I'm really rooting for Elijah Jones

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I think the Jags think Zay Jones is cooked.

Jalen McMillian, Luke McCaffrey, Javon Baker.

I also liked Devontez Walker and would have been ok with Troy Franklin there as well.

I like Wilson. Seems like he's had an awesome offseason. I think health is just such a gamble that I would have wanted more protection. And guys like McMillian, MCCaffrey and Baker might have been able to step into the slot day 1 over Dortch.

I obviously hope all the guys we have become awesome. Just cynical side of me sees injury prone wr, possibly cooked Wr and a 5'7" WR as our main depth. Again they may be awesome this year though. Hope so.
Right on, I sincerely appreciate that you actually laid it out.
 

bankybruce

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I think the Jags think Zay Jones is cooked.

Jalen McMillian, Luke McCaffrey, Javon Baker.

I also liked Devontez Walker and would have been ok with Troy Franklin there as well.

I like Wilson. Seems like he's had an awesome offseason. I think health is just such a gamble that I would have wanted more protection. And guys like McMillian, MCCaffrey and Baker might have been able to step into the slot day 1 over Dortch.

I obviously hope all the guys we have become awesome. Just cynical side of me sees injury prone wr, possibly cooked Wr and a 5'7" WR as our main depth. Again they may be awesome this year though. Hope so.
I wanted Franklin and would have loved him there. As for Zay, I think the Cardinals wanted a veteran presence in the locker room and he would have been signed regardless. You can't go into the season with your most experienced WR being Dortch and Wilson, and 3 rookie plus crap in Moore and Pascal. Keep in mind that KC made an offer and wanted Zay.
 

SoonerLou

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I wanted Franklin and would have loved him there. As for Zay, I think the Cardinals wanted a veteran presence in the locker room and he would have been signed regardless. You can't go into the season with your most experienced WR being Dortch and Wilson, and 3 rookie plus crap in Moore and Pascal. Keep in mind that KC made an offer and wanted Zay.
For sure.

KC also wanted Rodney Hudson and the Cards forced them to settle for Creed Humphrey.

However, yea I get the signing of Zay. Just hope it pays off.
 

Chopper0080

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I think the Jags think Zay Jones is cooked.

Jalen McMillian, Luke McCaffrey, Javon Baker.

I also liked Devontez Walker and would have been ok with Troy Franklin there as well.

I like Wilson. Seems like he's had an awesome offseason. I think health is just such a gamble that I would have wanted more protection. And guys like McMillian, MCCaffrey and Baker might have been able to step into the slot day 1 over Dortch.

I obviously hope all the guys we have become awesome. Just cynical side of me sees injury prone wr, possibly cooked Wr and a 5'7" WR as our main depth. Again they may be awesome this year though. Hope so.
Agree with this.
 

BritCard

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Really? Garrett Williams had 1st round tape. It was only because of the knee injury that he dropped. Williams will make the biggest 2nd season improvement.

Garrett Williams did not have 1st round tape.

Tearing your ACL does not drop you from top 32 to 72. Especially one that was in season and the player is already well into his recovery. It had been 6 months by the draft.

Jeffery Simmons tore his ACL while combine training and still went #19. Caleb Farley went #21 coming off an ACL with a bad spine.

At worst his ACL cost him 10 spots. Probably not even that.
 

bankybruce

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Garrett Williams did not have 1st round tape.

Tearing your ACL does not drop you from top 32 to 72. Especially one that was in season and the player is already well into his recovery. It had been 6 months by the draft.

Jeffery Simmons tore his ACL while combine training and still went #19. Caleb Farley went #21 coming off an ACL with a bad spine.

At worst his ACL cost him 10 spots. Probably not even that.

He was projected as high as the 11th pick prior to the knee injury. He also had a ton of 1st round projections prior. This site tracks them for all players.

 

kerouac9

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He was projected as high as the 11th pick prior to the knee injury. He also had a ton of 1st round projections prior. This site tracks them for all players.

Many of the mocks tracked in that database are not credible. The one that ranked him highest also had Will Levis going #1 overall.

This is like citing non-statistical vibes from one’s experience on ESPN’s mock draft machine.

Only probably worse.
 

bankybruce

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Many of the mocks tracked in that database are not credible. The one that ranked him highest also had Will Levis going #1 overall.

