Imperial College and Oxford Viral Propagation Models

Discussion in 'Politics and Religion' started by nidan, Mar 26, 2020.

  1. nidan

    nidan Oscar Contributor

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    Don't have a link but was just talking to a friend that is close to these folks.

    The imperial College model is pretty much what most world governments are using and it but there is also one from Oxford which shows the other end of the spectrum.

    The Oxford model worked back from the count of fatalities to estimate the number of people infected and not showing symptoms. When you do that you get a MUCH larger infected population.

    What had not occurred to me is that the implication of the Oxford model is that the herd immunity is building up much faster than expected. Not Trump fast but much faster
     
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  2. Dback Jon

    Dback Jon Killer Snail Contributor

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    And the truth is probably in-between. Too many unknowns at this point - when did it get here, and how quickly has it been circulating. Without testing, a great unknown.
     
  3. LoyaltyisaCurse

    LoyaltyisaCurse IF AND WHEN HEALTHY...

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  4. nidan

    nidan Oscar Contributor

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    Exactly
     
  5. SunsTzu

    SunsTzu Registered User

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    Yep. Best to prepare for the worst and hope for the best considering it's literally life and death.
     
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  6. elindholm

    elindholm edited for content

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    That sounds similar to what that Stanford(?) guy is saying too.

    The "good" news about the Oxford hypothesis, if it's true, is that we'll get through the worst of this within another few infection cycles, say by early May. The bad news is that we won't have flattened the curve, and April will be very, very bad.
     
  7. Russ Smith

    Russ Smith The Original Whizzinator Contributor

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    All of this is related to what the experts have been saying for weeks too. That the "problem" in this sort of thing is if you the expert do your job well, less people are going to die than the models predicted. And because of that, someone like Trump is going to say see they exaggerated the problem they tried to scare people they don't want me to get re-elected etc. The reality is when they give projections there are an incredible number of variables, and in this, one of the biggest ones is an administration that doesn't believe in science and thus might not take the advice of experts.

    Those projections were, and still are, entirely possible if people don't do what they need to do.

    A Harvard scientist did a study saying over 330 thousand people died needlessly of AIDS, in South Africa alone, because of denialism in the government.
     

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