to develop. In a perfect world we trade fo both Orton and Kolb and let them compete and see who wins.

 

[moklerman]

Since when do we throw down field? The Whiz coached team I've been watching dumps it off inside the first down marker even on 3rd down. We even did it with Warner he just found people in stride for the YAC. I don't know how we got this reputation as a team that likes to throw deep passes more often then average?

I've wondered the same thing.

On top of that, since when do the Cardinals have the time to even do it?

 

[JeffGollin]

Thoughts?

The first thing comes to mind is our choice being limited to cauliflower vs. broccoli. Quite possibly, neither Kolb or Orton may not be the answer for making our offense effective enough.

Second thing is to wonder out loud whether 7.5 vs. 6.2 Yards Per Attempt is significantly different - or whether it's essentially a "tie." Ditto the 11.5 vs. 9.8 Vertical YPA comparison: Is it all that significant or merely splitting hairs. (I don't mean to be contentious - I simply don't know. I'm asking).

The 4% vs. 1.9% Bad Decision Rate seems significant (Am I missing anything)?

To recap - Orton (right now) would seem to be slightly better than Kolb, but looking at him in isolation, do we really feel he's good enough to get the job done? I'm not sold.

However, where it gets interesting is if we could get Orton for considerably less than Philly supposedly is asking for Kolb (say a 2nd round pick vs. a 1st round or multiple picks).

 

[desertdawg]

So we really want Orton? The Broncs had a worse record than us last year, but that must not have been Orton's fault. As far as comparing the 2 QBs, I love how people leave out the facts. Kolb (like every other good QB) did and will struggle a bit while he learns more. Orton is not a good QB, ask around, watch tape, not even if he was a Free Agent.

I'm not playing name games/lame comparisons, so please don't bring up Leinart or Brady etc.

It's simple, Kolb isn't proven (this is true) , so you guys have all the ammo you need.

It's sooo simple, Andy Reid is an evil genius who unloaded his starter Mcnaab just so he could fool the NFL teams into buying the hype on Kolb. The fact that Vick played MVP football had nothing to do with it. And those dang Cardinals are the only team to fall for it, and they'll pay Kolb 400 zillion in guaranteed dollars.

The Cards were masters in the Draft, they let all the other teams go bonkers over the crop of QBs folks here in ASFN weren't feeling. When the QB craze died down in the draft, The Cards release a statement saying "now were looking to address the QB situation...when we secretly wanted Kolb the whole time, because he is ready and not as much as a risk.

If the draft picks scare you, put on your big boy pants and wait to see what happens. I can see us possibly unloading a player or two (not to the Eagles) to replenish some of the next years draft after trading for Kolb or whoever. The contract argument is just that, an argument that is nothing but speculation and guesses. If someone can tell me (within 5 million dollars) how much the Cads would pay him, I would honestly be impressed.

The timeline is the final thing. That's why Whiz and Co didn't try and go Gabbert. They want someone to jump in right now, someone better than Orton, it's obvious because they will have to spend and trade more to get Kolb. Larry Fitzgerald is a great receiver, and I want him to stay. Sign Orton and I'd bet Fitz is on the phone 5 minutes later telling his Agent the Cards don't want to win now, or atleast they aren't trying.

Whiz wants to go for it right now. Graves wants to go for it right now. The little Bidwill looks like he has the wallet and it's open. Whiz simply can't wait to draft and learn another QB, he doesn't have the time.

Kolb is the best of both worlds as far as who's available. Can start right away (after he gets the playbook duh), won't be retiring in the next 2-3 years, can make the throws, tons of leadership, and mentally is a Whiz guy through and through.

So there it is, my Kolb post of the week, and it's my only one of the week. I'm cutting down even more no need to thank me. So to you big ballers who like to carve, dissect, and blow a post out of the water, the fire will not be returned. I'm tired of playing Kolblooey, and yall aint sinking my battleship anyways, it's the Cardinals Camp that your showing no faith in.

 

[WildBB]

If the draft picks scare you, put on your big boy pants and wait to see what happens. I can see us possibly unloading a player or two (not to the Eagles) to replenish some of the next years draft after trading for Kolb or whoever.

Kablooey~! JK, your rant on Kolbe makes sense. I think the FO thinks the same. Now it's a matter of the bid, whether Seattle ups the anty too much. We'll see. But your idea above has some credence.

Lastly, Palmer should also be in the mix, if the bid gets too high on Kolbe.

 

[az jam]

I'm on the Kolb bandwagon. IMO he is the best available.

 

[Totally_Red]

I'm on the Kolb bandwagon. IMO he is the best available.

At what price? That is the $64,000 question IMO.

A Lamborghini may be the best available, but at $400,000 a pop it's a little pricey for Joe Six Pack. Kolb may be the best available but is he a wise investment at the reported price?

 

[moklerman]

The timeline is the final thing. That's why Whiz and Co didn't try and go Gabbert. They want someone to jump in right now, someone better than Orton, it's obvious because they will have to spend and trade more to get Kolb.