This is like citing non-statistical vibes from one’s experience on ESPN’s mock draft machine.

Only probably worse.
That's not the argument though. It's in response to someone saying no one had 1st round tape on him. That's not true, people did. You can argue the validity of thier opinion, sure, but that same argument can be made about all opinions here. The fact is, some out there saw him as 1st round talent prior to the knee injury.
 

PACardsFan

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Garrett Williams did not have 1st round tape.

Tearing your ACL does not drop you from top 32 to 72. Especially one that was in season and the player is already well into his recovery. It had been 6 months by the draft.

Jeffery Simmons tore his ACL while combine training and still went #19. Caleb Farley went #21 coming off an ACL with a bad spine.

At worst his ACL cost him 10 spots. Probably not even that.
You couldn’t be more wrong. Having grown up in Syracuse, I watch Syracuse EVERY week. They are not a top 20 program, but Williams was as legit as any player that has come out of that school since McNabb. Take it from someone who watched him every week, his tape was ABSOLUTELY 1st round tape.
 

kerouac9

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That's not the argument though. It's in response to someone saying no one had 1st round tape on him. That's not true, people did. You can argue the validity of thier opinion, sure, but that same argument can be made about all opinions here. The fact is, some out there saw him as 1st round talent prior to the knee injury.
I mean, what are we even talking about here if I can just say my kid thought he was a first rounder?
 

BritCard

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You couldn’t be more wrong. Having grown up in Syracuse, I watch Syracuse EVERY week. They are not a top 20 program, but Williams was as legit as any player that has come out of that school since McNabb. Take it from someone who watched him every week, his tape was ABSOLUTELY 1st round tape.

The draft doesn't lie.

If he had 1st round tape he would have gone in the 1st round. ACL injury or not. There is a tonne of evidence of injuries such as ACL's barely effecting draft position any more, especially if they are well into recovery by the draft.

Jameson Williams tore his ACL in the Natty and still went #9. David Ojabo tore his achilles on his Pro Day and went 45th.

Even as far back as 2015 Todd Gurley went 10th coming off an ACL.

I already mentioned Simmons and Farley.

You aren't dropping to #72 if you have first round tape. That's just a fact.
 

BritCard

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He was projected as high as the 11th pick prior to the knee injury. He also had a ton of 1st round projections prior. This site tracks them for all players.


It says only 8.1% of mocks had him first round, and mocks are trash anyway. People throw them out like confetti because when they are massively wrong nobody remembers, but if they get one right they can say "I said that guy would go 45th to the Ravens. I'm smart".

Grinding the mocks has him averaging mid round 2 at best before his final college season but those are always bogus. The draft business doesn't get serious until after the season when players have declared and they start seriously grinding the tape. So the true draft expectation doesn't normally show until February ish at the earliest.

I'm not saying Williams is a JAG. He showed some nice flashes in limited time last year and I hope he can make a leap this year. Just he was seriously never a first round talent, or he would have gone 1st round.



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It says only 8.1% of mocks had him first round, and mocks are trash anyway. People throw them out like confetti because when they are massively wrong nobody remembers, but if they get one right they can say "I said that guy would go 45th to the Ravens. I'm smart".

Grinding the mocks has him averaging mid round 2 at best before his final college season but those are always bogus. The draft business doesn't get serious until after the season when players have declared and they start seriously grinding the tape. So the true draft expectation doesn't normally show until February ish at the earliest.

I'm not saying Williams is a JAG. He showed some nice flashes in limited time last year and I hope he can make a leap this year. Just he was seriously never a first round talent, or he would have gone 1st round.



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bankybruce

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Funny how he went from no one to 8.1%. My question is, what was the percentage of mocks pre knee injury. If it's 8.1% overall, I'd reckon that it was much higher prior to his injury which is the exact point being made.

Here is a poorly drawn line of his knee injury. Notice most all "experts" show 1st round? And at least 50% are 1st rounders?
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BritCard

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Funny how he went from no one to 8.1%. My question is, what was the percentage of mocks pre knee injury. If it's 8.1% overall, I'd reckon that it was much higher prior to his injury which is the exact point being made.