I don't understand how you're coming to that conclusion with Kolb. You say they want to win right away and don't have time to develop a QB(Gabbert) but then you jump to the conclusion that Kolb is a win-now option? Dude has 7 starts in his career and the last two didn't look too good at all. Not only that, he's coming to a new system if he signs with the Cardinals.

Look what happened to his predecessor when he just changed teams. Changing teams in addition to changing systems can have a dramatic impact on a QB and for a QB who really hasn't established himself, it's a huge gamble.

As unspectacular as Orton is in general, he does offer a team the "knowing what you're getting" option with a little space left in the potential ceiling. He's done what he does in two entirely different settings so adaptability is a plus and he's shown that he feeds his WR's which is exactly what, I assume, Arizona wants.

I agree that there is a possibility that Kolb's ceiling might be higher than Orton's but his risk and price are definitely higher too.

Larry Fitzgerald is a great receiver, and I want him to stay. Sign Orton and I'd bet Fitz is on the phone 5 minutes later telling his Agent the Cards don't want to win now, or atleast they aren't trying.

Well, Larry holding the team hostage isn't exactly a good scenario. He's my favorite receiver in the league right now but no NFL team worth their salt should care what the WR thinks. Fitz is a great physical talent but he hasn't shown himself to be a great evaluator of NFL personnel as far as I know.

If the coach and GM pick a QB they think is best for the team, then Larry just has to roll with it. I happen to think he was a loud voice in the ML decision last year and I think it's going to hurt the team if they let him influence decisions.

 

[vinnymac]

It is obvious that the cardinals want to keep Fitz, but i don't think he is holding this team hostage. If anything the qb held this team hostage. I do prefer Orton over Kolb due to experience. The Cardinals are in a win know situtation or they would have drafted a qb. If the reports about Bulger not wanting to come to Arizona are true then the Cardinals have few option. I wouldn't mind McNabb for the reason he has been practicing with the team already. Due to the short off season Mcnabb make sense. Saying all this i never been a McNabb fan, but he does give the Cardinals the best chance of winning now.

 

[moklerman]

It is obvious that the cardinals want to keep Fitz, but i don't think he is holding this team hostage.

But the scenario being presented was that the Cardinals choosing/signing Orton would affect whether or not Fitz was happy, i.e. would re-sign with the Cardinals.

I can't really say for sure what I think about the situation in general. I can certainly imagine the Cardinals doing things certain ways with Fitz's happiness specifically in mind. And I think it's a slippery slope to cater to a guy, even if he is a great player.

 

[Cardiac]

It is obvious that the cardinals want to keep Fitz, but i don't think he is holding this team hostage. If anything the qb held this team hostage. I do prefer Orton over Kolb due to experience. The Cardinals are in a win know situtation or they would have drafted a qb. If the reports about Bulger not wanting to come to Arizona are true then the Cardinals have few option. I wouldn't mind McNabb for the reason he has been practicing with the team already. Due to the short off season Mcnabb make sense. Saying all this i never been a McNabb fan, but he does give the Cardinals the best chance of winning now.

According to local reporters there is ZERO chance that McNabb becomes a Cardinal. The Cards don't like/want him.

 

[vinnymac]

According to local reporters there is ZERO chance that McNabb becomes a Cardinal. The Cards don't like/want him.

I wouldn't know why. McNabb has always had great games in AZ.

 

[vinnymac]

Plus isn't this the year the Cardinals Play the East? If so, then the Cardinals need a QB that is also familar with the East with the short offseason.

 

[AZCARDSFANATIC]

So we really want Orton? The Broncs had a worse record than us last year, but that must not have been Orton's fault. As far as comparing the 2 QBs, I love how people leave out the facts. Kolb (like every other good QB) did and will struggle a bit while he learns more. Orton is not a good QB, ask around, watch tape, not even if he was a Free Agent.

Sarcasm aside, the Broncos record last year was not Orton's fault, and to put it in perspective consider this. He had his worst win/loss season last year while having one of his better statistical. I do not claim Orton is great, but you sell him very short. He has never had a good receiver and made Brandon Lloyd a stud, no running game. He had a decent bears D his rookie year. Also Denver had one of the highest 20+ receptions in the NFL lsat year. Denvers issue the last 2 years has not been QB, but defense and running game. Orton plays within himself and knows what he is capable of. That alone makes him a good QB, give him some actual receiving talent and you will be suprised.

 

[Cardiac]

I wouldn't know why. McNabb has always had great games in AZ.

The list of QB's that have had good games in AZ isn't a short one.

McNabb's leadership style is more of a have fun and goof around type then any elite QB in the NFL. According to Wolfley he doesn't put in the extra time in the film room and isn't the veteran presence we need to help develop Skelton. He has accuracy issues at times and has only had success in a WC type offense.

I get why people have McNabb on their short list as the Cards QB but Whiz and Co. simply don't want him.