Here is a poorly drawn line of his knee injury. Notice most all "experts" show 1st round? And at least 50% are 1st rounders?
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His injury was 6 months before the draft, any mocks before that date are even more worthless than normal. Anything before Feb is in the year of the draft is useless.

Any mocks done that include the whole draft eligible class that far before the end of the season are done on vibes. Nobody has watched any film of players that far in advance, especially of underclassmen who might not declare.

I've shown you half a dozen examples of ACL injuries not affecting draft position so why would it affect Williams?
 

CardNots

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His injury was 6 months before the draft, any mocks before that date are even more worthless than normal. Anything before Feb is in the year of the draft is useless.

Any mocks done that include the whole draft eligible class that far before the end of the season are done on vibes. Nobody has watched any film of players that far in advance, especially of underclassmen who might not declare.

I've shown you half a dozen examples of ACL injuries not affecting draft position so why would it affect Williams?
sometimes false hope isn’t a bad thing, it’s still hope and most times it quells our dry period we all have to deal with this time of year.

You more than made your point…
 

bankybruce

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The draft doesn't lie.

If he had 1st round tape he would have gone in the 1st round. ACL injury or not. There is a tonne of evidence of injuries such as ACL's barely effecting draft position any more, especially if they are well into recovery by the draft.

Jameson Williams tore his ACL in the Natty and still went #9. David Ojabo tore his achilles on his Pro Day and went 45th.

Even as far back as 2015 Todd Gurley went 10th coming off an ACL.

I already mentioned Simmons and Farley.

You aren't dropping to #72 if you have first round tape. That's just a fact.
That is not a fact. Simmons was a top 10 prospect, Garrett Williams had 1st round potential, not top 10. Farley re-tore his ACL at the end of his rookie season after Tennessee admitted is was a gamble taking him at the end of the 1st round, but did so because he was a projected top 10 pick prior to the injury.

Most of those names were top 10 locks, not potential first round picks.

Myles Jack, Landon Dickerson, Marcus Lattimore, Daquan Bowers, Jack Ikegwuonu, Sidney Jones, Josh Sweat, Keenan Allen, Stefan Diggs, Jaylon Smith and Gronk are other who fell out of the first after getting first round grades.

Teams also have more better medical processes now too and know a lot more than we do about worst case recoveries.

Then you have Laiatu Latu who stayed an extra year in college because his stock fell due to injury and he ended up back in the 1st round.

But go on with your facts. And keep moving the goal posts. Instead of, "there was no first round tape on him", you're now trying to compare him to others. Just admit you're wrong and let's move on. If you move the goal post anymore, we'll be in the CFL.
 
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PACardsFan

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The draft doesn't lie.

If he had 1st round tape he would have gone in the 1st round. ACL injury or not. There is a tonne of evidence of injuries such as ACL's barely effecting draft position any more, especially if they are well into recovery by the draft.

Jameson Williams tore his ACL in the Natty and still went #9. David Ojabo tore his achilles on his Pro Day and went 45th.

Even as far back as 2015 Todd Gurley went 10th coming off an ACL.

I already mentioned Simmons and Farley.

You aren't dropping to #72 if you have first round tape. That's just a fact.
Jameson Williams went to Alabama, David Ojabo went to Michigan, and Todd Gurley went to Georgia. They are all top 10 legit programs. So, their injuries were offset by where they played. Syracuse does NOT have the brand name for a guy like Garrett to overcome a serious knee injury. Now, THAT’S a fact.
 

BACH

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Many of the mocks tracked in that database are not credible. The one that ranked him highest also had Will Levis going #1 overall.

This is like citing non-statistical vibes from one’s experience on ESPN’s mock draft machine.

Only probably worse.
But that still makes your position wrong. He was consistently rated as a low 1st/high 2nd across the board pre his injury. That is a fact.

Data is there, but you look at the data. Ignore it. And then take the one outlier of that data to prove that the data is wrong and you are right.

That is not how it works, sorry. You are wrong on this and the data supports it.

Your argumentation is even severely flawed, because these are not definate ratings. A player rating can move around a lot during the season based on the player's performance and more importantly based on other players moving up the board. But fact is that he was consistently ranked in the 20's and 30's pre injury.

What happened post injury for him to slide? Could be many factors, but he was still rated in the 20's and 30's pre injury.
 
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